By Michael Schwartz
NYFF is over and the Oscar race continues. While not much as changed drastically (We're still waiting on something ANYTHING on "Phantom Thread" and "The Post") there have been a few minor adjustments in my predictions which I wanted to share with all of you. Click below to find out where I think the race currently stands.
*The following are Michael Schwartz's predictions and do not reflect the thoughts of others at Next Best Picture*
BEST PICTURE
We have come to a point where just about every Best Picture contender has been seen. The only outliers are Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” and Paul Thomas Anderson's "Phantom Thread." TIFF breakout hit “I, Tonya” is receiving more love as it plays at regional festivals. Perhaps it is more than simply an acting play. Think “Dallas Buyers Club," which ended up with a surprising six nominations. We know that the race has come down to about 15-20 films. The top contenders of those include...
Predicted Nominees Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Call Me By Your Name The Shape Of Water The Post Dunkirk Darkest Hour Get Out The Florida Project I, Tonya Lady Bird BEST DIRECTOR
Still hovering around the same names here. One interesting development is the inclusion of Martin McDonagh. Six of the last seven TIFF audience award winners went on to receive Best Director nominations. With “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” gaining some serious steam, it is time to take it seriously here.
Predicted Nominees: Christopher Nolan - “Dunkirk” Guillermo del Toro - “The Shape Of Water” Martin McDonagh - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Joe Wright - “Darkest Hour” Luca Guadagnino - “Call Me By Your Name” Don't Count Out: Steven Spielberg - “The Post” Sean Baker - “The Florida Project” Greta Gerwig - “Lady Bird” Denis Villeneuve - “Blade Runner 2049” Jordan Peele - “Get Out” BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman is still way out in front. He is ahead of the pack so much so that he is really the only “locked” contender here. We’re still waiting for Tom Hanks in “The Post”, but I'm feeling pretty good about James Franco in the meantime. His film “The Disaster Artist” seems to be a rousing audience hit that could make the industry take notice. As proven in “The Artist”, “Argo”, and “Birdman”, the Academy loves movies about actors and Hollywood. Gyllenhaal has dropped down for me due to "Stronger's" lack of box office and overall presence in the race (Plus, they have failed to nominate him many times before).
Predicted Nominees: Gary Oldman - “Darkest Hour” Timothée Chalamet - “Call Me By Your Name” Tom Hanks - “The Post” James Franco - “The Disaster Artist” Daniel Day-Lewis - “Phantom Thread” Don't Count Out: Jake Gyllenhaal - “Stronger” Christian Bale - “Hostiles” Hugh Jackman - “The Greatest Showman” Denzel Washington - “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” Andrew Garfield - “Breathe” BEST ACTRESS
Woody Allen’s “Wonder Wheel” did not make the splash many were expecting at NYFF. Put that on top of unfavorable talk surrounding Allen in the wake of the Harvey Weinstein scandal and things suddenly aren’t looking so great for Kate Winslet anymore. Still, her sheer presence may be enough for a nomination. It won’t be easy though. Margot Robbie of “I, Tonya” seems to be taking advantage of her film’s buzz. The Aussie actress has never been nominated despite very steady (And acclaimed) work since 2013’s ”The Wolf Of Wall Street”. Perhaps she makes the final cut. This is still a competitive race, but we are developing a better sense of who is out in front.
Predicted Nominees: Frances McDormand - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Meryl Streep - “The Post” Sally Hawkins - “The Shape Of Water” Judi Dench - “Victoria And Abdul” Kate Winslet - “Wonder Wheel” Don't Count Out: Margot Robbie - “I, Tonya” Jessica Chastain - “Molly’s Game” Saoirse Ronan - “Lady Bird” Emma Stone - “Battle Of The Sexes” Annette Bening - “Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool” BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe really seems to be capitalizing on love for “The Florida Project”. Supporting Actor is a category that loves rewarding veterans, so he certainly has that factor working in his favor. However, they also love over the top villains, which gives a nice boost to Sam Rockwell, who continues to earn raves for his work in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”. Rounding out the rest of the predicted nominees are Michael Shannon and ”Call Me By Your Name” co-stars Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg. Shannon has proven himself to be an Oscar favorite with surprise nominations in both 2008 and 2016. Hammer and Stuhlbarg certainly have the necessary reviews, but we haven’t seen co-stars nominated in the same category since Melissa Leo and Amy Adams in 2010. Finally, watch out for Dustin Hoffman here. I would be more willing to predict him had his film not been a Netflix release.
Predicted Nominees: Willem Dafoe - “The Florida Project” Sam Rockwell - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Michael Stuhlbarg - “Call Me By Your Name” Armie Hammer - “Call Me By Your Name” Michael Shannon - “The Shape Of Water” Don't Count Out: Dustin Hoffman - “The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” Ben Mendelsohn - “Darkest Hour” Richard Jenkins - “The Shape Of Water” Mark Rylance - “Dunkirk” Kevin Spacey - “All The Money In The World” BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) are still out in front while the rest of the category remains at a standstill. Barring any last minute surprises from “The Post” or “Phantom Thread”, I think we have our five nominees.
Predicted Nominees: Allison Janney - “I, Tonya” Laurie Metcalf - “Lady Bird” Melissa Leo - “Novitiate” Holly Hunter - “The Big Sick” Octavia Spencer - “The Shape Of Water” Don't Count Out: Brooklynn Prince - “The Florida Project” Lesley Manville - “Phantom Thread” Kristin Scott Thomas - “Darkest Hour” Mary J. Blige - “Mudbound” Hong Chau - “Downsizing” BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory might as well pick up his award now for “Call Me By Your Name” because this year’s adapted screenplay race is as thin as it’s ever been. In terms of nominations, I'm interested to see what happens with “Hostiles." The script was written a number of years ago by the late Donald E. Stewart, a former winner for “Missing." That would be interesting recognition. Other than that though, the lineup is incredibly lonely.
Predicted Nominees: Call Me By Your Name Molly’s Game The Disaster Artist Hostiles Last Flag Flying Don't Count Out: Mudbound All The Money In The World Wonderstruck First They Killed My Father Star Wars: The Last Jedi BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
So much more excitement here in this screenplay category. In fact, it’s tough to narrow the contenders down to five. Between “Lady Bird” and “The Big Sick”, I'm afraid only one (If either) can make it in. It’ll be an uphill climb with traditional Oscar fare such as “Darkest Hour” hanging around too. If the film is a top tier Best Picture contender, do not discount it here.
Predicted Nominees: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Post Get Out The Shape Of Water Darkest Hour Don't Count Out: Lady Bird The Big Sick I, Tonya The Florida Project Battle Of The Sexes BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
No change from the last update. I’m still on team “Coco” unless proven otherwise.
Predicted Nominees: Coco Ferdinand Cars 3 The Breadwinner Mary And The Witch’s Flower Don't Count Out: Loving Vincent The Lego Batman Movie Despicable Me 3 The Boss Baby In This Corner Of The World BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Visages/Villages”, AKA “Faces/Places” continues to charm the festivals while scoring well in limited release. Who doesn’t want to nominate Agnes Varda? Feeling very good about her odds.
Predicted Nominees: Faces/Places Icarus Step Whose Streets? City Of Ghosts Don't Count Out: Jane Chasing Coral Strong Island Hell On Earth Bobbi Jene BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Foxtrot” is certainly one of the most talked about festival favorites. Sony Pictures Classics has a good history here and will give the film a qualifying release before wide expansion in March.
Predicted Nominees: Foxtrot First They Killed My Father Loveless The Square BPM (Beats Per Minute) Don't Count Out: Happy End A Fantastic Woman Pop Aye Razzia Racer And The Jailbird What are your thoughts on the race so far? Are your predictions far off from mine? What do you agree/disagree with? Please let us know in the comments below and be sure to check out the rest of the team's predictions below. BEST PICTURE BEST DIRECTOR BEST ACTOR BEST ACTRESS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY BEST ANIMATED FEATURE BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM You can follow Michael and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @mikemovie
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BEST PICTURE Get Out (15) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, BOFCA, BRA, KCFCC, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PFFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, WAFCA Lady Bird (10) - CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCC The Shape Of Water (9) - AWFJ, CC, DFWFCA, LAOFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, PGA, StLFCA Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (8) - AACTA, BAFTA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, SAG The Florida Project (4) - DFCSA, NYFCO, SFFCC, TFCA Call Me By Your Name (3) - GALECA, IFP, LAFCA Dunkirk (2) - DFCC, FFCC Mudbound (2) - BFCC, NYFCO The Post (2) - NBR, NTFCA Detroit - NAACP A Ghost Story - UFCA Girls Trip - NAACP Logan - CIFCC Phantom Thread - BSFC BEST DIRECTOR Guillermo del Toro (18) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, DGA, GG, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, StLFCA Greta Gerwig (10) - COFCA, GALECA, GFCA,HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, NBR, NSFC, SDFCS, TFCA Christopher Nolan (10) - AACTA, AFCC, DFCC, CFCA, FFCC, OFCS, PCC, SFCS, UFCA, WAFCA Jordan Peele (10) - AAFCA, BFCC, BRA, CIFCC, IFP, NAACP, NCFCA, OFCC, PFCC, SPIRIT Sean Baker (3) - DFCSA, LFCC, NYFCC Paul Thomas Anderson (3) - BOFCA, BSFC, VFCC Luca Guadagnino - LAFCA Dee Rees - NYFCO BEST ACTOR Gary Oldman (23) - AACTA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, CC, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SAG, SFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Timothee Chalamet (12) - AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, FFCC, GALECA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, NYFCC, PCC, SPIRIT Daniel Kaluuya (8) - AAFCA, BRA, BSFC, CIFCC, GFCA, LVFCS, NAACP, NSFC James Franco (7) - CC, DFCC, DFCSA, GG, HFCS, IFP, NFCS Daniel Day-Lewis (4) - PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC Andy Serkis (2) - SFFCC, UFCA Harry Dean Stanton - IFJA Tom Hanks - NBR James McAvoy - SDFCS BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand (21) - AAFCA, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Sally Hawkins (19) - AFCC, BSFC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GALECA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, UFCA Saoirse Ronan (9) - CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, GG, IFJA, IFP, NYFCC, SFCS, VFCC Margot Robbie (5) - AACTA, CC, FFCC, NYFCO, SFFCC Natalie Paul - BRA Meryl Streep - NBR Octavia Spencer - NAACP BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe (25) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCSA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, SFCS, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC Sam Rockwell (19) - AACTA, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SFCA, SPIRIT, WAFCA Michael Stuhlbarg (2) - GALECA, LAOFCS Idris Elba - NAACP Laurence Fishburne - AAFCA Hugh Grant - LFCC Woody Harrelson - PFCC Richard Jenkins - StLFCA Jason Mitchell - BRA Patrick Stewart - LAOFCS BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laurie Metcalf (28) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Allison Janney (19) - AACTA, AFCA, BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, DFCSA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LAOFCS, NFCS, NYFCO, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SPIRIT Tiffany Haddish (4) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP, NYFCC Mary J. Blige - BFCC Lesley Manville - LFCC Tatiana Maslany - UFCA BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Get Out (34) - AAFCA, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BRA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, IFP, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NAACP, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WGA Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (9) - AACTA, BAFTA, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, PFCS Lady Bird (8) - BSFC, DFWFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, PCC, SFCS, SPIRIT Phantom Thread (2) - NBR, NYFCC The Shape Of Water - StLFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Call Me By Your Name (15) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, CFCA, FFCC, KCFCC, LVFCS, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, SFCA, SFFCC, USC, WGA The Disaster Artist (8) - CIFCC, GFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, StLFCA Mudbound (3) - BFCC, COFCA, WAFCA Logan (2) - IFJA, KCFCC Molly's Game (2) - LAOFCS, NCFCA Blade Runner 2049 - UFCA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Coco (38) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA The Breadwinner (2) - LAFCA, TFCA The LEGO Batman Movie - DFCSA Loving Vincent - AWFJ My Life As A Zucchini - SDFCS BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Blade Runner 2049 (28) - AFCA, ASC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, HFCS, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Dunkirk (5) - AFCA, BSFC, GFCA, SDFCS, SFCA The Shape Of Water (3) - DFWFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO Call Me By Your Man - SPIRIT Mudbound - NYFCC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Phantom Thread (6) - BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, OSCAR, SDFCS, SFCS Beauty And The Beast (2) - PFCS, SDFCS Blade Runner 2049 - LVFCS I, Tonya - CDG The Shape Of Water - CDG Wonder Woman - CDG BEST FILM EDITING Baby Driver (11) - BAFTA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Dunkirk (9) - ACE, AWFJ, BOFCA, CC, LAFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCS I, Tonya (2) - ACE, SPIRIT Coco - ACE A Ghost Story - BSFC Jane - ACE BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Darkest Hour (4) - BAFTA, CC, MHG, OSCAR Phantom Thread - CIFCC BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Blade Runner 2049 (9) - ADG, CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, SFCS, WAFCA The Shape Of Water (9) - ADG, BAFTA, CC, NFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA Coco - ADG Logan - ADG BEST SOUND MIXING Dunkirk (3) - BAFTA, CAS, OSCAR BEST SOUND EDITING Dunkirk (2) - BAFTA, OSCAR Blade Runner 2049 - MPSE BEST VISUAL EFFECTS War For The Planet Of The Apes (8) - CC, CIFCC, LAOFCS, NCFCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, VES Blade Runner 2049 (7) - BAFTA, FFCC, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, OSCAR, StLFCA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Shape Of Water (14) - AFCA, BAFTA, BOFCA, CC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, UFCA Phantom Thread (9) - BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, LAFCA, PCC, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA Blade Runner 2049 (2) - FFCC, WAFCA Coco - PFCC Dunkirk - GFCA Get Out - BRA BEST ORIGINAL SONG Coco (6) - CC, GFCA, HFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS Detroit - AAFCA The Greatest Showman - GG Mudbound - BRA BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM BPM (Beats Per Minute) (10) - AFCC, COFCA, FFCC, GALECA, LAFCA, NYFCC, OFCS, SFFCC, VFCC, WAFCA The Square (8) - AWFJ, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, LAOFCS, OFCC, TFCA First They Killed My Father (4) - BOFCA, LVFCS, PFCS, SFCA In The Fade (4) - CC, GG, KCFCC, NYFCO Raw (4) - CIFCC, NTFCA, PCC, SFCS A Fantastic Woman (3) - BFCC, OSCAR, SPIRIT Thelma (3) - HFCS, SDFCS, UFCA Graduation (2) - PFCC, NSFC Okja (2) - AFCA, NCFCA The Wound (2) - AAFCA, BRA Faces Places - IFJA Foxtrot - NBR Loveless - LAFCA BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Jane (17) - AFCC, CFCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Faces Places (14) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, SPIRIT, TFCA City Of Ghosts (3) - DFWFCA, PCC, PFCS Step (3) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond (2) - DFCSA, LAOFCS Kedi (2) - AFCC, NCFCA Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story - NYFCO Dawson City: Frozen Time - BSFC Ex Libris: The New York Public Library - VFCC The Farthest - DFCC Icarus - OSCAR Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 - IFJA Oklahoma City - OFCC Strong Island - IFP AuthorsMatt Neglia Archives
August 2018
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