Predicting The 89th Academy Awards: Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design & Costume Design2/22/2017  By Matt Neglia Our final three tech awards for the 89th Academy Awards are here. I was anxiously awaiting the results of the guilds to tell me something with these categories and I think I have my mind made up on at least 2 out of the three categories. With only a few days left until the big show, here is my in-depth analysis of Best Makeup & Hair Styling, Production Design and Costume Design for this year's Oscar. Click below to read my in-depth analysis. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The nominees are: "A Man Called Ove" "Star Trek Beyond" "Suicide Squad" "Jackie" won the Critics Choice Award while "Florence Foster Jenkins" won BAFTA which does not help us out here in the slightest. Both "Star Trek Beyond" & "Suicide Squad" picked up awards from the Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Guild. I'm not going to bore you with stats here because quite frankly there are none. When in doubt, go with the best reviewed movie that everyone has heard of. Realistically, any film can win here though. PREDICTED WINNER: "Star Trek Beyond" RUNNER UP: "Suicide Squad" BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN This year for Best Production Design, it's most likely between the Best Picture frontrunner and the BAFTA winner. The nominees are: "Arrival" "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" "Hail, Caesar!" "La La Land" "Passengers" And here are the stats for the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA through the years with Oscar.
For "Arrival," & "Hail, Caesar!," these are the films that won the Oscar for Production Design without a win from Critics Choice, ADG or BAFTA from 1996 till the present day: 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2002: Chicago 2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2012: Lincoln 2004 remains the only year since the ADG have been around, that a film which only won BAFTA, went on to win the Oscar and that was "The Aviator." This does not bode well for "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them." It is also worth mentioning that BAFTA has recognized the Harry Potter world more than the Oscars ever did, including a win in this category back in 2005. Call it British love. Previous ADG/Critics Choice combo winners have included "Avatar," "Hugo," "The Great Gatsby," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" & "Mad Max: Fury Road." That's 5 out of the 7 years that Critics Choice have been around. This bodes well for "La La Land" which is also heavily favored to win Costumes, which we will get to a second... PREDICTED WINNER: "La La Land" RUNNER UP: "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" BEST COSTUME DESIGN And now we come to one of the harder categories to predict the night of the Oscars. This is one of the tech awards which could make or break your Oscar pool with your friends. The nominees this year for Costume Design are: "Allied" "Fantastic Beats & Where To Find Them" "Florence Foster Jenkins" "Jackie" "La La Land" Here are the stats with the Critics Choice Awards, the Costume Designers Guild and the BAFTA and how they all matched up with the Oscars since the BAFTA's have been around in 1968.
In "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" & "La La Land's" defense, in the last 48 years, Best Costume Design & Production Design have matched 26 times (54%). 1971: Nicholas & Alexandra 1973: The Sting 1975: Barry Lyndon 1977: Star Wars 1979: All That Jazz 1980: Tess 1982: Gandhi 1983: Fanny & Alexander 1984: Amadeus 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1991: Bugsy 1995: Restoration 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2001: Moulin Rouge 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Aviator 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road Of those 26 films, 9 of them ended up winning Best Picture (35%). On top of all of that, the smallest Oscar haul for those Best Picture winning films was 6 awards for "Chicago" in 2002. So typically, in sweep like years, the Best Picture winner will typically take both awards. Within the sample size provided (1968-2015) the following films won Best Picture and only Production Design, not Costume Design: 1968: Oliver! 1970: Patton 1974: The Godfather Part 2 1985: Out Of Africa 1993: Schindler's List And these are the Best Picture Winners which won Costume Design but not Production Design: 1981: Chariots Of Fire 2000: Gladiator 2011: The Artist So while it would appear that the odds favor for "La La Land" to take both Production Design & Costume Design after winning both guild awards, both Critics Choice and BAFTA have been telling us who the winner would be in this category for the last 7 and 8 years respectively. It is also worth mentioning that no Contemporary Costume winner from the CDG has ever gone on to win the Oscar. We have seen the Oscar winner miss out in recent years with the CDG such as in 2011 & 2013. Both of those years, the Oscar went to the Critics Choice and BAFTA winner. It's very close but it is with these findings I conclude that Production Design & Costume Design will split this year and costumes will go to "Jackie" which would also act as a way to reward that film. PREDICTED WINNER: "Jackie" RUNNER UP: "La La Land" What do you think? Which films are you predicting to win these categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments below. You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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BEST PICTURE The Power Of The Dog (33) - AACTA, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GG, HFCS, KCFCC, LEJA, LFCC, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, UFCA, VFCC Belfast (7) - AARP, IFCA, IPA, LVFCS, PFCS, TIFF, WAFCA CODA (6) - CIC, HCA, NFCS, OSCAR, PGA, SAG Drive My Car (6) - BSFC, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SFCS, TFCA Licorice Pizza (5) - AFCC, GFCA, NBR, OFCC, StLFCA The Green Knight (2) - NTFCA, PCA Happening (2) - ICS, VENICE The Harder They Fall (2) - AAFCA, NAACP King Richard (2) - BFCC, BRA The Lost Daughter (2) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT After Love - BIFA Cyrano - DFCS Last Night In Soho - HFCS Mass - IFJA Pig - GWNYFCA Quo Vadis, Aida? - EFA Tick, Tick...Boom! - IPA Titane - CANNES The Tragedy of Macbeth - CACF West Side Story - GG The Worst Person In The World - IFSC BEST DIRECTOR Jane Campion (52) - AARP, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, DGA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, ICS, IFCA, IFCS, IFJA, IFSC, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, LFCC, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, UFCA, VENICE, WAFCA Denis Villeneuve (6) - AACTA, BFCC, CACF, HCA, NTFCA, VFCC Ryūsuke Hamaguchi (3) - BSFC, NSFC, SFCS Guillermo del Toro (2) - HFCS, NFCS Maggie Gyllenhaal (2) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT Jeymes Samuel (2) - AAFCA, BRA Paul Thomas Anderson - NBR Kenneth Branagh - PFCS Leos Carax - CANNES Alex Khan - BIFA Shaka King - NAACP Lin-Manuel Miranda - DFCS Steven Spielberg - LVFCS Jasmila Zbanic - EFA BEST ACTRESS Kristen Stewart (27) - AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCS, IFJA, IPA, MFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Jessica Chastain (8) - CCA, DFCS, HFCS, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, OSCAR, SAG Olivia Colman (8) - AWFJ, GOTHAM, KCFCC, LFCC, OFCS, SFBAFCC, TFCA, VFCC Alana Haim (7) - AFCC, BSFC, COFCA, FFCC, GFCA, IPA, OFCC Penelope Cruz (5) - LAFCA, LEJA, NSFC, SDFCS, VENICE Tessa Thompson (4) - BFCC, BRA, CIC, NYFCO Nicole Kidman (3) - AACTA, AARP, GG Renate Reinsve (3) - CACF, CANNES, IFSC Lady Gaga (2) - IFCA, NYFCC Jennifer Hudson (2) - AAFCA, NAACP Joanna Scanlan (2) - BAFTA, BIFA Rachel Zegler (2) - GG, NBR Caitriona Balfe - SDFCS Jasna Duricic - EFA Lee Hye-yeong - ICS Emilia Jones - UFCA Taylour Paige - SPIRIT Agathe Rousselle - AFCA BEST ACTOR Benedict Cumberbatch (26) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC Nicolas Cage (13) - AFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCS, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NTFCA, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA Will Smith (12) - AAFCA, AARP, BAFTA, BFCC, BRA, CCA, GG, NAACP, NBR, OSCAR, SAG, WFCC Andrew Garfield (11) - CACF, CIC, GG, HCA, IFCA, IFSC, IPA, LEJA, OAFFC, VFCC, WAFCA Hidetoshi Nishijima (2) - BSFC, NSFC Simon Rex (2) - LAFCA, SPIRIT Adeel Akhtar - BIFA John Arcilla - VENICE Peter Dinklage - DFCS Adam Driver - FFCC Frankie Faison - GOTHAM Oscar Isaac - IFJA Caleb Landry Jones - CANNES Jack Lowden - ICS Denzel Washington - TFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Ariana DeBose (21) - BAFTA, CCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GG, HCA, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, MFCA, OAFFC, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SAG, SFCS Kirsten Dunst (11) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, IPA, NDFS, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC Ruth Negga (11) - CFCA, CIC, COFCA, GWNYFCA, ICS, LFCC, NSFC, NYFCO, PFCC, SDFCS, SPIRIT Ann Dowd (9) - CACF, HFCS, IFSC, KCFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, VFCC Aunjanue Ellis (8) - AAFCA, AARP, BFCC, BRA, CACF, NBR, NFCS, WAFCA Jessie Buckley (2) - BSFC, TFCA Caitríona Balfe - IFCA Judi Dench - AACTA Gaby Hoffmann - IFJA Kathryn Hunter - NYFCC Regina King - NAACP Marlee Matlin - HFCS Vinette Robinson - BIFA Tilda Swinton - NTFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Kodi Smit-McPhee (31) - AACTA, AFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, LAFCA, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PFCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Troy Kotsur (15) - BAFTA, BSFC, CCA, GOTHAM, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, LEJA, LVFCS, MFCA, NFCS, OSCAR, SAG, SPIRIT, VFCC Bradley Cooper (4) - AFCC, CACF, GFCA, TFCA Ciarán Hinds (3) - KCFCC, NBR, PFCS Jeffrey Wright (3) - CIC, NTFCA, PCA Jason Isaacs (2) - IFSC, SDFCS Talid Ariss - BIFA Jon Bernthal - DFCS Anders Danielsen Lie (2) - ICS, NSFC Colman Domingo - BRA Mike Faist - PCC Corey Hawkins - AAFCA Daniel Kaluuya - NAACP Jared Leto - AARP Vincent Lindon - LAFCA J.K. Simmons - DFCS BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Power Of The Dog (33) - AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Drive My Car (11) - AFCA, BSFC, CANNES, ICS, IFJA, IFSC, LAFCA, LFCC, NSFC, SFCS, TFCA CODA (7) - BAFTA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, OSCAR, UFCA, WGA The Lost Daughter (4) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT, USC, VENICE West Side Story (2) - AARP, KCFCC Nightmare Alley - NFCS Passing - BRA The Tragedy Of Macbeth - NBR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Licorice Pizza (12) - AFCC, BAFTA, CFCA, COFCA, GFCA, KCFCC, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, OFCC, PCC, SEFCA Belfast (9) - AWFJ, CCA, GG, HFCS, IPA, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, WAFCA Mass (6) - CACF, HCA, IFJA, OFTA, SDFCS, StLFCA Pig (5) - AFCA, CIC, DFCS, OAFFC, OFCS Don't Look Up (4) - AAFCA, DFCS, VFCC, WGA C'mon C'mon (2) - LEJA, SFBAFCC Being The Ricardos - AACTA Benediction - ICS The French Dispatch - FFCC A Hero - NBR Judas And The Black Messiah - NAACP King Richard - BFCC The Mitchells vs. The Machines - UFCA The Worst Person In The World - IFSC BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Dune (22) - ASC, BAFTA, BFCC, CACF, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, LEJA, MFCA, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, WAFCA The Power Of The Dog (15) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSC, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OFCS, StLFCA The Tragedy Of Macbeth (7) - BRA, COFCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, NBR, PCC, SFBAFCC The Green Knight (6) - AFCA, CIC, GWNYFCA, NSFC, SFCS, UFCA Nightmare Alley (2) - NFCS, PFCC West Side Story (2) - LVFCS, NYFCC Benediction - ICS Boiling Point - BIFA Great Freedom - EFA Passing - SPIRIT Spencer - IFSC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Cruella (12) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, IFSC, LEJA, LVFCS, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, SDFCS, StLFCA Dune (5) - MFCA, NCFCA, OFCS, PCA, PFCS Ammonite - EFA Cyrano - IPA The Green Knight - SFCS The Harder They Fall - BRA House Of Gucci - HFCS Spencer - CFCA The Souvenir Part II - BIFA BEST FILM EDITING Dune (8) - AFCA, BOFCA, IPA, MFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCS The Power Of The Dog (6) - AWFJ, GWNYFCA, LEJA, NDFS, OFCS, SFBAFCC West Side Story (5) - CCA, CIC, COFCA, LVFCS, UFCA Last Night In Soho (4) - HCA, HFCS, MCFCA, StLFCA The French Dispatch (2) - CFCA, NCFCA Tick, Tick...Boom! (2) - ACE, WAFCA The Harder They Fall - BRA In The Heights - SDFCS King Richard - ACE No Time To Die - BAFTA The Souvenir Part II - BIFA Summer Of Soul - LAFCA Titane - IFSC Unclenching The Fists - EFA The Velvet Underground - BSFC What Do We See When We Look At The Sky? - ICS Zola - SPIRIT BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Eyes Of Tammy Faye (7) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR Cruella (5) - HFCS, IFSC, LEJA, MUAHS, NCFCA Being The Ricardos - MUAHS Coming 2 America - MUAHS The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain - BIFA Dune - MFCA Titane - EFA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Dune (23) - AFCC, BAFTA, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HCA, HMMA, IPA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA The Power Of The Dog (14) - AFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, NDFS, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SFBAFCC, UFCA Spencer (4) - BSFC, GWNYFCA, LVFCS, MFCA Parallel Mothers (3) - HMMA, IFSC, LAFCA Encanto (2) - LEJA, SCL The Harder They Fall (2) - BRA, HFCS The Addams Family 2 - HMMA Ali & Ava - BIFA Annette - ICS C'mon C'mon - HMMA Don't Look Up - HMMA Great Freedom - EFA The Green Knight - SCL Julia - HMMA A Quiet Place: Part II - HMMA BEST ORIGINAL SONG No Time To Die (18) - CACF, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GFCA, GG, HFCS, HFCS, HMMA, IFSC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PFCS, SCL Encanto (3) - GMS, IPA, LEJA Bruised - BRA CODA - HMMA Don't Look Up - SCL The Harder They Fall - IFCA King Richard - HCA PAW Patrol: The Movie - HMMA Rebel Hearts - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Dune (14) - ADG, BAFTA, CCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDSA, WAFCA Nightmare Alley (8) - ADG, CIC, HCA, MFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFBAFCC The French Dispatch (6) - CFCA, IFSC, NDFS, OFCS, SDSA, StLFCA No Time To Die (2) - ADG, SDSA The Souvenir Part II (2) - BIFA, ICS The Tragedy Of Macbeth (2) - BRA, IPA Barb And Star Go To Vista Del Mar - LAFCA Being The Ricardos - SDSA The Green Knight - SFCS Natural Light - EFA West Side Story - LVFCS BEST SOUND Dune (13) - BAFTA, CAS, IFSC, LEJA, MCFCA, MFCA, MPSE, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDFCS Boiling Point - BIFA The Innocents - EFA Last Night In Soho - HFCS Memoria - ICS Tick, Tick...Boom! - IPA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Dune (25) - BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, HCA, HFCS, IFSC, IPA, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, VES Spider-Man: No Way Home (2) - CIC, HFCS Dashcam - BIFA Lamb - EFA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Mitchells vs. The Machines (33) - AFCA, AFCC, ANNIE, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, KCFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA Encanto (13) - AWFJ, BAFTA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, IFCA, IPA, LEJA, MFCA, NAACP, NBR, NDFS, OSCAR Flee (12) - BSFC, CFCA, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, IFJA, IFSC, LAFCA, PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA The Crossing - ICS Luca - SDFCS Raya And The Last Dragon - NTFCA BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Drive My Car (34) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, IFSC, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCC, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (4) - BIFA, LVFCS, NDFS, UFCA The Hand Of God (4) - BFCC, FFCC, HFCS, PFCS The Worst Person In The World (4) - BOFCA, NYFCC, PCA, VFCC Parallel Mothers (3) - CIC, LEJA, SDFCS A Hero (2) - CACF, NBR African America - BRA Lamb - NTFCA Petite Maman - LAFCA Sheep Without A Shepherd - AARP Titane - PFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Summer Of Soul (45) - AAFCA, AARP, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BRA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (20) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CACF, CEH, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, GOTHAM, IDA, IFSC, LEJA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, StLFCA, VFCC Attica - DGA Barbara Lee: Speaking Truth to Power - NAACP The First Wave - UFCA Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck In Time - IFJA Mr. Bachmann And His Class - ICS Poly Styrene: I Am A Cliche - BIFA AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
May 2022
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