Here are the NBP staff predictions for Best Original Screenplay. For an overview of all awards predictions, visit our Oscar Predictions page.
Click each heading to view individual staff rankings, or search/sort by the drop-downs below:
NBP Staff Picks
| Matt Neglia | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 6 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 9/24/2025 10:20 AM |
| Dan Bayer | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 2 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 6 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 7 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 8 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 9/17/2025 1:50 PM |
| Alyssa Christian | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 4 |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 5 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 6 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 7 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▲ 3 |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 8/30/2025 7:05 AM |
| Sara Clements | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▲ 2 |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 6 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 2 |
| 9 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | NEW |
| 10 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | ▼ 9 |
Last Updated:
| 9/22/2025 11:21 PM |
| Nadia Dalimonte | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 4 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 2 |
Last Updated:
| 9/19/2025 1:05 PM |
| Cody Dericks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 7 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▲ 2 |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) |
Last Updated:
| 9/18/2025 5:51 PM |
| Daniel Howat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 7 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | THE RIVALS OF AMZIAH KING (James Montague & Andrew Patterson) |
Last Updated:
| 9/17/2025 2:35 PM |
| Megan Lachinski | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | ▲ 8 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | ▼ 8 |
| 10 |
Last Updated:
| 9/1/2025 1:51 PM |
| Giovanni Lago | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 8 | MATERIALISTS (Celine Song) | |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 9/11/2025 10:21 PM |
| Will Mavity | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 4 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 1 |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 3 |
Last Updated:
| 9/16/2025 11:21 PM |
| Tom O'Brien | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 7 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 2 |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 9/15/2025 4:36 PM |
| Josh Parham | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▲ 1 |
| 10 | FATHER MOTHER SISTER BROTHER (Jim Jarmusch) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 9/17/2025 4:51 PM |
| Joselyn Safadi | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | THE RIVALS OF AMZIAH KING (James Montague & Andrew Patterson) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 7 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 8 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 8/26/2025 9:21 PM |
| Ema Sasic | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 6 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 7 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 8 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 9 | NOUVELLE VAGUE (Holly Gent, Laetitia Masson, Vincent Palmo Jr. & Michèle Pétin) | |
| 10 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) |
Last Updated:
| 9/25/2025 3:35 PM |
