By Tom O'Brien
As stated yesterday by Matt, we will be continuing to provide you with the best Oscar coverage we possibly can for the 2018 Awards Season. With that said, each week in August, we'll take on the four acting categories and try to determine the 10 performers who, at this moment, stand the best chance at scoring those coveted Oscar nominations.
We'll start this week with the already-hot race for Best Supporting Actress race. In alphabetical order, here, as we see it, are the top contenders.
Amy Adams - "Backseat"
"Overdue" is the one word most associated with Amy Adams when talking about the Oscar race, but she may just hold the winning ticket here as Lynne Cheney in Adam McKay's "Backseat," a biographical drama about Lynne's husband, Vice-President Dick Cheney (Christian Bale). In Bale and Adams' last pairing, "American Hustle," both received Oscar nominations, and given the relevancy of the story, there's no reason to think that it can't happen again.
Olivia Colman - "The Favourite"
I'm including Colman here with an asterisk because it's unclear right now whether she's planning to go lead or supporting for director Yorgos Lanthimos' film. If she's going to go Supporting, she will be a formidable presence as 18th century Queen Anne, who sits back to watch two young cousins (Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone) vie to carry the Queen's favor. Colman and Weisz both worked together on director Lanthimos' most acclaimed film, "The Lobster."
Vera Farmiga - "The Front Runner"
Farmiga already has one nomination under her belt ("Up In The Air"), and she's likely to be in the mix again as the wife of philandering Presidential candidate Gary Hart (Hugh Jackman) under the direction of Jason Reitman. The role of the aggrieved wife can be an Oscar-baity role (Think Beatrice Straight in "Network"), and with an actress as highly regarded as Farmiga, another Oscar nomination could be in the works.
Claire Foy - "First Man"
Likely familiar to Oscar voters, thanks to her Golden Globe-winning role in Netflix's "The Crown," Foy has landed what looks to be a plum supporting role in the "La La Land" follow-up by Oscar-winning director Damien Chazelle. In "First Man," Foy plays Janet Shearon, the first wife of astronaut Neil Armstrong (Ryan Gosling). With its high placement at both the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals, "First Man" looks to be a potential awards player, and Foy (Who is having a prolific year) may well be included in its anticipated awards chances.
Nicole Kidman - "Boy Erased"
Nicole Kidman, whose last nomination was as the understanding mother in "Lion," might do it again here in a similar role in Joel Edgerton's film focusing on a Baptist family whose son (Lucas Hedges) is gay and sent to a conversion camp. Kidman, a four-time nominee including a win for "The Hours," has been a staple at the Oscars, and if the film itself can live up to the buzz that its trailer received a few weeks ago, she may be back at the ceremony again.
Regina King - "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Over the past years, King has proven to a magnet for Emmys - she has won two and is up again this year. And, this year, based on the earlier trailer for Barry Jenkins' "If Beale Street Could Talk," she may be a factor in the Oscar race as well. As Gloria, the loving mother of Tish (Kiki Layne), a teenage girl who finds herself pregnant, King is just heartbreaking with only a few looks. And Barry Jenkins knows just how to direct an actor to an Oscar. Just ask Mahershala Ali.
Andrea Riseborough - "Burden"
Riseborough, who has been offering terrific support for years in such films as "Birdman," "Battle Of The Sexes" and this year's "The Death Of Stalin" and "Nancy," grabs the spotlight in Andrew Heckler's "Burden" as Judy, a white trash single mother who falls for a good-looking guy and good-hearted guy (Garrett Hedlund) unaware that he was actually raised by the Ku Klux Klan. The anguish that she feels at being attracted to this man, who shows warm compassion towards her and her son, while being repulsed at what he believes feels like a complete movie in itself.
Margot Robbie - "Mary Queen Of Scots"
Margot Robbie showed up on Oscar's Best Actress radar last year for "I, Tonya" and may return this year in a role that couldn't be more different than Tonya Harding. Elizabeth I (Robbie), Queen of England and Ireland, is confronted by her cousin Mary (Saoirse Ronan), Queen of Scotland who aims to face her cousin to take over the throne. The pairing of these two Oscar nominees will undoubtedly raise the profile of both, and with Elizabeth likely being a supporting role, that could give Robbie a leg up for a nomination.
Sissy Spacek - "The Old Man And The Gun"
Spacek is no stranger to the Oscar race, with 6 nominations including her big win for 1980's "Coal Miner's Daughter." However, her screen appearances of late have been rare, so her pairing with fellow Oscar winner Robert Redford in David Lowery's ("A Ghost Story") latest film may hit the bullseye with the Academy's voting demographic. While not quite a co-lead, Spacek's screen time as Redford's romantic interest appears substantial enough to make for a hefty supporting presence.
Emma Stone - "The Favourite"
The casting of Emma Stone, who exudes such a contemporary American sensibility to her roles in a story about court rivalry in 18th Century England, has to evoke curiosity, and if early screening reports are to be believed, Stone knocks it out of the park. Abigail Masham (Stone) comes to visit her cousin Sarah Churchill (Rachel Weisz) who is busy currying favor with Queen Anne (Olivia Colman). But when Anne begins to show interest in Abigail instead of Sarah, claws are sharpened. The premise offers the possibilities of a big performance, one which Stone has in the past shown that she is more than capable of delivering.
This is, of course, not a definitive list. We've all been through enough Oscar races to know that, at this early stage, the fortunes of some unknowns will rise and those of some early favorites will fall. So let's call this a snapshot of where the Supporting Actress is at this moment, and we'll follow every shift in the contest here at Next Best Picture.
Next week we'll look at the likely candidates for Best Supporting Actor. Take a moment to also check out our Oscar Predictions across other categories here.
Buckle up. It's going to be quite a ride.
You can follow Tom and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @thomaseobrien
Get Out (15) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, BOFCA, BRA, KCFCC, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PFFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, WAFCA
Lady Bird (10) - CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCC
The Shape Of Water (9) - AWFJ, CC, DFWFCA, LAOFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, PGA, StLFCA
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (8) - AACTA, BAFTA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, SAG
The Florida Project (4) - DFCSA, NYFCO, SFFCC, TFCA
Call Me By Your Name (3) - GALECA, IFP, LAFCA
Dunkirk (2) - DFCC, FFCC
Mudbound (2) - BFCC, NYFCO
The Post (2) - NBR, NTFCA
Detroit - NAACP
A Ghost Story - UFCA
Girls Trip - NAACP
Logan - CIFCC
Phantom Thread - BSFC
Guillermo del Toro (18) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, DGA, GG, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, StLFCA
Greta Gerwig (10) - COFCA, GALECA, GFCA,HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, NBR, NSFC, SDFCS, TFCA
Christopher Nolan (10) - AACTA, AFCC, DFCC, CFCA, FFCC, OFCS, PCC, SFCS, UFCA, WAFCA
Jordan Peele (10) - AAFCA, BFCC, BRA, CIFCC, IFP, NAACP, NCFCA, OFCC, PFCC, SPIRIT
Sean Baker (3) - DFCSA, LFCC, NYFCC
Paul Thomas Anderson (3) - BOFCA, BSFC, VFCC
Luca Guadagnino - LAFCA
Dee Rees - NYFCO
Gary Oldman (23) - AACTA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, CC, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SAG, SFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA, WFCC
Timothee Chalamet (12) - AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, FFCC, GALECA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, NYFCC, PCC, SPIRIT
Daniel Kaluuya (8) - AAFCA, BRA, BSFC, CIFCC, GFCA, LVFCS, NAACP, NSFC
James Franco (7) - CC, DFCC, DFCSA, GG, HFCS, IFP, NFCS
Daniel Day-Lewis (4) - PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC
Andy Serkis (2) - SFFCC, UFCA
Harry Dean Stanton - IFJA
Tom Hanks - NBR
James McAvoy - SDFCS
Frances McDormand (21) - AAFCA, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA, WFCC
Sally Hawkins (19) - AFCC, BSFC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GALECA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, UFCA
Saoirse Ronan (9) - CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, GG, IFJA, IFP, NYFCC, SFCS, VFCC
Margot Robbie (5) - AACTA, CC, FFCC, NYFCO, SFFCC
Natalie Paul - BRA
Meryl Streep - NBR
Octavia Spencer - NAACP
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (25) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCSA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, SFCS, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC
Sam Rockwell (19) - AACTA, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SFCA, SPIRIT, WAFCA
Michael Stuhlbarg (2) - GALECA, LAOFCS
Idris Elba - NAACP
Laurence Fishburne - AAFCA
Hugh Grant - LFCC
Woody Harrelson - PFCC
Richard Jenkins - StLFCA
Jason Mitchell - BRA
Patrick Stewart - LAOFCS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf (28) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA
Allison Janney (19) - AACTA, AFCA, BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, DFCSA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LAOFCS, NFCS, NYFCO, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SPIRIT
Tiffany Haddish (4) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP, NYFCC
Mary J. Blige - BFCC
Lesley Manville - LFCC
Tatiana Maslany - UFCA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out (34) - AAFCA, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BRA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, IFP, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NAACP, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WGA
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (9) - AACTA, BAFTA, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, PFCS
Lady Bird (8) - BSFC, DFWFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, PCC, SFCS, SPIRIT
Phantom Thread (2) - NBR, NYFCC
The Shape Of Water - StLFCA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name (15) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, CFCA, FFCC, KCFCC, LVFCS, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, SFCA, SFFCC, USC, WGA
The Disaster Artist (8) - CIFCC, GFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, StLFCA
Mudbound (3) - BFCC, COFCA, WAFCA
Logan (2) - IFJA, KCFCC
Molly's Game (2) - LAOFCS, NCFCA
Blade Runner 2049 - UFCA
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coco (38) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA
The Breadwinner (2) - LAFCA, TFCA
The LEGO Batman Movie - DFCSA
Loving Vincent - AWFJ
My Life As A Zucchini - SDFCS
Blade Runner 2049 (28) - AFCA, ASC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, HFCS, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA
Dunkirk (5) - AFCA, BSFC, GFCA, SDFCS, SFCA
The Shape Of Water (3) - DFWFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO
Call Me By Your Man - SPIRIT
Mudbound - NYFCC
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Phantom Thread (6) - BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, OSCAR, SDFCS, SFCS
Beauty And The Beast (2) - PFCS, SDFCS
Blade Runner 2049 - LVFCS
I, Tonya - CDG
The Shape Of Water - CDG
Wonder Woman - CDG
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver (11) - BAFTA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA
Dunkirk (9) - ACE, AWFJ, BOFCA, CC, LAFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCS
I, Tonya (2) - ACE, SPIRIT
Coco - ACE
A Ghost Story - BSFC
Jane - ACE
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour (4) - BAFTA, CC, MHG, OSCAR
Phantom Thread - CIFCC
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049 (9) - ADG, CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, SFCS, WAFCA
The Shape Of Water (9) - ADG, BAFTA, CC, NFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA
Coco - ADG
Logan - ADG
BEST SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk (3) - BAFTA, CAS, OSCAR
BEST SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk (2) - BAFTA, OSCAR
Blade Runner 2049 - MPSE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
War For The Planet Of The Apes (8) - CC, CIFCC, LAOFCS, NCFCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, VES
Blade Runner 2049 (7) - BAFTA, FFCC, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, OSCAR, StLFCA
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Shape Of Water (14) - AFCA, BAFTA, BOFCA, CC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, UFCA
Phantom Thread (9) - BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, LAFCA, PCC, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA
Blade Runner 2049 (2) - FFCC, WAFCA
Coco - PFCC
Dunkirk - GFCA
Get Out - BRA
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Coco (6) - CC, GFCA, HFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS
Detroit - AAFCA
The Greatest Showman - GG
Mudbound - BRA
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BPM (Beats Per Minute) (10) - AFCC, COFCA, FFCC, GALECA, LAFCA, NYFCC, OFCS, SFFCC, VFCC, WAFCA
The Square (8) - AWFJ, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, LAOFCS, OFCC, TFCA
First They Killed My Father (4) - BOFCA, LVFCS, PFCS, SFCA
In The Fade (4) - CC, GG, KCFCC, NYFCO
Raw (4) - CIFCC, NTFCA, PCC, SFCS
A Fantastic Woman (3) - BFCC, OSCAR, SPIRIT
Thelma (3) - HFCS, SDFCS, UFCA
Graduation (2) - PFCC, NSFC
Okja (2) - AFCA, NCFCA
The Wound (2) - AAFCA, BRA
Faces Places - IFJA
Foxtrot - NBR
Loveless - LAFCA
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Jane (17) - AFCC, CFCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA
Faces Places (14) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, SPIRIT, TFCA
City Of Ghosts (3) - DFWFCA, PCC, PFCS
Step (3) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP
Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond (2) - DFCSA, LAOFCS
Kedi (2) - AFCC, NCFCA
Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story - NYFCO
Dawson City: Frozen Time - BSFC
Ex Libris: The New York Public Library - VFCC
The Farthest - DFCC
Icarus - OSCAR
Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 - IFJA
Oklahoma City - OFCC
Strong Island - IFP