How To Win Your Emmy Pool: The Importance Of Casting

By Amanda Spears ​

​I’m going to take you television fans through how to methodically make your Emmy predictions and win your pool. Previously we looked at Outstanding Comedy, Drama & Limited Series/TV Movie Writing and Directing. Next up, the most important category not on the main telecast: casting.

Five years ago, the Emmys moved to a plurality vote replacing the more level playing field of 80-100 person panels. No category has had more of a transformation than the casting categories. The winners used to typically come from first-year shows, which makes sense since they’re casting a series that could potentially go multiple seasons and the voters were casting directors. But then the television academy changed the rules allowing directors and producers as well as casting directors to vote. If you win, your series chances of winning increase; lose, and you better hope it’s an anomaly.

​OUTSTANDING COMEDY CASTING NOMINEES
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“Dead to Me”
“Insecure”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Schitt’s Creek”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

OUTSTANDING DRAMA CASTING NOMINEES
“Big Little Lies”
 “The Crown”
 “The Handmaid’s Tale”
 “Killing Eve”
 “Ozark”
 “Succession”

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES TV/MOVIE CASTING
“Mrs. America”
 “Normal People”
 “Unbelievable”
 “Unorthodox”
 “Watchmen”

Since casting predicts the Outstanding Series winner, the first to be eliminated is any series not nominated in their respective Outstanding Series category which leaves us with...

Outstanding Drama Casting
“The Crown”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Killing Eve”
“Ozark”
“Succession”

Outstanding Limited Series/TV Movie Casting
“Mrs. America”
“Unbelievable”
“Unorthodox”
“Watchmen”

Since the directors vote for Outstanding Casting, if a series could not receive a directing nomination its probability of winning casting is slim to none. That now leaves us with...

Outstanding Comedy Casting
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Schitt’s Creek”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

Outstanding Drama Casting
“The Crown”
“Ozark”
“Succession”

Outstanding Limited Series/TV Movie Casting
“Unorthodox”
“Watchmen”

For five years running, the results of Outstanding Comedy Casting have been the same as Outstanding Comedy Series. “Veep” kicked this trend off with three consecutive wins (2015-2017), besting first series shows “Transparent” and “Atlanta.” “Mrs. Maisel” won for its first season (2018) and kept the streak alive. If we would have been paying attention last year when “Fleabag” (2019) won Outstanding Comedy Casting, its Series win a week later would not have been a surprise. Look for the cult-hit “Schitt’s Creek” to try and keep the streak alive. But don’t underestimate “Maisel” which added Sterling K. Brown and Liza Weil to its cast for season three. Even if it doesn’t win Casting, it’s the only series likely to lose, but it still has a chance to win Series with its mix of support from both the acting branch and below-the-line.

Outstanding Comedy Casting Predictions
1. “Schitt’s Creek”
2. “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
3. “Insecure”
4. “Dead to Me”
5. “What We Do in the Shadows”
6. “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

The drama field is more complicated. “Game of Thrones” has won Outstanding Drama Casting and Series three times (2015,2016 & 2019). “Stranger Things” won Casting (2017), but lost Outstanding Drama Series to “The Handmaid’s Tale”. It’s easy to see how directors and producers would understand casting a series that stars tweens and teens is far more difficult than casting a series based on a famous novel. “The Crown” also won Casting (2018), but lost series to “Game of Thrones.” With “The Crown” recasting every two years, was their win a thank you for “The Crown” version one? Does a win this year mean they’ll follow with a Series win with version 2? Or will they once again be thanked next year? Can “Succession” succeed “Game of Thrones” by winning both?

Outstanding Drama Casting Predictions
1. “Succession”
2. “The Crown”
3. “Ozark”
4. “The Handmaid’s Tale”
5. “Killing Eve”
6. “Big Little Lies”

Four of the past five winners in the Limited Series/TV Movie category have swept Casting and Series: “Olive Kitteridge” (2015), “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story” (2016), “Big Little Lies” (2017), and “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (2018). “When They See Us” (2019) won Casting, but lost Limited Series to “Chernobyl.” Again, it’s possible that the children factor and double casting of the Central Park Five helped tip the scale in “When They See Us’s” favor. “Watchmen” has a large diverse cast, and with 26 nominations, it’s the favorite to win.

Outstanding Limited Series/TV Movie Casting Predictions
1. “Watchmen”
2. “Unorthodox”
3. “Mrs. America”
4. “Unbelievable”
5. “Normal People”

Regardless of what happens, If a series should upset in casting, look for it to become the favorite to win series. ​Do you agree or disagree with my logic? What are you predicting to win the Emmys for Outstanding Casting in the Drama, Comedy and Limited Series/TV movie categories? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our Twitter account. Stay tuned for more articles on the Emmys as I finalize my predictions.

You can follow Amanda and hear more of her thoughts on the Emmys and TV on Twitter at @msamandaspears