Surveying The Oscar Field: The Path Is Clearing For Scarlett Johansson

By Matt Neglia 

​​As I said last week, I'm going to be devoting more time towards commenting on this year's awards race here rather than just on the podcast. The hope is that many of you will be able to get a more clear picture as to where my head is at as I continue to make my predictions this awards season. One such category that I've been thinking about a lot over these past few weeks since Telluride has been Best Actress. As of today, I have seen all of the Best Actress contenders with the exception of Saoirse Ronan in "Little Women." Knowing what I know and looking into my crystal ball, it is my belief that the path is beginning to clear for Scarlett Johansson to emerge as the winner on February 9th 2020 for her performance in "Marriage Story."

How did I come to this conclusion? Why do I feel so confident about it and what could possibly change my mind? We all want races for the Oscar to be competitive and this one very well could be. However, there are a few factors that have contributed towards my decision to settle on Johansson as the front-runner...

1. It's Not Just For Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson has never received an Oscar nomination despite working for over 20 years in the business. She came very close in 2003 with her performances in "Lost In Translation" and "Girl With A Pearl Earring" but due to some category confusion, it never materialized. Ever since then, she's gone from romantic comedies to dramas, culminating in her turn as Black Widow in Marvel's "The Avengers" film franchise. Her run as the mysterious Natasha Romanoff came to a (sort of) end this year in "Avengers: Endgame" where her character (SPOILER ALERT for the biggest movie of all time) met her tragic end. A prequel will be released next year with Johansson in the lead role, reprising her character. But other than that, her decade long journey as Black Widow is over. There is certainly sentiment within the industry and amongst fans to see the stars of these massive films receive some sort of recognition and for Johansson, the timing could not be any more perfect. As one door closes and another one opens. She also has a pivotal supporting role in "Jojo Rabbit," which will most likely be another Best Picture nominee alongside "Marriage Story" and Johansson could even be on receiving end of double nominations this year if everything goes her way. With such a prolific year, featuring her best work ever, Johansson has a ton of momentum working in her favor.

2. Best Picture Nominees

I cannot stress this enough. If you look at the history of the Best Actress category since the Best Picture race expanded from five nominees back in 2009, there is something to be said for your film having a corresponding Best Picture nomination. If not, then ask yourself this...were they a steamroller with no competition?

2009: Sandra Bullock - "The Blind Side" (BP Nom)
2010: Natalie Portman - "Black Swan" (BP Nom)
2011: Meryl Streep - "The Iron Lady" (Anomaly)
2012: Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook" (BP Nom)
2013: Cate Blanchett - "Blue Jasmine" (Steamroller)
2014: Julianne Moore - "Still Alice" (Steamroller)
2015: Brie Larson - "Room" (BP Nom)
2016: Emma Stone - "La La Land" (BP Nom)
2017: Frances McDormand - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" (BP Nom)
2018: Olivia Colman - "The Favourite" (BP Nom)

The only year that doesn't hold true to this is Meryl Streep in 2012 with "The Iron Lady" which definitely could parallel this year with Johansson's primary competition: Renée Zellweger in "Judy." Another biopic performance that is currently widely predicted to not receive a Best Picture nomination. Also, like Meryl, Zellweger is a former winner (2003's "Cold Mountain") giving a transformative performance. Zellweger also could like Julianne Moore and Cate Blanchett before her, steamroll the season, winning the majority of the critics' groups and the big industry prizes as well. Should this happen, then Johansson's chances would surely dwindle to virtually nothing but we're not quite there yet. As of right now, on paper, the trend in Best Actress category favors Scarlett Johansson.

But what about other Best Picture nominee hopefuls? What about Charlize Theron (another former winner) in "Bombshell" or Saoirse Ronan in "Little Women," or Awkwafina for "The Farewell?" All currently in the hunt, yes. But will their films receive the same kind of love from the Academy that "Marriage Story" is expected to receive? I personally doubt it. Should either one of those films receive a Best Picture nomination, it will certainly help matters but based on where we are in the season currently, none of them are in the Top 5 contending for a Best Picture win the same way "Marriage Story" is, with the might of Netflix backing it.

And then there are contenders such as Cynthia Erivo in "Harriet," Alfre Woodard for "Clemency," Elisabeth Moss in "Her Smell," Lupita Nyong'o in "Us" to name a few. Each of them delivering strong work. Each of them deserving of a nomination. Each of them lacking the Best Picture heat. And as the category has shown (with the exception of the Meryl Streep year), you either need that Best Picture nomination or you need to be a steamroller. Two things I sadly don't see either of these ladies receiving.

​3. It's The Best Work Of Her Career

A subjective statement, yes. But I bet if you poll most people who have followed Johansson's career closely over the years, many will no doubt say that she gives her most honest, emotive and nuanced performance yet in Noah Baumbach's latest. Some might argue that Adam Driver outshines her, or the film focuses on her male co-star too much. I wholeheartedly disagree. Yes, the film's narrative may follow Adam Driver a little bit more but this does not mean that Johansson does not get afforded the opportunities to make her mark on the screen. She has several big monologues, including one emotionally brutal verbal fight scene with Driver which will go down in cinematic history as one of the best ever. She showcases a full range of emotion, as she takes a complex character and makes her deeply empathetic to the audience. I don't consider "Marriage Story" to be "The Adam Driver Show" or "The Scarlett Johansson Show." It's a two-hander. You can't have one without the other, which is why I also believe that those who love Adam's work in this movie (And believe me, there's a lot of them), will more than likely also mention Johansson alongside him.

I can also make the argument that Zellweger is doing the best work of her career in "Judy." I can also make the argument that Zellweger has the advantage of playing a real-life person who many in Hollywood grew up idolizing and still do to this day. But there's one thing that I have to give the edge to Johansson to and that is "timing." As I said before, the timing could not be better right now for both this point in Johansson's career and also the release of "Marriage Story" which has had a consistent rollout since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival and will continue throughout December when a majority of the world will discover her work on Netflix. "Judy" premiered at Telluride and released in theaters soon after. The buzz was very strong but it hasn't sustained. At this point, for Zellweger to have a year as Meryl Streep did in 2012, her campaign will have to come on even harder than it did when the film premiered. But by that point, will it be too late?

So what could change my mind? Obviously, if someone such as Renée Zellweger starts to steamroll the critics' awards and wins the Critics Choice Award, the Golden Globe, the SAG and the BAFTA, yeah...I'd be crazy to still be sticking with Johansson. If "Judy" somehow receives a Best Picture nomination (unlikely), then that would certainly be a game-changer. The same logic applies to any of the other ladies in the mix as well. If there is a combination of consensus, plus a Best Picture nomination, then it's typically game over. Right now, I think Scarlett Johansson has the best chance at achieving that since "Marriage Story" feels assured to get a nomination, she has never won (nor been nominated before) and is having a banner year in her career. Renée Zellweger could always split precursor wins with Johansson or someone else such as Charlize Theron or Saoirse Ronan could emerge as stronger contenders than their buzz suggests right now. But as of today, right now, I think the path is clear for Scarlett Johansson to go all the way. Now, all she has to do is not say anything damaging to herself during the campaign trail...but let's worry about that for another time, shall we?

Who do you think is the front-runner for Best Actress? Be sure to see our updated Oscar Predictions, updated every Wednesday. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our Twitter account.

You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture