Predicting The 89th Academy Awards: Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design & Costume Design2/22/2017  By Matt Neglia Our final three tech awards for the 89th Academy Awards are here. I was anxiously awaiting the results of the guilds to tell me something with these categories and I think I have my mind made up on at least 2 out of the three categories. With only a few days left until the big show, here is my in-depth analysis of Best Makeup & Hair Styling, Production Design and Costume Design for this year's Oscar. Click below to read my in-depth analysis. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The nominees are: "A Man Called Ove" "Star Trek Beyond" "Suicide Squad" "Jackie" won the Critics Choice Award while "Florence Foster Jenkins" won BAFTA which does not help us out here in the slightest. Both "Star Trek Beyond" & "Suicide Squad" picked up awards from the Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Guild. I'm not going to bore you with stats here because quite frankly there are none. When in doubt, go with the best reviewed movie that everyone has heard of. Realistically, any film can win here though. PREDICTED WINNER: "Star Trek Beyond" RUNNER UP: "Suicide Squad" BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN This year for Best Production Design, it's most likely between the Best Picture frontrunner and the BAFTA winner. The nominees are: "Arrival" "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" "Hail, Caesar!" "La La Land" "Passengers" And here are the stats for the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA through the years with Oscar.
For "Arrival," & "Hail, Caesar!," these are the films that won the Oscar for Production Design without a win from Critics Choice, ADG or BAFTA from 1996 till the present day: 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2002: Chicago 2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2012: Lincoln 2004 remains the only year since the ADG have been around, that a film which only won BAFTA, went on to win the Oscar and that was "The Aviator." This does not bode well for "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them." It is also worth mentioning that BAFTA has recognized the Harry Potter world more than the Oscars ever did, including a win in this category back in 2005. Call it British love. Previous ADG/Critics Choice combo winners have included "Avatar," "Hugo," "The Great Gatsby," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" & "Mad Max: Fury Road." That's 5 out of the 7 years that Critics Choice have been around. This bodes well for "La La Land" which is also heavily favored to win Costumes, which we will get to a second... PREDICTED WINNER: "La La Land" RUNNER UP: "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" BEST COSTUME DESIGN And now we come to one of the harder categories to predict the night of the Oscars. This is one of the tech awards which could make or break your Oscar pool with your friends. The nominees this year for Costume Design are: "Allied" "Fantastic Beats & Where To Find Them" "Florence Foster Jenkins" "Jackie" "La La Land" Here are the stats with the Critics Choice Awards, the Costume Designers Guild and the BAFTA and how they all matched up with the Oscars since the BAFTA's have been around in 1968.
In "Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them" & "La La Land's" defense, in the last 48 years, Best Costume Design & Production Design have matched 26 times (54%). 1971: Nicholas & Alexandra 1973: The Sting 1975: Barry Lyndon 1977: Star Wars 1979: All That Jazz 1980: Tess 1982: Gandhi 1983: Fanny & Alexander 1984: Amadeus 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1991: Bugsy 1995: Restoration 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: Shakespeare In Love 2001: Moulin Rouge 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Aviator 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road Of those 26 films, 9 of them ended up winning Best Picture (35%). On top of all of that, the smallest Oscar haul for those Best Picture winning films was 6 awards for "Chicago" in 2002. So typically, in sweep like years, the Best Picture winner will typically take both awards. Within the sample size provided (1968-2015) the following films won Best Picture and only Production Design, not Costume Design: 1968: Oliver! 1970: Patton 1974: The Godfather Part 2 1985: Out Of Africa 1993: Schindler's List And these are the Best Picture Winners which won Costume Design but not Production Design: 1981: Chariots Of Fire 2000: Gladiator 2011: The Artist So while it would appear that the odds favor for "La La Land" to take both Production Design & Costume Design after winning both guild awards, both Critics Choice and BAFTA have been telling us who the winner would be in this category for the last 7 and 8 years respectively. It is also worth mentioning that no Contemporary Costume winner from the CDG has ever gone on to win the Oscar. We have seen the Oscar winner miss out in recent years with the CDG such as in 2011 & 2013. Both of those years, the Oscar went to the Critics Choice and BAFTA winner. It's very close but it is with these findings I conclude that Production Design & Costume Design will split this year and costumes will go to "Jackie" which would also act as a way to reward that film. PREDICTED WINNER: "Jackie" RUNNER UP: "La La Land" What do you think? Which films are you predicting to win these categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments below. You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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