Predicting The 89th Academy Awards: Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design & Costume Design2/22/2017  By Matt Neglia Our final three tech awards for the 89th Academy Awards are here. I was anxiously awaiting the results of the guilds to tell me something with these categories and I think I have my mind made up on at least 2 out of the three categories. With only a few days left until the big show, here is my in-depth analysis of Best Makeup & Hair Styling, Production Design and Costume Design for this year's Oscar. Click below to read my in-depth analysis. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The nominees are: "A Man Called Ove" "Star Trek Beyond" "Suicide Squad" "Jackie" won the Critics Choice Award while "Florence Foster Jenkins" won BAFTA which does not help us out here in the slightest. Both "Star Trek Beyond" & "Suicide Squad" picked up awards from the Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Guild. I'm not going to bore you with stats here because quite frankly there are none. When in doubt, go with the best reviewed movie that everyone has heard of. Realistically, any film can win here though. PREDICTED WINNER: "Star Trek Beyond" RUNNER UP: "Suicide Squad" BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN This year for Best Production Design, it's most likely between the Best Picture frontrunner and the BAFTA winner. The nominees are: "Arrival" "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" "Hail, Caesar!" "La La Land" "Passengers" And here are the stats for the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA through the years with Oscar.
For "Arrival," & "Hail, Caesar!," these are the films that won the Oscar for Production Design without a win from Critics Choice, ADG or BAFTA from 1996 till the present day: 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2002: Chicago 2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2012: Lincoln 2004 remains the only year since the ADG have been around, that a film which only won BAFTA, went on to win the Oscar and that was "The Aviator." This does not bode well for "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them." It is also worth mentioning that BAFTA has recognized the Harry Potter world more than the Oscars ever did, including a win in this category back in 2005. Call it British love. Previous ADG/Critics Choice combo winners have included "Avatar," "Hugo," "The Great Gatsby," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" & "Mad Max: Fury Road." That's 5 out of the 7 years that Critics Choice have been around. This bodes well for "La La Land" which is also heavily favored to win Costumes, which we will get to a second... PREDICTED WINNER: "La La Land" RUNNER UP: "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" BEST COSTUME DESIGN And now we come to one of the harder categories to predict the night of the Oscars. This is one of the tech awards which could make or break your Oscar pool with your friends. The nominees this year for Costume Design are: "Allied" "Fantastic Beats & Where To Find Them" "Florence Foster Jenkins" "Jackie" "La La Land" Here are the stats with the Critics Choice Awards, the Costume Designers Guild and the BAFTA and how they all matched up with the Oscars since the BAFTA's have been around in 1968.
In "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" & "La La Land's" defense, in the last 48 years, Best Costume Design & Production Design have matched 26 times (54%). 1971: Nicholas & Alexandra 1973: The Sting 1975: Barry Lyndon 1977: Star Wars 1979: All That Jazz 1980: Tess 1982: Gandhi 1983: Fanny & Alexander 1984: Amadeus 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1991: Bugsy 1995: Restoration 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2001: Moulin Rouge 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Aviator 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road Of those 26 films, 9 of them ended up winning Best Picture (35%). On top of all of that, the smallest Oscar haul for those Best Picture winning films was 6 awards for "Chicago" in 2002. So typically, in sweep like years, the Best Picture winner will typically take both awards. Within the sample size provided (1968-2015) the following films won Best Picture and only Production Design, not Costume Design: 1968: Oliver! 1970: Patton 1974: The Godfather Part 2 1985: Out Of Africa 1993: Schindler's List And these are the Best Picture Winners which won Costume Design but not Production Design: 1981: Chariots Of Fire 2000: Gladiator 2011: The Artist So while it would appear that the odds favor for "La La Land" to take both Production Design & Costume Design after winning both guild awards, both Critics Choice and BAFTA have been telling us who the winner would be in this category for the last 7 and 8 years respectively. It is also worth mentioning that no Contemporary Costume winner from the CDG has ever gone on to win the Oscar. We have seen the Oscar winner miss out in recent years with the CDG such as in 2011 & 2013. Both of those years, the Oscar went to the Critics Choice and BAFTA winner. It's very close but it is with these findings I conclude that Production Design & Costume Design will split this year and costumes will go to "Jackie" which would also act as a way to reward that film. PREDICTED WINNER: "Jackie" RUNNER UP: "La La Land" What do you think? Which films are you predicting to win these categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments below. You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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BEST PICTURE Parasite (27) - AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, GALECA, GFCA, HFCS, LAFCA, LEJA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, PCC, SAG, SEFCA, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (10) - CCA, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, LVFCS, NDFS, OFCC, SFBAFCC, StLFCA 1917 (7) - DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, HCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, PGA The Irishman (5) - AARP, NBR, NTFCA, NYFCC, SDFCS Marriage Story (5) - DFCC, GWNYFCA, IFJA, IFP, NFCS Knives Out (2) - CIC, PFCC Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (2) - FFCC, WFCC Dolemite Is My Name - BFCC Ford v Ferrari - IPA For Sama - BIFA Harriet - WFCC Joker - PFCS Little Women - BSFC Us - AAFCA BEST DIRECTOR Bong Joon-ho (27) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, GALECA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, LAFCA, LEJA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, PCC, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Sam Mendes (9) - CCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, KCFCC, MCFCA, NTFCA, PFCS, UFCA Martin Scorsese (7) - AARP, BFCC, DFCC, DFCS, OFCC, PFCC, SEFCA Quentin Tarantino (6) - AACTA, HFCS, IFCA, LVFCS, NBR, StLFCA Noah Baumbach (2) - HCA, NFCS Greta Gerwig (2) - CIC, NSFC Josh & Benny Safdie (2) - NYFCC, SDFCS Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre - IFP Kassi Lemmons - BFCC James Mangold - IPA Jordan Peele - AAFCA Celine Sciamma - FFCC Olivia Wilde - HCA Waad al-Kateab & Edward Watts - BIFA BEST ACTOR Adam Driver (30) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCC, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, IFP, KCFCC, NCFCA, NFCS, OAFFC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC Joaquin Phoenix (14) - CCA, DFCS, GG, HCA, HFCS, IFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, NYFCO, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS Adam Sandler (8) - AARP, AFCA, BOFCA, BSFC, LVFCS, NBR, OFCC, StLFCA Antonio Banderas (6) - EFA, GALECA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SFBAFCC Taron Egerton (2) - GG, IPA Eddie Murphy (2) - AAFCA, BFCC Christian Bale - IPA Josh O'Connor - BIFA BEST ACTRESS Lupita Nyong'o (27) - AFCA, AAFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, FFCC, GFCA, HCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, MCFCA, NCFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Renée Zellweger (13) - AARP, AFCC, BIFA, CCA, GALECA, GG, HFCS, IFCA, LVFCS, NBR, PFCS, SAG, SEFCA Scarlett Johansson (12) - DFCC, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, IPA, NFCS, OAFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, VFCC Awkwafina (5) - GG, HFCS, IFP, IPA, LEJA Mary Kay Place (2) - LAFCA, NSFC Saoirse Ronan (2) - AACTA, BSFC Charlize Theron (2) - NFCS, NTFCA Cynthia Erivo - WFCC Florence Pugh - NDFS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Brad Pitt (33) - AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, PFCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Joe Pesci (12) - DFCS, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, KCFCC, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, PFCC, SDFCS, UFCA Willem Dafoe (6) - COFCA, IFJA, IPA, LVFCS, NDFS, SFCS Song Kang-ho (4) - CIC, GALECA, LAFCA, PCC Tom Hanks (2) - AARP, NTFCA Jamie Foxx - AAFCA Shia LaBeouf - OAFCC Hugh Laurie - BIFA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laura Dern (20) - AARP, AFCC, BSFC, CCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, IFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, PFCS, SAG, SEFCA, TFCA, VFCC Jennifer Lopez (14) - AFCA, GALECA, HCA, IFJA, IPA, LAFCA, LEJA, NFCS, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, WAFCA Florence Pugh (11) - AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, MCFCA, NCFCA, UFCA Zhao Shuzhen (4) - CIC, HFCS, NTFCA, SDFCS Da'Vine Joy Randolph (3) - AAFCA, BFCC, KCFCC Margot Robbie (3) - AACTA, LVFCS, StLFCA Kathy Bates - NBR Ruthxjiah Bellenea - BIFA Thomasin McKenzie - PCC BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Little Women (15) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, FFCC, IFJA, KCFCC, LEJA, NCFCA, UFCA, WAFCA, WFCC The Irishman (10) - BFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, NBR, OFCC, OFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, TFCA Jojo Rabbit (6) - AACTA, HCA, NFCS, OAFFC, PFCS, SFBAFCC Joker - IPA Luce - SDFCS The Personal History Of David Copperfield - BIFA The Two Popes - LVFCS BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Parasite (19) - AFCA, AAFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, CFCA, COFCA, GALECA, GFCA, HCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCO, OFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, UFCA Marriage Story (14) - AARP, DFCC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, IFP, IPA, LAFCA, OAFFC, SDFCS, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (10) - BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, GG, HFCS, LVFCS, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, StLFCA Knives Out (8) - CIC, DFCS, HFCS, KCFCC, OFCC, PCC, PFCC, PFCS Uncut Gems (2) - FFCC, NBR Portrait Of A Lady On Fire - EFA Queen & Slim - BFCC BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 1917 (33) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, PCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (5) - BSFC, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC The Lighthouse (3) - NDFS, PFCC, SDFCS Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (2) - BOFCA, OFCC Ad Astra - DFCC Beats - BIFA BEST COSTUME DESIGN Dolemite Is My Name (7) - CCA, CIC, IPA, LEJA, LVFCS, SDFCS, SFCS Rocketman (3) - HCA, HFCS, PFCS Little Women - CFCA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - BIFA BEST FILM EDITING 1917 (5) - CCA, CIC, HCA, MCFCA, PFCS Ford v Ferrari (5) - IPA, LVFCS, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, WAFCA The Irishman (4) - AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA Apollo 11 (3) - ACE, LAFCA, UFCA Parasite (3) - ACE, LEJA, OFCS Uncut Gems (3) - AFCA, GWNYFCA, SFCS Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (2) - HFCS, StLFCA For Sama - BIFA Jojo Rabbit - ACE Knives Out - COFCA The Lighthouse - NDFS Toy Story 4 - ACE BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Bombshell (5) - CCA, CIC, HCA, LEJA, MUAHS Joker (2) - HFCS, MUAHS Downton Abbey - MUAHS The Personal History Of David Copperfield - BIFA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Joker (10) - CCA, DFCS, GFCA, GG, HCA, HFCS, IPA, LVFCS, NDFS, PCC 1917 (9) - AFCA, AFCC, DFWFCA, HFCS, IFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, PFCS, StLFCA Us (5) - CIC, COFCA, IFJA, OFCS, WAFCA Uncut Gems (4) - BOFCA, FFCC, OFCC, SFCS Little Women (2) - BSFC, CFCA Apollo 11 - UFCA I Lost My Body - LAFCA The Last Black Man In San Francisco - SFBAFCC Marriage Story - GWNYFCA BEST ORIGINAL SONG Wild Rose (7) - BIFA, CCA, DFCS, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, NDFS Rocketman (6) - CCA, GG, HFCS, IPA, LEJA, MCFCA Always Be My Maybe - CIC Frozen II - PFCS Harriet - LVFCS Toy Story 4 - IFCA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (12) - CCA, CFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA 1917 (4) - GFCA, LEJA, PFCS, SDFCS Knives Out - CIC Motherless Brooklyn - IPA Parasite - HFCS The Personal History Of David Copperfield - BIFA BEST SOUND EDITING 1917 (3) - LEJA, MCFCA, MPSE Ford v Ferrari (3) - HFCS, IPA, MPSE BEST SOUND MIXING 1917 (2) - LEJA, MCFCA Ford v Ferrari (2) - HFCS, IPA Beats - BIFA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Avengers: Endgame (8) - CCA, HCA, LEJA, LVFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, StLFCA 1917 (3) - CIC, DFCS, HFCS Ad Astra (3) - CFCA, SDFCS, SFCS Alita: Battle Angel (3) - FFCC, HFCS, IPA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Toy Story 4 (30) - AFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, KCFCC, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA I Lost My Body (13) - AFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BSFC, CIC, FFCC, LAFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, NYFCO, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, UFCA Missing Link (3) - GG, LVFCS, TFCA How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (2) - IFJA, NBR Abominable - AAFCA The Lion King - IPA BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Parasite (45) - AFCA, AAFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BIFA, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, NYFCC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (3) - FFCC, NYFCO, WFCC Pain and Glory (2) - AARP, LAFCA Truth and Justice - IPA BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Apollo 11 (35) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCC, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, KCFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Honeyland (7) - BSFC, DFCS, GALECA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCC American Factory (4) - IFP, LAFCA, OFCC, TFCA For Sama (4) - BIFA, EFA, IDA, IFJA One Child Nation (2) - PFCS, SDFCS 63 Up - IPA Amazing Grace - KCFCC The Black Godfather - AAFCA Knock Down The House - LEJA Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice - AARP Maiden - NBR Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am - BFCC AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
January 2020
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