By Michael Schwartz
The race is officially off with the Gotham Awards Nominations being announced and we finally heard some word on "Phantom Thread" with the first trailer being dropped. We might or might not have heard some word on "The Post" but I am refusing to believe the negative rumors until something more concrete presents itself. So on this spooky Halloween day, take a look at where the race stands for me as October comes to a close.
*The following are Michael Schwartz's predictions and do not reflect the thoughts of others at Next Best Picture*
BEST PICTURE
I'm predicting the same group of films from the last round, with a few minor movements. The only one we are still waiting to see is Spielberg’s “The Post”. All other titles have either released or will be debuting within weeks. This is the ultimate test. Now that festivals are over, voters will have an opportunity to lay eyes on buzzed about contenders. Will they go for a sci-fi romance or a gay coming of age story? How about a socially relevant midwestern dramedy? The race is still wide open as we enter November. Now is the time to pay attention.
Predicted Nominees: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Call Me By Your Name The Post The Shape Of Water Dunkirk Darkest Hour The Florida Project Get Out Lady Bird I, Tonya BEST DIRECTOR
“Dunkirk” has one obstacle to overcome between now and the close of voting- it needs to stay relevant. This is not a film that benefits from a small screen, and it hasn't been accessible in theaters for months. Warner Brothers would be wise to keep buzz going by screening the film in theaters for voting members. That could be key to giving Christopher Nolan his long overdue nomination for Best Director, and possibly a win for his work on the WWII epic. As for the rest of the field, no changes this time around.
Predicted Nominees: Christopher Nolan - “Dunkirk” Guillermo del Toro - “The Shape Of Water” Martin McDonagh - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Luca Guadagnino - “Call Me By Your Name” Joe Wright - “Darkest Hour” Don't Count Out: Steven Spielberg - “The Post” Sean Baker - “The Florida Project” Greta Gerwig - “Lady Bird” Denis Villeneuve - “Blade Runner 2049” Jordan Peele - “Get Out” BEST ACTOR
We finally got a first look at Gary Oldman’s potential competition when the trailer for “Phantom Thread” dropped. While the three-time winner looks tremendous as always, it is not a transformative role. That hurts when going up against Oldman as Churchill. There are cases to be made for people such as Jake Gyllenhaal and Christian Bale squeezing in, but I think this is our lineup when all is said and done.
Predicted Nominees Gary Oldman - “Darkest Hour” Daniel Day-Lewis - “Phantom Thread” Timothée Chalamet - “Call Me By Your Name” Tom Hanks - “The Post” James Franco - “The Disaster Artist” Don't Count Out: Jake Gyllenhaal - “Stronger” Christian Bale - “Hostiles” Denzel Washington - “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” Andrew Garfield - “Breathe” Daniel Kaluuya - “Get Out” BEST ACTRESS
The category that was once impossible to narrow down is making more and more sense by the day. I see it between eight contenders at the moment- McDormand and Hawkins represent the only two “locks” given overwhelmingly positive festival reception for both actresses and films. Margot Robbie continues to win praise for her performance as Tonya Harding in “I, Tonya”, but I want to wait and see how the film itself performs in wide release before making any definitive calls (one festival is not enough to go by). Save a spot for Meryl Streep, and you are left with space for only one more nominee. Will it be Judi Dench? Saoirse Ronan? Jessica Chastain? Kate Winslet? It's anyone's call. I'm going to be cautious and say Judi Dench sneaks in based on love from “old school” voters. Her film is a big box office success story, and she is in fine form as Queen Victoria. Don't discount anyone, however. There's still some movement to be had here. Who ends up winning will be a totally different conversation for another day.
Predicted Nominees: Frances McDormand - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Sally Hawkins - “The Shape Of Water” Margot Robbie - “I, Tonya” Meryl Streep - “The Post” Judi Dench - “Victoria And Abdul” Don't Count Out: Saoirse Ronan - “Lady Bird” Jessica Chastain - “Molly’s Game” Kate Winslet - “Wonder Wheel” Annette Bening - “Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool” Vicky Kreips - “Phantom Thread” BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe is really wonderful in “The Florida Project." He is tender, warm, and the heart of that incredibly powerful film. He can wain, but I wouldn't call it a done deal. Sam Rockwell has been coming on strong with his scene-stealing performance in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”. While he doesn't have two previous nominations like Dafoe, Rockwell has been in the trenches for nearly three decades. That's not for nothing. I see this race playing out between the two men up until Oscar night. Filling up the rest of the five, Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer seem safe as their film prepares to open. The fans are out in force. All voters need to do is embrace the film. For the final spot, I'm inclined to predict Dustin Hoffman for his wonderful work in “The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)." However, I still don't have faith in the Netflix campaign system. There's a world where it happens, but I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, “The Shape Of Water” co-star Richard Jenkins rounds out the bunch.
Predicted Nominees: Willem Dafoe - “The Florida Project” Sam Rockwell - “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Michael Stuhlbarg - “Call Me By Your Name” Armie Hammer - “Call Me By Your Name” Richard Jenkins - “The Shape Of Water” Don't Count Out: Dustin Hoffman - “The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” Mark Rylance - “Dunkirk” Michael Shannon - “The Shape Of Water” Ben Mendelsohn - “Darkest Hour” Idris Elba - “Molly’s Game” BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf remain out in front with Melissa Leo and Holly Hunter also close behind. The most interesting development here is the first footage we’ve seen of Lesley Manville in “Phantom Thread”. No word on how big or small the role is, but Manville has been on many radars since her 2010 snub for Mike Leigh’s “Another Year”. If not Manville, I would watch for Octavia Spencer showing up for “The Shape Of Water." The always terrific former winner could prevent yet another instance of “Oscar So White”.
Predicted Nominees: Allison Janney - “I, Tonya” Laurie Metcalf - “Lady Bird” Melissa Leo - “Novitiate” Holly Hunter - “The Big Sick” Lesley Manville - “Phantom Thread” Don't Count Out: Octavia Spencer - “The Shape Of Water” Mary J. Blige - “Mudbound” Kristin Scott Thomas - “Darkest Hour” Carrie Coon - “The Post” Hong Chau - “Downsizing” BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Adapted Screenplay continues to stand as the thinnest major category this year. James Ivory ought to pick up his award now.
Predicted Nominees: Call Me By Your Name Molly’s Game The Disaster Artist Hostiles Last Flag Flying Don't Count Out: Mudbound All The Money In The World Wonderstruck First They Killed My Father Star Wars: The Last Jedi BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is a category that often rewards the “writers writer” who just also happens to be director. Spike Jonze, Tom McCarthy, Kenneth Lonergan. This year gives us contenders in Martin McDonagh, Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Sean Baker. Makes up for the lack of competition in adapted.
Predicted Nominees: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Post Get Out The Shape Of Water Lady Bird Don't Count Out: Phantom Thread I, Tonya The Florida Project Darkest Hour The Big Sick BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Coco” may not be Pixar’s most lauded film, but it certainly has fans. In a pretty weak year, that’s enough to help it cross the finish line. Plus the fact that the film celebrates Mexican culture serves as a nice boost in the age of Trump’s hateful rhetoric against
Hispanics. Predicted Nominees: Coco Ferdinand Cars 3 The Breadwinner Mary And The Witch’s Flower Don't Count Out: Loving Vincent The Lego Batman Movie Despicable Me 3 The Boss Baby In This Corner Of The World BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Does a day go by without seeing Agnes Varda charm her way across the campaign trail? She is a legend in the perfect spot to pull off a win for “Visages/Villages”. However, National Geographic's Jane Goodall documentary, “Jane” is also receiving stellar reviews. That must be considered as a top contender as well.
Predicted Nominees: Faces/Places Jane Icarus Step City Of Ghosts Don't Count Out: Whose Streets? Chasing Coral Strong Island Hell On Earth Bobbi Jene BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
While festival buzz for “Foxtrot” has yet to quiet down, Cannes favorites such as “Beats Per Minute” and “The Square” are impressing in limited release. Another Cannes title, “Loveless”, opens next month. All four feel safe here. If the foreign language branch is able to embrace an A-list star such as Angelina Jolie, “First They Killed My Father” could contend as well. But as always, we tend to see nomination morning surprises here. Watch out for “A Fantastic Woman”, which is drawing raves for transgender star Daniela Vega.
Predicted Nominees: Foxtrot First They Killed My Father Loveless The Square BPM (Beats Per Minute) Don't Count Out: Happy End A Fantastic Woman Pop Aye Razzia Racer And The Jailbird What are your thoughts on the race so far? Do you disagree with my predictions? Please let us know in the comments below and be sure to check out the rest of the team's predictions below. BEST PICTURE BEST DIRECTOR BEST ACTOR BEST ACTRESS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY BEST ANIMATED FEATURE BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM You can follow Michael and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @mikemovie
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BEST PICTURE Nomadland (11) - AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIC, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, IFJA, NSFC, TIFF, VENICE Promising Young Woman (4) - COFCA, MCFCA, SCA, SDFCS First Cow (2) - FFCC, NYFCC Minari (2) - NCFCA, OFCC Another Round - EFA Da 5 Bloods - CIC Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - CIC Small Axe - LAFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 - HFCS BEST DIRECTOR Chloé Zhao (15) - AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, IFJA, LAFCA, MSFCA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCC, SDFCS Spike Lee (2) - CIC, HFCS Darius Marder - SCA Andrew Patterson - GOTHAM Thomas Vinterberg - EFA BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand (10) - AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, NSFC, OFCC Carey Mulligan (4) - COFCA, LAFCA, MCFCA, SCA, SDFCS Sidney Flanigan (2) - BSFC, NYFCC Paula Beer - EFA Nicole Beharie - GOTHAM Viola Davis - CIC BEST ACTOR Riz Ahmed (6) - COFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS Chadwick Boseman (5) - AWFJ, CFCA, CIC, LAFCA, MSFCA Delroy Lindo (6) - BOFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC Anthony Hopkins (2) - BSFC, FFCC Mads Mikkelsen - EFA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Youn Yuh-jung (10) - AWFJ, BSFC, COFCA, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS Maria Bakalaova (8) - BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, IFJA, MCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC Olivia Cooke - HFCS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Raci (11) - BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, NSFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS Sacha Baron Cohen (2) - MCFCA, NCFCA Chadwick Boseman (2) - CIC, NYFCC Leslie Odom Jr. (2) - AWFJ, IFJA Glynn Turman - LAFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nomadland (8) - AWFJ, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, OFCC I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (3) - BOFCA, BSFC, FFCC The Father (2) - SCA, SDFCS Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - CIC BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (5) - CFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC Promising Young Woman (5) - AWFJ, CIC, COFCA, LAFCA, OFCC Minari (3) - FFCC, NCFCA, SDFCS The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (3) - CIC, HFCS, MCFCA Another Round - EFA The Forty-Year-Old-Version - GOTHAM Fourteen - GOTHAM BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Nomadland (11) - AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, GWNYFCA, MCFCA, NCFCA, NSFC, SDFCS Mank (3) - FFCC, OFCC, SCA Small Axe (2) - LAFCA, NYFCC Hidden Away - EFA Tenet - HFCS BEST COSTUME DESIGN Emma. (2) - CFCA, SDFCS Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2) - CIC, HFCS Hidden Away - EFA BEST FILM EDITING The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (4) - CIC, COFCA, HFCS, MCFCA Nomadland (3) - AWFJ, BOFCA, GWNYFCA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (2) - BSFC, CFCA The Invisible Man (2) - MCFCA, SDFCS The Father - LAFCA Once More Unto The Breach - EFA BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Endless Trench - EFA Mank - HFCS Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - CIC BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Soul (9) - BOFCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, FFCC, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NCFCA, OFCC Tenet (3) - IFJA, MCFCA, SCA Berlin Alexanderplatz - EFA Mank - HFCS Minari - BSFC BEST ORIGINAL SONG One Night In Miami (3) - CIC, HFCS, MCFCA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Mank (7) - CFCA, CIC, FFCC, HFCS, LAFCA, MCFCA, SDFCS The Personal History Of David Copperfield - EFA BEST SOUND Little Girl - EFA Sound Of Metal - HFCS BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Tenet (3) - HFCS, NCFCA, SDFCS The Invisible Man (2) - CFCA, CIC The Platform - EFA Possessor - FFCC BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Soul (8) - AWFJ, CCA, CIC, FFCC, IFJA, MSFCA, NCFCA, OFCC Wolfwalkers (7) - BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SDFCS Josep - EFA The Wolf House - BSFC BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Another Round (6) - AWFJ, CFCA, EFA, IFJA, MCFCA, NCFCA Bacurau (2) - BOFCA, NYFCC The Life Ahead (2) - HFCS, SDFCS Minari (2) - COFCA, GWNYFCA Beanpole - LAFCA Collective - NSFC His House - CIC Identifying Features - GOTHAM La Llorona - BSFC Los Fuertes - FFCC Martin Eden - OFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Dick Johnson Is Dead (5) - CCA, CFCA, COFCA, IFJA, NCFCA Time (5) - GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SDFCS Boys State (2) - CIC, OFCC Collective (2) - BSFC, EFA The Painter And The Thief (2) - AWFJ, BOFCA All In: The Fight For Democracy - AWFJ Beastie Boys Story - HFCS The Social Dilemma - MCFCA A Thousand Cuts - GOTHAM You Don't Nomi - FFCC AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
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