By Cody Dericks
It's mid-January. Critics awards continue to roll in and nearly all of the contenders have been seen by the public. At this stage of the awards season, there's not much more we pundits can do besides wait. Within the next two weeks, we will have heard from the National Board of Review and the Independent Spirit Award nominations, and we'll be on the cusp of the Golden Globes and SAG nominations. At that point, things should start to shift around to reflect what those awards bodies favor. But until then, let's take a look at where the Next Best Picture's below-the-line predictions stand at the end of this phase. Best Cinematography 1. Mank 2. Nomadland 3. News of the World 4. Tenet 5. Judas and the Black Messiah 6. Da 5 Bloods (^) 7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (v) 8. The Midnight Sky 9. Minari 10. I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (NEW) Dropped Out: The United States vs. Billie Holiday Our top five is completely unchanged, but this is one of many categories where "Da 5 Bloods" saw reassuring advancement. Its ability to hang on in the awards race over half a year since its release is impressive, especially given the fact that many other contenders have come and gone in the months since. If it continues to do well with the industry and televised awards, don't be surprised if it easily scoops up five to seven Oscar nominations. Best Costume Design 1. Emma. (^) 2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (v) 3. Mank (v) 4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (^) 5. Mulan (v) 6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (^) 7. The Glorias (v) 8. The Prom (^) 9. News of the World (v) 10. Ammonite This is the only below-the-line category in which our current predicted winner has changed. "Emma." features exactly the type of lavish period costumes that the Academy likes to reward. It doesn't stand a great chance of getting any above-the-line nominations, but this is one of the few categories that still goes to non-Best Picture contenders fairly often, even in the expanded era ("The Young Victoria," "Alice in Wonderland," "Anna Karenina," "The Great Gatsby" & "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"). It's important to note, however, that all of those winners were also nominees in Best Production Design, so the "Emma." team should work to earn nominations in both categories, which would indicate the kind of general admiration from voters that can lead to a win. Besides the gorgeous Jane Austen adaptation, this category saw a lot of movement from other contenders. While it's still an uncertain category overall, expect Best Picture contenders "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" and "Mank" to rack up nominations here with fairly little trouble. Best Film Editing 1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 2. Mank 3. Nomadland (^) 4. The Father (v) 5. Tenet 6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (^) 7. Da 5 Bloods (^) 8. Judas and the Black Messiah (v) 9. News of the World 10. One Night in Miami (NEW) Dropped Out: Hillbilly Elegy "Nomadland" continues to climb the ranks in this category, certainly boosted by its continued dominance of the critics' prizes for Best Picture. While "Birdman" was an exception to the rule, the fact of the matter remains that in order to be considered a serious contender for Best Picture, your film simply must have a Best Film Editing nomination. This rule was solidified by the recent surprise Best Picture winners "Green Book" and "Parasite," which both scored Best Film Editing nominations while their year's predicted frontrunners ("Roma" and "1917," respectively) did not. Meanwhile, "Judas and the Black Messiah" saw a severe dip after bouncing up in the rankings at our last check-in, and this was another category in which "Da 5 Bloods" saw growth (it was new to this category at our last check-in).
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2. Hillbilly Elegy 3. Mank 4. Birds of Prey 5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 6. Mulan (^) 7. Pinocchio (^) 8. Emma. (NEW) 9. The Personal History of David Copperfield 10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (v) Dropped Out: The Glorias This tricky category did not see any significant changes amongst its most serious contenders. "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" plunged to the bottom of our rankings, which isn't too surprising given its recent mixed reception. "Emma." made its first appearance on our list, and it certainly seems like the type of hairstyling-heavy period contender that this branch occasionally likes to nominate ("The Young Victoria," "Victoria & Abdul" & "Mary Queen of Scots"). Still, this category favors nominees that are heavier on the makeup side, with movie star transformations still being their favorite type of work to award ("Darkest Hour," "Vice" & "Bombshell"). This predilection would certainly help this category's two current frontrunners: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" and "Hillbilly Elegy." Best Production Design 1. Mank 2. Emma. 3. The Personal History of David Copperfield 4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 5. Mulan 6. The Midnight Sky 7. News of the World 8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (^) 9. Judas and the Black Messiah (^) 10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (v) Nothing much to see here. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" certainly feels like the type of across-the-board contender that can easily rack up a good number of craft nominations, a la "The Irishman" or "The Shape of Water." This type of rubber-stamp nominating is to be expected for Best Picture frontrunners, which would explain its ascension in this category. Best Sound 1. Sound of Metal 2. Mank 3. Tenet 4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 5. Soul 6. The Midnight Sky (^) 7. News of the World (v) 8. Greyhound 9. Da 5 Bloods (NEW) 10. The Prom (v) Dropped Out: The Trial of the Chicago 7 "News of the World" is an interesting case of the type of movie that got a decent-but-not-stunning reception but still seems like it's right up Academy members' respective alleys. As such, it continually bounces around our craft category predictions, including here in Best Sound. It wouldn't be surprising if this film earned six nominations, zero nominations, or something in between. Also, this was yet another category in which "Da 5 Bloods" showed encouraging support. Best Visual Effects 1. Tenet 2. The Midnight Sky 3. The Invisible Man 4. Sonic the Hedgehog 5. Greyhound 6. Birds of Prey 7. Wonder Woman 1984 8. Mank (^) 9. Mulan (v) 10. The Call of the Wild This category had virtually little change. Until televised awards start to chime in, don't expect that to change. However, it's hard to see a world in which "Tenet" doesn't win. Best Original Score 1. Soul 2. Mank 3. News of the World 4. The Midnight Sky (^) 5. Tenet (v) 6. Minari 7. Hillbilly Elegy (v) 8. Da 5 Bloods 9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 10. Ammonite (NEW) Dropped Out: One Night in Miami "Ammonite" made a somewhat-surprising debut in this category. Given that its composing team of Volker Bertelmann and Dustin O'Halloran are previous nominees for their work on "Lion," it wouldn't be too surprising for them to get a nomination from this branch that favors familiar names. There is a world where our current top five is nominated and among them, "Mank" is the only Best Picture contender, or the nominating committee could default to favoring the more Oscar-friendly "Da 5 Bloods" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7." Best Original Song 1. One Night in Miami - "Speak Now" 2. The Life Ahead - "Seen" 3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 - "Hear My Voice" 4. Miss Americana - "Only the Young" 5. Over the Moon - "Rocket to the Moon" 6. All In: The Fight for Democracy - "Turntables" 7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - "Wuhan Flu" 8. Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - "Husavik (My Hometown)" (^) 9. The Prom - "Wear Your Crown" (v) 10. The Forty-Year-Old Version - "Poverty Porn" As usual, this category remains nearly impossible to predict this early. Now that many of us have gotten the chance to see "One Night in Miami" and hear its contending song, our pundits seem confident that it has what it takes to go all the way. And while it hasn't made our rankings just yet, don't be surprised if "Fight for You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah" begins to make an appearance in predictions. A few of our team's members currently have it highly ranked in their predictions. By our next bi-weekly check-in, we should hopefully have a better idea of how the latter part of the awards season will start to look. In the meantime, keep watching the current contenders and let us know what you have predicted. You can find our team's detailed predictions organized by category here. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our Twitter account. You can follow Cody and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @codymonster91
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BEST PICTURE Nomadland (29) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIC, DFWFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, TIFF, VENICE, VFCC, WAFCA Promising Young Woman (7) - COFCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, NFCS, OAFFC, SCA, SDFCS Minari (4) - NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, UFCA Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3) - BFCC, CIC, PFCC Da 5 Bloods (2) - CIC, NBR First Cow (2) - FFCC, NYFCC The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (2) - DFCS, HFCS Another Round - EFA Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS Rocks - BIFA Small Axe - LAFCA BEST DIRECTOR Chloé Zhao (37) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BFCC, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, MSFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, PFCC, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Spike Lee (3) - CIC, HFCS, NBR Regina King (2) - BFCC, UFCA Emerald Fennell - NFCS Darius Marder - SCA Steve McQueen - LFCC Andrew Patterson - GOTHAM Kelly Reichardt - ICS Thomas Vinterberg - EFA Remi Weekes - BIFA BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand (22) - AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, LFCC, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Carey Mulligan (16) - AFCC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, MCFCA, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, SCA, SDFCS, StLFCA Viola Davis (3) - BFCC, CIC, PFCC Sidney Flanigan (2) - BSFC, NYFCC Maria Bakalova - IPA Paula Beer - EFA Nicole Beharie - GOTHAM Andra Day - GG Rosamund Pike - GG Wunmi Mosaku - BIFA Isabel Sandoval - ICS BEST ACTOR Riz Ahmed (18) - AFCC, COFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, NBR, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Chadwick Boseman (16) - AWFJ, BFCC, CFCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, IFCA, LAFCA, LFCC, MSFCA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Delroy Lindo (8) - BOFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, PFCC Anthony Hopkins (4) - BIFA, BSFC, FFCC, NFCS Sacha Baron Cohen (2) - GG, IPA Mads Mikkelsen - EFA Aditya Modak - ICS Steven Yeun - NTFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Youn Yuh-jung (23) - AWFJ, BFCC, BSFC, COFCA, GWNYFCA, IFCA, KCFCC, LAFCA, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, SCA, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Maria Bakalaova (15) - AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, HFCS, IFJA, LFCC, MCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, TFCA, UFCA Amanda Seyfried (3) - DFWFCA, IPA, PFCC Ellen Burstyn (2) - DFCS, NYFCO Kosar Ali - BIFA Sônia Braga - ICS Glenn Close - NFCS Olivia Cooke - HFCS Jodie Foster - GG BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Raci (16) - AFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, NBR, NSFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, StLFCA Leslie Odom Jr. (9) - AWFJ, BFCC, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, NYFCO, OFCS, UFCA, WAFCA Daniel Kaluuya (7) - DFWFCA, GG, NFCS, OAFFC, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC Sacha Baron Cohen (6) - DFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, SEFCA Chadwick Boseman (4) - CIC, IPA, NYFCC, PFCC Francisco Barreiro - ICS D’angelou Osei Kissiedu - BIFA Shaun Parkes - LFCC Glynn Turman - LAFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nomadland (14) - AWFJ, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, SEFCA, WAFCA The Father (5) - BIFA, IPA, NFCS, SCA, SDFCS I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (5) - BOFCA, BSFC, FFCC, StLFCA, UFCA First Cow (4) - DFCS, ICS, PFCC, SFBAFCC Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2) - BFCC, CIC News Of The World - NBR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Promising Young Woman (18) - AFCC, AWFJ, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA Minari (8) - BFCC, FFCC, NBR, NCFCA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, TFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (7) - CIC, DFCS, GG, HFCS, MCFCA, UFCA, VFCC Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (6) - CFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, OAFFC Another Round - EFA Bacurau - ICS The Forty-Year-Old-Version - GOTHAM Fourteen - GOTHAM BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Nomadland (25) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Mank (4) - FFCC, IPA, OFCC, SCA Tenet (4) - BFCC, HFCS, NFCS, NTFCA Small Axe (2) - LAFCA, NYFCC Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS First Cow - SFBAFCC Hidden Away - EFA Saint Maud - BIFA The Vast Of Night - KCFCC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3) - CIC, HFCS, SFCS Emma. (2) - CFCA, SDFCS Hidden Away - EFA Misbehaviour - BIFA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - IPA BEST FILM EDITING Nomadland (8) - AWFJ, BOFCA, GWNYFCA, NDFS, OFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (6) - CIC, COFCA, HFCS, IPA, MCFCA, UFCA The Father (2) - BIFA, LAFCA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (2) - BSFC, CFCA The Invisible Man (2) - MCFCA, SDFCS Once More Unto The Breach - EFA Tenet - WAFCA The Wasteland - ICS BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Endless Trench - EFA Mank - HFCS Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - CIC Misbehaviour - BIFA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Soul (20) - AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GG, GWNYFCA, HFCS, HMMA, LAFCA, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Tenet (4) - HMMA, IFJA, MCFCA, SCA Mank (3) - DFWFCA, HFCS, NDFS David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet (2) - HMMA, IFMCA Minari (2) - BSFC, HMMA Berlin Alexanderplatz - EFA The Call Of The Wild - IFMCA Fukushima 50 - IFMCA The Invisible Man - HMMA The Midnight Sky - IPA News Of The World - HMMA Nomadland - IFCA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - IFMCA Preparations To Be Together For An Unknown Period Of Time - ICS Wolfwalkers - IFMCA Wonder Woman 1984 - IFMCA BEST ORIGINAL SONG One Night In Miami (6) - CIC, DFCS, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, MCFCA The Life Ahead (3) - GG, HMMA, IPA Giving Voice - HMMA The Outpost - HMMA Over The Moon - NDFS Trolls: World Tour - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Mank (13) - CFCA, CIC, FFCC, HFCS, IPA, LAFCA, MCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA First Cow - SFBAFCC His House - BIFA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - EFA A Portuguesa - ICS BEST SOUND Sound Of Metal (3) - HFCS, ICS, IPA Little Girl - EFA The Reason I Jump - BIFA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Tenet (9) - DFCS, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, NCFCA, NFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA The Invisible Man (2) - CFCA, CIC The Platform - EFA Possessor - FFCC BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Soul (26) - AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, CCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, MSFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, PFCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Wolfwalkers (13) - BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NYFCC, OAFFC, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Josep (2) - EFA, ICS The Wolf House - BSFC BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Another Round (14) - AFCC, AWFJ, CFCA, EFA, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Minari (10) - COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCS, SFCS, VFCC Bacurau (3) - BOFCA, NYFCC, TFCA La Llorona (3) - BSFC, IPA, NBR The Life Ahead (2) - HFCS, SDFCS And Then We Danced - NDFS A Sun - HFCS Beanpole - LAFCA Collective - NSFC His House - CIC Identifying Features - GOTHAM Jumbo - PFCC Los Fuertes - FFCC Martin Eden - OFCC Night Of The Kings - BFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Time (11) - AFCC, BFCC, DFWFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NBR, NYFCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA Collective (9) - BSFC, EFA, IPA, LFCC, OAFFC, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC Dick Johnson Is Dead (8) - CCA, CFCA, COFCA, IFCA, IFJA, NCFCA, OFCS, UFCA Boys State (4) - CIC, DFCS, OFCC, WAFCA All In: The Fight For Democracy (3) - AWFJ, NDFS, NTFCA The Dissident (2) - KCFCC, NFCS The Painter And The Thief (2) - AWFJ, BOFCA Beastie Boys Story - HFCS Crip Camp - IDA The History of the Seattle Mariners: Supercut Edition - SFCS My Octopus Teacher - HFCS The Reason I Jump - BIFA The Social Dilemma - MCFCA A Thousand Cuts - GOTHAM The Way I See It - NYFCO The Year Of The Discovery - ICS You Don't Nomi - FFCC AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
March 2021
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