By Matt Neglia And here we are. This is it. The final two categories before the 89th Academy Awards. Best Director and Best Picture. Before we get to my in-depth analysis of these two awards and how I think they will go on Sunday, please take the time to check out the other articles I have posted these past couple of days on the other categories: Best Foreign Language, Best Documentary & Best Animated Film Best Original Song & Best Original Score Best Film Editing & Best Cinematography Best Sound Editing/Mixing & Best Visual Effects Best Original & Adapted Screenplay Best Makeup, Best Costume Design & Best Production Design Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress Without any further adieu, click below for my in-depth analysis BEST DIRECTORThe nominees are... Denis Villeneuve - "Arrival" Mel Gibson - "Hacksaw Ridge" Damien Chazelle - "La La Land" Kenneth Lonergan - "Manchester By The Sea" Barry Jenkins - "Moonlight" This is a no brainer. It's going to be Damien Chazelle. I can tell you right now: no director has ever won the Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe, BAFTA & DGA and gone on to lose the Oscar since 1995, with the exception of Ben Affleck in 2012 for "Argo" because he was ultimately not nominated for the Oscar for directing. Had he been nominated, he would have easily won after the sweep of those awards he completed. Damien Chazelle has done the same thing all season and even if his film were to somehow, by some miracle, not win Best Picture, most would agree that he will still win Best Director becoming the youngest winner in this category in Academy history at 31 years of age. Some will argue that Barry Jenkins has an outside chance of upsetting after winning Best Director from the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board Of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Society Of Film Critics becoming only the fourth person to do that after Steven Spielberg ("Schindler's List"), Richard Curtis ("LA Confidential") and David Fincher ("The Social Network"). However, critics don't vote on the Oscars. The industry has spoken and they're saying Chazelle is their guy. PREDICTED WINNER: Damien Chazelle - "La La Land" RUNNER UP: Barry Jenkins - "Moonlight" BEST PICTUREThe nine films nominated for Best Picture are; "Arrival" "Fences" "Hacksaw Ridge" "Hell Or High Water" "Hidden Figures" "La La Land" "Lion" "Manchester By The Sea" "Moonlight" And like Best Director, there is no need to break out the stats for you all to see here. Had "Moonlight" won something more than the Golden Globe, such as the SAG or BAFTA, then I would be breaking those out to see if "Moonlight" had a chance. It still does have a chance, but it's extremely slim. In 65 years of the Golden Globes, the Best Drama winner has gone on to win the Oscar 32 times (49%). The Comedy/Musical winner has gone on to win the Oscar 10 times (15%). However, when you take into account "La La Land's" wins at the Critics Choice Awards 13/21 times (62%), the BAFTA 28/69 times (41%), and the PGA 19/27 times (70%), it missing the Oscar for Best Picture would be a "Crash" like upset. "Crash" had won the SAG ensemble award which "Moonlight" did not win ("Crash" however, did not win the Golden Globe Award). The only thing that "La La Land" has going against it is three things: 1. Backlash against the film potentially winning the most Oscars ever 2. The preferential ballot 3. The lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination Let's address the first point first. There are some who personally love "La La Land." They really do. Hell, I'm one of them. However, when "La La Land" received 14 nominations (Tied for the most ever) and you tallied up its potential wins, you realized that it stood a good chance to win 11 Oscars and tie the record for most wins ever, or if it wins everything except Ryan Gosling (Which is still feasible in an Adrian Brody-like shocking split upset) and Best Song (Which it will lose if its other nominated song wins), it will become the new record holder for most Academy Award wins ever. There are many who feel that the film deserves anything below that sacred 11 mark, but meeting and/or exceeding that is too much. People argue that "La La Land" is not "important" enough and will not hold up well over time. This is all subjective mind you. However, let's take a lookout point two and that is the preferential ballot. "La La Land" needs more than 50% of the vote on the first round of voting to automatically win Best Picture, which could very well happen. However, if it goes to another round of voting it will face stiff competition from "Moonlight," a film which got every possible nomination it could (8) across a wide field of categories ranging from writing, acting, music, cinematography and editing. Some will argue that those inclined to vote for "Moonlight" will split their vote with "Fences" and "Hidden Figures." But I would argue that "Moonlight" is going to rank high on the ballots for those who vote for those films. It will also likely rank high on the ballots for those who vote for "Lion," "Manchester By The Sea" and "Arrival's" ballots. The question is, for those who vote for "Hacksaw Ridge" and "Hell Or High Water," how high will "La La Land" and "Moonlight" rank? "La La Land" has built in backlash for being a musical, for skewing younger and for ultimately being a movie that, while well-made, is ultimately not "important" enough in a year where the Academy is likely to make a statement towards the country's current administration. "Moonlight" has no backlash. Has virtually no people who outright hate it except those who will rank it low because they found it slow, or they are homophobic or racist. The final point is the lack of a SAG ensemble nomination for "La La Land." If it wins Best Picture, it will be the first film since "Braveheart" (The first year SAG was announced) that a film won Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination. "Titanic," "Million Dollar Baby," "Slumdog Millionaire" and "The Hurt Locker" all managed to get Best Ensemble nominations and went on to win Best Picture. So why could "La La Land" not pull this off? Is it because the film is just Ryan and Emma and no one else of note? What about John Legend? If the film had enough passion behind it, how come the actors could not vote for it anyway? Does it all even matter? Probably not. But one thing is for sure...we are either heading towards another The Godfather/Cabaret & 12 Years A Slave/Gravity year. Or we are heading towards a huge sweep on the same level as something like "The Last Emperor" "Slumdog Millionaire" "Titanic" "The Return Of The King" "The English Patient" "West Side Story" or beyond. We will find out soon enough... PREDICTED WINNER: "La La Land" RUNNER UP: "Moonlight" Please let me know in the comments below what your thoughts are on these categories and be sure to enter our "Predict The Oscars" contest here. Thank you for reading these analysis articles on the 2017 Oscars. I hope you all enjoy the show! You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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BEST PICTURE Nomadland (38) - AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LEJA, LFCC, LVFCS, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, TIFF, VENICE, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC Promising Young Woman (10) - AACTA, COFCA, HCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, NFCS, OAFFC, SCA, SDFCS, WFCC Minari (7) - AFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFTA, PCC, UFCA Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3) - BFCC, CIC, PFCC The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (3) - DFCS, HFCS, SAG Da 5 Bloods (2) - CIC, NBR First Cow (2) - FFCC, NYFCC Judas And The Black Messiah (2) - AAFCA, BRA Another Round - EFA Bad Boys For Life - NAACP Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS Rocks - BIFA Small Axe - LAFCA The United States vs. Billie Holiday - AARP BEST DIRECTOR Chloé Zhao (49) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, BFCC, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, DGA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, MSFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Regina King (4) - AAFCA, BFCC, BRA, UFCA Spike Lee (3) - CIC, HFCS, NBR Lee Isaac Chung - AFCA Emerald Fennell - NFCS Darius Marder - SCA Steve McQueen - LFCC Andrew Patterson - GOTHAM Gina Prince-Bythewood - NAACP Kelly Reichardt - ICS Aaron Sorkin - AARP Thomas Vinterberg - EFA Remi Weekes - BIFA BEST ACTRESS Carey Mulligan (26) - AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, CCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SCA, SDFCS, StLFCA, WFCC Frances McDormand (25) - AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, LFCC, LVFCS, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Viola Davis (6) - BFCC, BRA, CIC, NAACP, PFCC, SAG Andra Day (2) - AAFCA, GG Sidney Flanigan (2) - BSFC, NYFCC Maria Bakalova - IPA Paula Beer - EFA Nicole Beharie - GOTHAM Sophia Loren - AARP Rosamund Pike - GG Wunmi Mosaku - BIFA Isabel Sandoval - ICS BEST ACTOR Chadwick Boseman (27) - AACTA, AAFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BRA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, IFCA, LAFCA, LEJA, LFCC, MSFCA, NAACP, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC Riz Ahmed (21) - AFCA, AFCC, COFCA, GFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LVFCS, NBR, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Delroy Lindo (10) - BOFCA, DFCS, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, PFCC Anthony Hopkins (6) - AARP, BAFTA, BIFA, BSFC, FFCC, NFCS Sacha Baron Cohen (2) - GG, IPA Mads Mikkelsen - EFA Aditya Modak - ICS Steven Yeun - NTFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Youn Yuh-jung (33) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BSFC, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, IFCA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SCA, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Maria Bakalova (16) - AFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, HFCS, IFJA, LFCC, MCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, TFCA, UFCA Amanda Seyfried (4) - DFWFCA, IPA, LVFCS, PFCC Ellen Burstyn (2) - DFCS, NYFCO Dominque Fishback (2) - AAFCA, BRA Jodie Foster (2) - AARP, GG Kosar Ali - BIFA Sônia Braga - ICS Glenn Close - NFCS Olivia Colman - AACTA Olivia Cooke - HFCS Phylicia Rashad - NAACP BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Daniel Kaluuya (19) - AAFCA, AFCA, BAFTA, BRA, CCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, LEJA, LVFCS, NFCS, OAFFC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC Paul Raci (18) - AFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCA, NBR, NSFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, StLFCA Leslie Odom Jr. (9) - AWFJ, BFCC, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, NYFCO, OFCS, UFCA, WAFCA Sacha Baron Cohen (7) - AACTA, DFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, SEFCA Chadwick Boseman (5) - CIC, IPA, NAACP, NYFCC, PFCC Francisco Barreiro - ICS Demián Bichir - AARP D’angelou Osei Kissiedu - BIFA Shaun Parkes - LFCC Glynn Turman - LAFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nomadland (20) - AFCA, AWFJ, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, SEFCA, USC, WAFCA The Father (6) - BAFTA, BIFA, IPA, NFCS, SCA, SDFCS One Night In Miami (6) - AAFCA, HCA, LEJA, LVFCS, PCC, PFCS I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (5) - BOFCA, BSFC, FFCC, StLFCA, UFCA First Cow (4) - DFCS, ICS, PFCC, SFBAFCC Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2) - BFCC, CIC Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - WGA News Of The World - NBR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Promising Young Woman (24) - AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA, WGA Minari (11) - AFCA, BFCC, DFCS, FFCC, LEJA, NBR, NCFCA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, TFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (10) - AACTA, AARP, CIC, DFCS, GG, HFCS, MCFCA, PFCS, UFCA, VFCC Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (7) - CFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, OAFFC, WFCC The Forty-Year-Old-Version (3) - BRA, GOTHAM, NAACP Another Round - EFA Bacurau - ICS Fourteen - GOTHAM Judas And The Black Messiah - LVFCS BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Nomadland (34) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, OFTA, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Mank (4) - FFCC, IPA, OFCC, SCA Tenet (4) - BFCC, HFCS, NFCS, NTFCA Small Axe (2) - LAFCA, NYFCC Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS First Cow - SFBAFCC Hidden Away - EFA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things - PCC Malcolm & Marie - BRA Saint Maud - BIFA The Vast Of Night - KCFCC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HFCS, LVFCS, OFTA, PFCS, SFCS Emma. (3) - CFCA, LEJA, SDFCS The Personal History Of David Copperfield (2) - HCA, IPA Hidden Away - EFA Jingle Jangle - BRA Misbehaviour - BIFA BEST FILM EDITING Nomadland (10) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, GWNYFCA, LEJA, NDFS, OFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (9) - CCA, CIC, COFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, MCFCA, PFCS, UFCA Sound Of Metal (4) - BAFTA, CCA, LVFCS, OFTA The Father (2) - BIFA, LAFCA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (2) - BSFC, CFCA The Invisible Man (2) - MCFCA, SDFCS Once More Unto The Breach - EFA Tenet - WAFCA The Wasteland - ICS BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, LEJA, MUAHS Birds Of Prey (2) - MUAHS, OFTA The Endless Trench - EFA Mank - HFCS Misbehaviour - BIFA Pinocchio - MUAHS BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Soul (32) - AFCA, AFCC, BAFTA, BOFCA, BRA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HMMA, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SCL, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Tenet (4) - HMMA, IFJA, MCFCA, SCA Mank (3) - DFWFCA, HFCS, NDFS David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet (2) - HMMA, IFMCA Minari (2) - BSFC, HMMA Berlin Alexanderplatz - EFA Blizzard Of Souls - SCL The Call Of The Wild - IFMCA Fukushima 50 - IFMCA The Invisible Man - HMMA The Midnight Sky - IPA News Of The World - HMMA Nomadland - IFCA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - IFMCA Preparations To Be Together For An Unknown Period Of Time - ICS Wolfwalkers - IFMCA Wonder Woman 1984 - IFMCA BEST ORIGINAL SONG One Night In Miami (12) - BRA, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GFCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, OFTA, PFCS The Life Ahead (3) - GG, HMMA, IPA Eurovision (2) - HCA, SCL Giving Voice - HMMA Judas And The Black Messiah - LVFCS The Outpost - HMMA Over The Moon - NDFS Trolls: World Tour - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Mank (22) - ADG, BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, LAFCA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, OFTA, PFCS, SDFCS, SDSA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA Tenet (2) - ADG, SDSA Da 5 Bloods - ADG First Cow - SFBAFCC His House - BIFA Jingle Jangle - BRA Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - LEJA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - EFA Promising Young Woman - SDSA A Portuguesa - ICS Soul - ADG BEST SOUND Sound Of Metal (7) - BAFTA, DFCS, HFCS, ICS, IPA, LEJA, OFTA Little Girl - EFA The Reason I Jump - BIFA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Tenet (12) - BAFTA, CCA, DFCS, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA The Invisible Man (6) - CFCA, CIC, HCA, LEJA, LVFCS, OFTA Mank - VES The Midnight Sky - VES Mulan - VES The One And Only Ivan - VES The Platform - EFA Possessor - FFCC Project Power - VES Soul - VES BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Soul (37) - AAFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, CCA, CIC, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, LEJA, LVFCS, MSFCA, NAACP, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Wolfwalkers (15) - AFCA, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NYFCC, OAFFC, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Josep (2) - EFA, ICS The Wolf House - BSFC BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Another Round (18) - AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CFCA, EFA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, PFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Minari (14) - AFCA, CCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, SFCS, VFCC La Llorona (6) - BSFC, HCA, IPA, LEJA, NBR, WFCC Night Of The Kings (4) - AAFCA, BFCC, BRA, NAACP Bacurau (3) - BOFCA, NYFCC, TFCA Collective (2) - AARP, NSFC The Life Ahead (2) - HFCS, SDFCS And Then We Danced - NDFS A Sun - HFCS Beanpole - LAFCA His House - CIC Identifying Features - GOTHAM Jumbo - PFCC Los Fuertes - FFCC Martin Eden - OFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Time (14) - AFCC, BFCC, BRA, DFWFCA, GFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NBR, NYFCC, OFTA, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA Collective (10) - BSFC, CEHA, EFA, IPA, LFCC, OAFFC, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC Dick Johnson Is Dead (9) - CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, IFCA, IFJA, NCFCA, OFCS, UFCA Boys State (8) - AFCA, CIC, DFCS, LVFCS, OFCC, PCC, PFCS, WAFCA All In: The Fight For Democracy (5) - AAFCA, AWFJ, HCA, NDFS, NTFCA My Octopus Teacher (3) - BAFTA, HFCS, PGA The Dissident (2) - KCFCC, NFCS The Painter And The Thief (2) - AWFJ, BOFCA Beastie Boys Story - HFCS Class Action Park - HCA Crip Camp - IDA The History of the Seattle Mariners: Supercut Edition - SFCS Mucho Amor - LEJA John Lewis: Good Trouble - NAACP The Reason I Jump - BIFA A Secret Love - AARP The Social Dilemma - MCFCA Stuntwomen: The Untold Holywood Story -WFCC A Thousand Cuts - GOTHAM The Way I See It - NYFCO The Year Of The Discovery - ICS You Don't Nomi - FFCC AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
April 2021
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