Predicting The 92nd Academy Awards

By Matt Neglia 

I love stats. I love the precursors. I love what they can and sometimes can't tell you about the Oscar race. For the purposes of this final Oscar predictions article, I'm going to use stats to make predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards. Some of these will be easier than others. And for some, we'll have to throw away the stats all together and rely on our gut instinct to help us figure out what's going to win an Oscar this Sunday. I have put together charts for each category (even if the category is locked) which I hope to keep referencing for years to come. You can also listen to my final Oscar Predictions on this week's latest edition of the podcast here.

So get ready. Here are my in-depth predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards.

​BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Let's start off with something easy that has no room for interpretation. The nominees for Best International Feature are...

Corpus Cristi​
Honeyland
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite

And here is the chart breakdown for the category dating back to when Critics Choice started handing out awards for Best International Feature Film...

It's going to be "Parasite." No matter what happens elsewhere throughout the night, Bong Joon-ho will get up on that stage at least once. There are two things which make this a slam dunk: 1. No Foreign Language Film nominated for Best Picture has lost International Feature and 2. No Foreign Language film that has won Critics Choice, Golden Globe & BAFTA, has lost the Oscar for Best International Feature. This will be the first win ever for South Korea and it couldn't have gone to a better film.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Parasite"
RUNNER-UP: "Pain and Glory"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Parasite"

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Now this one is a bit tricker to predict. As of this writing, we don't know what will win the Indie Spirit Award yet for Best Documentary but let's assume it's "Apollo 11," which like "Jane" and "Won't You Be My Neighbor?" before it, was the precursor juggernaut that failed to even garner a nomination. The five documentary films nominated instead are...

American Factory
The Cave
The Edge Of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

"Honeyland" is in interesting territory as it's the first documentary to also be nominated for Best International Feature film. It has also won the second most precursors to "Apollo 11's" massive 36 with 7 wins as shown below...

Honeyland (7) - BSFC, DFCS, GALECA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCC
For Sama (6) - BAFTA, BIFA, EFA, IDA, IFJA, LFCC
American Factory (4) - IFP, LAFCA, OFCC, TFCA

​"American Factory" won the DGA, which has translated over to a Best Documentary Feature win at the Oscars only 22% of the time. Meanwhile "For Sama" won at the BAFTAs which has a 50% match with the Oscars, including last year's winner "Free Solo." While on a personal level, I think "For Sama" is the best of the category and should win, "American Factory" has received a large publicity push due to its connections to the Obamas, its backing from Netflix and the sad news that its director Julia Reichert is battling cancer. Holding my breath on this one and letting the stats guide me.

PREDICTED WINNER: "For Sama"
RUNNER-UP: "American Factory"
PREFERRED WINNER: "For Sama"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Another brutal category this year which felt like a lock early on but has become more competitive as the season has gone on, here are the nominees for Best Animated Feature...

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

The Academy has had a long history with Disney/Pixar and specifically the "Toy Story" franchise which was the birth of the critically acclaimed animated studio. The first film received a special Academy Award in 1995 for its groundbreaking technical achievements being the first computer animated feature. The second film received a nomination for Best Original Song (the Animated Feature category did not yet exist in 1999 but my guess is it would've won). The third film received multiple nominations including Best Picture and won Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature, making it the first and only sequel to win this category. And therein lies the issue: sequels.

​While "Toy Story 4" is no doubt a great movie (even if it's not at the same level as the previous three) there may be a bit of fatigue setting in and I think the precursors have shown that with Critics Choice, Golden Globes & BAFTA going to three different films. This has never happened before as the race is usually between two films  or one film dominates the entire season. So where will things go? Will it go with CCA/PGA winner "Toy Story 4?" Keep in mind that "Cars" & "Wreck-It Ralph" both had that combination as well (we're disregarding "The Lego Movie" since it famously wasn't nominated) and both still lost to the BAFTA winner. Will it go to this year's BAFTA plus Annie Award winner "Klaus?" Or will "Missing Link" pull off yet another shocking upset as it did at the Golden Globes?

​No Best Animated Feature winner has ever won without one of these prizes so that rules out "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" & "I Lost My Body." From a stats perspective it's very tight but I'm going to go with my gut (and the slightly higher stats) and say "Klaus" takes it because while a CCA/PGA winner has lost before, a BAFTA/Annie winner has yet to be dethroned. Then again...Laika pulled out all the stops for their campaign for "Missing Link" this year. Maybe it was enough to give the stop-motion animated studio their first win? I wouldn't be surprised.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Klaus"
RUNNER-UP: "Missing Link"
PREFERRED WINNER: "I Lost My Body"

​BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Toy Story 4" is back with another nomination in Best Original Song, a category the franchise won in 2010. What will happen this year? The nominees are...

Into the Unknown - Frozen II
I’m Gonna Love Me Again - Rocketman
Stand Up - Harriet
I'm Standing With You - Breakthrough
I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4

With the exception of 2004's Old Habits Die Hard from "Alfie," no song that has won at Critics Choice & Golden Globe has gone on to miss the Oscar. This is also the category with the lowest percentage of having a correlating Best Picture nomination, something all of this year's nominees have in common. "Rocketman" undeservedly got almost shut out of this  year's Oscar ceremony but the one nomination it got was for Elton John and longtime collaborator Bernie Taupin's song I'm Gonna Love Me Again. Once the two of them announced at the Golden Globes that they had never won an award together before as a duo, it pretty much sealed the deal for this crowd pleaser. Elton John may already be an Oscar winner but people love Elton, they love his Oscar parties and I think despite the sole nomination, "Rocketman" is a film they also love. But you know what they love more? An Oscar moment. And granting one to these two long time friends (which also ties in with the story of the movie) is too good to pass up.

PREDICTED WINNER: "I’m Gonna Love Me Again - Rocketman"
RUNNER-UP: "Stand Up - Harriet"
PREFERRED WINNER: "I’m Gonna Love Me Again - Rocketman"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Another easy one to call (but for sad reasons which I'll get to in a minute) here are the nominees for Best Original Score...

1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

With the exception of 2005's "Memoirs Of A Geisha," which won Critics Choice, Golden Globe & BAFTA for Original Score, no film which has won all three has ever gone on to lose the Oscar. We can chalk up John Williams' loss in 2005 to a few factors. He split votes with himself for his score to "Munich." He lost to a Best Picture nominee (which the stats also heavily favor in this category). He had also won mulitple times before. This year, Thomas Newman is not competing with himself, is on his fifteenth nomination without a win, has a score for a Best Picture nominee (and presumed frontrunner) and yet, the stats show he's most certainly going to lose yet again to this year's sweeper, first-time nominee (and with a Best Picture nomination to boot), Hildur Guðnadóttir. While my heart breaks for Newman, Hildur will become the fourth woman to win an Oscar for an Original Score but will be the first to do so on her own in a single Score category (Rachel Portman won in 1996 when the Score category was split between Dramatic and Comedy/Musical for "Emma" as did Anne Dudley in the following year in 1997 for "The Full Monty"). "Joker" also leads in overall Oscar nominations with 11 and basic math suggests it needs to win something else other than Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor, and this is where the stats show it will be.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Joker"
RUNNER-UP: "1917"
PREFERRED WINNER: "1917"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Here is one category where your Oscar pool will either live or die this year. The nominees for Best Visual Effects are...

1917
​Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

"Spider-Man 2" and "Ex-Machina" remain the only two films to win Best Visual Effects without a single win from either Critics Choice, Visual Effects Society or BAFTA. They both also didn't have Best Picture nominations, with "Ex-Machina" being the only winner in this category to ever defeat a (or in its case multiple) Best Picture nominee. Could "Avengers: Endgame" or "The Lion King" be heading down a similar road this year after they won at Critics Choice and Visual Effects Society respectively? One could be seen as a way to reward an entire 21 film franchise "Return of the King" style. The other certainly has "the most" visual effects and recent Oscar winner "The Jungle Book" was able to win with similar work.

However,  stats still suggest that a Best Picture nominee will prevail here and the two nominated here are "1917" and "The Irishman." The former won the BAFTA while the later won Best Supporting Visual Effects at the VES Awards. While "Hugo" and last year's winner "First Man" were able to ride their Supporting Visual Effects VES awards to eventual Oscar wins, the visual effects on "The Irishman" have received a lot of criticism with many Oscar voters proclaiming that they couldn't buy into the de-aging work done on actors Robert De Niro, Al Pacino & Joe Pesci. Meanwhile, "1917" is riding a wave of momentum at the moment as the Best Picture frontrunner and just recently won the BAFTA. My gut tells me it repeats here further continuing a "Gravity" comparison which I'll come back to later.

PREDICTED WINNER: "1917"
RUNNER-UP: "The Irishman"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Avengers: Endgame"

​BEST SOUND MIXING

Oh boy. Here we go! The fun sound categories that no one seems to care about other than us Oscarologists. First up is Best Sound Mixing which I'll remind you all again is THE BALANCING OF SOUND LEVELS. This means dialogue, sound effects, music, etc. all need to be adjusted in terms of volume so that your ears don't explode while watching a movie. If that explanation still doesn't make sense to you...fear not as there will likely only be one sound category next year as many Academy members don't know the difference between this and Sound Editing either (which by the way is THE CREATION OF SOUNDS). I'm going to get off my soapbox now. Here are this year's nominees for Best Sound Mixing...

1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Sound Mixing and Editing usually pair up with each other more often than not. This year 4/5 of the nominees overlap in both categories. Best Picture nominees tend to do better here than in Sound Editing but this year both categories also have 4/5 Best Picture nominees. I love "Ad Astra" but with this being that film's sole nomination we can rule that one out immediately. We can also probably rule out "Joker" & "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" as neither won CAS or BAFTA (or Sound Editing's MPSE award as "Hacksaw Ridge" did in 2016) and are not expected to win Sound Editing either. That leaves BAFTA winner "1917" and CAS/MPSE winner "Ford v Ferrari."

​BAFTA has the best stats when it comes to matching with the Oscar for Sound Mixing. Both "1917" and "Ford v Ferrari" were nominated at BAFTA & MPSE. "1917" won at BAFTA while "Ford v Ferrari" won at MPSE. "Ford v Ferrari" also won at CAS where "1917" wasn't nominated. Maybe things would've been different if it were? I'm leaning towards the Best Picture frontrunner more in this case but a split wouldn't surprise me.

PREDICTED WINNER: "1917"
RUNNER-UP: "Ford v Ferrari"
PREFERRED WINNER: "1917"

BEST SOUND EDITING

Let's reiterate it one more time for those who didn't quite catch it before....Best Sound Mixing is THE BALANCING OF SOUND LEVELS. Best Sound Editing is THE CREATION OF SOUNDS. With that out of the way, here are this year's nominees for Best Sound Editing...

1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Like "Ad Astra," we can say goodbye to "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" right away. Same with "Joker" & "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood." The question is, will "1917" take both sound awards or will it split with MPSE/CAS winner "Ford v Ferrari."

​Where before I said how war films tend to do very well in the sound categories, car films are less successful with only "Speed" and "Mad Max: Fury Road" winning in the chart above since 1993. While I still think there's a chance for "Ford v Ferrari" to win somewhere at the Oscars, I don't think it will be here despite the MPSE's high correlation with this category compared to CAS and BAFTA. One thing to keep in mind is that "1917" was not nominated at CAS against "Ford v Ferrari." Interestingly enough, the CAS winner has correctly predicted the Sound Editing winner 9/26 times but only one of those times was it for a film that only won Sound Editing and not both (2003's "Master and Commander: The Far Side Of The World"). The MPSE winner has told us the Sound Mixing winner 11/26 times with "Gladiator" and "Black Hawk Down" being the only two films to not also take Bast Sound Editing. I still wonder what would've happened if enough voters saw "1917" in time to nominate it at CAS. However, the fact that it's a frontrunner to win Best Picture, a war film, has a higher nomination count and won the BAFTA all leads me to believe that both awards will go to "1917." However, because voters still don't understand the differences between both categories after all of these years, expect the unexpected.

PREDICTED WINNER: "1917"
RUNNER-UP: "Ford v Ferrari"
PREFERRED WINNER: "1917"

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

In what is probably one of the few tech locks of the night, Best Makeup  and Hairstyling finally has five nominees to help us make sense of what is going to go down in this category. The five nominees are...

1917
Bombshell
Judy
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil

"American Hustle" is the only film to have won Critics Choice, MUAHS & BAFTA for Best Makeup & Hairstyling and lose at the Oscars (to another MUAHS winner, "Dallas Buyers Club"). Could a similar fate be waiting for "Bombshell" which has swept the season but may also lose out to another winner at MUAHS which also happens to be a Best Picture nominee? One thing that people are underestimating about "Joker" is how its makeup is tied so closely with its presumed Best Actor winner. "La Vie En Rose," "The Iron Lady," "Les Miserables," "Dallas Buyers Club" & "Darkest Hour" all won an acting award to compliment their Makeup wins. This also benefits "Judy" which has presumed a Best Actress winner tied to it as well. However, "Joker" has the slight edge being the film with 11 nominations including Best Picture and the MUAHS win. Despite "Bombshell" winning across the board, I wonder if this is as open and shut as we all thing. My gut tells me there is a surprise waiting to happen here especially if voters are bored of the historical figure look-alike makeup of the past two years with "Darkest Hour" and "Vice." If you want to risk going against "Bombshell," I certainly won't stop you but I refuse to go against the stats on this one.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Bombshell"
RUNNER-UP: "Joker"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Bombshell"

​BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Much like Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, Best Production & Costume Design are joined pretty much at the hip. Take a look at the stats below to back it up. Here are the nominees for Best Production Design...

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

I dare not go against the the corresponding Costume Design nomination stat here. So right away I'm eliminating "1917" despite its BAFTA win. I'm tempted to hold on to "Parasite" due to its ADG win, as "Pan's Labyrinth" was able to win the Oscar without a Costume Design nomination and a sole win at ADG. However, that was in the Fantasy category while "Parasite's" win was in the contemporary category. "La La Land" remains the only film to win the Oscar for Production Design with a contemporary win at the Art Director's Guild but at least it had a Costume Design nomination and a Critics Choice win as well. So, as much as I'd love to see "Parasite" prevail here, the stats simply don't back it up.

That leaves "The Irishman," "Jojo Rabbit" & "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood." Here's what I know for sure...ever since Critics Choice has been around, no film that has won both CCA & ADG with a Best Picture nomination AND a corresponding Costume Design nomination has lost the Oscar for Best Production Design. So "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" it is!

PREDICTED WINNER: "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
RUNNER-UP: "Parasite"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Parasite"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

All this talk about Costume Design, might as well now talk about Best Costume Design. Here are the nominees this year for Best Costume Design...

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This one is definitely tricker than we all think. The key stat here is still the corresponding Best Production Design nomination which "The Irishman," "Jojo Rabbit" & "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" all still have. I'm going to write off "Joker" immediately as it doesn't have a Production Design nomination (shockingly) and failed to win a single award in this category all season. It's honestly a miracle it even got nominated here but I guess the Academy really likes Mark Bridges.

​The one time a film won Best Costume Design since 1999 without a Best Production Design nomination while still winning other key precursors was "Phantom Thread" in 2017. This is the one area where most are likely to make a comparison to "Little Women" which also won the BAFTA, is a Best Picture nominee but doesn't have a Production Design nomination. For years though, this category was all about the big, lavish & colorful period dresses that "Little Women" may remind voters of.

Maybe "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" will pull a "Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them" and win this category without having won any other precursors but still having both Costume Design and Production Design nominations. It's more heavily favored to do so than "The Irishman" which hasn't made a dent in either category all season long. "Jojo Rabbit" I think is the more likely contender here after winning at the Costume Designers Guild, being a Best Picture nominee and having that darn Production Design nomination. I honestly should be picking it. However, I'm going to say this will be "Little Women's" sole win on the night. "Jojo Rabbit" has some very good work, especially in regards to Scarlett Johansson's character, but the work feels repetitive and nowhere near as varied as the work done in "Little Women." I'll probably regret this later...

PREDICTED WINNER: "Little Women"
RUNNER-UP: "Jojo Rabbit"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

After a lot of debating and back and forth, we finally have a lock on our hands! The nominees this year for Best Cinematography are...

1917
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Roger Deakins is going to win his second Oscar. Nothing else needs to be said. As you can see above, no one has ever won Critics Choice, ASC & BAFTA and then lost the Oscar. One of the easiest calls of the night. Feels good to make it up to Deakins by rewarding him multiple times after so many losses in the past.

PREDICTED WINNER: "1917"
RUNNER-UP: "Joker"
PREFERRED WINNER: "1917"

​BEST FILM EDITING

Ok, this one is definitely a lot harder to predict this year than the last tech category and it's also the one more tied to Best Picture than any other. Here are your five nominees for Best Film Editing...

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

All five nominees are Best Picture nominees with "Parasite" & "Jojo Rabbit" having won at ACE while "Ford v Ferrari" won at BAFTA. Could "The Irishman" or "Joker" surprise and win after not winning at ACE, CCA or BAFTA? I mean, it hasn't happened since Critics Choice started handing out an Editing award in 2009, so I'm going to rule those two out. The ACE stat is very strong and dates back all the way to the 60's. However, their track record has been shakier the last couple of years.

In terms of where I currently have things set up now...if BAFTA winner "Ford v Ferrari" wins here, this will be its only win of the evening which would put it up with "Bullitt" and "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo" as the only three films to win Best Film Editing and nothing else at the Oscars. What makes far more sense is "Parasite" winning, as it is expected to win more Oscars and is more solidly in the hunt for a Best Picture win. "Jojo Rabbit" would become only the second Comedy/Musical winner at ACE to win the Oscar (the first being "Chicago") putting the stats more behind "Parasite" for the win. On a personal level, while "Ford v Ferrari" may have "the most" editing, it is my belief that the editing of "Parasite" is precisely what makes it such an enjoyable and breezy watch for audiences and I think Academy members will recognize that.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Parasite"
RUNNER-UP: "Ford v Ferrari"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Parasite"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

It's Bong Joon-ho vs. Quentin Tarantino but let's take a look at the nominees and the stats before we figure out who is going to prevail here.

1917
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite 

In the age of the preferential ballot, the screenplay categories have become more important to predicting Best Picture than Best Director used to be. So every year now, we pay close attention to which films are contending in these categories and this year it's a battle between two Best Picture nominees: "Parasite" vs. "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood." The former has won the Writers Guild Award and the BAFTA while the later won the Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards for Best Screenplay. While no film has ever won JUST the Critics Choice & Golden Globe for Screenplay and gone on to win Best Original Screenplay, there have been two instances where a film has won JUST the WGA & BAFTA and gone on to win Best Original Screenplay. This, coupled along with the fact that WGA and BAFTA have Academy membership overlap and have a higher percentage of matching with the Oscar winner than Critics Choice and Golden Globe, gives me the belief that "Parasite" will just edge of Tarantino. I'm sure he'll be ok with his other two screenwriting Oscars and besides...he still has one more film still left to go, right?

PREDICTED WINNER: "Parasite"
RUNNER-UP: "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Parasite"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Another two horse race in a screenplay category. This one is also between two Best Picture nominees, each with two big prizes heading into the night. Which one will come out on top? Here are the five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay...

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Greta Gerwig looked like she was going to win this category after she failed to get a Best Director nomination for "Little Women." Many felt this would be a good place to give her a consolation prize and things certainly started off that way when she won Best Adapted Screenplay from the Critics Choice and the USC Scripter. However, over the last week, original frontrunner Taikia Waititi surged back with wins at WGA & BAFTA for his WWII satire "Jojo Rabbit." Talk about a category where we've seen strange things happen. Both "Gods and Monsters" and "The Cider House Rules" were able to win this category without any major precursor wins but for the sake of our own sanity, let's assume this is between Waititi and Gerwig.

The only two times a film won both USC Scripter and Critics Choice but lost the Oscar was with "The English Patient" and "Up In The Air" (which famously swept the entire season but lost the Oscar to "Precious"). Meanwhile, "Up In The Air" is also the only time a WGA/BAFTA winner has lost the Oscar as well.

Here are the Critics Choice/USC combos that won the Oscar...

Critics Choice/USC
Sense & Sensibility
L.A. Confidential
Slumdog Millionaire
The Social Network
12 Years A Slave
The Big Short
Call Me By Your Name

​And here are the WGA/BAFTA combos that won the Oscar...

WGA/BAFTA
Traffic
Sideways
Brokeback Mountain
Slumdog Millionaire
The Social Network
Call Me By Your Name

It's once again pretty split but much like Original Screenplay, I need to go with my gut on this one and my gut says the industry likes "Jojo Rabbit" more than "Little Women." One has acquired more guild nominations and wins, while the other has struggled to make its presence known in this year's Oscar race. One feels like a stealth contender to actually win Best Picture while the other just feels lucky to be here considering the condensed season barely gave voters enough time to catch up with it. The WGA/BAFTA stats individually are also a tad bit higher than Critics Choice/USC which is why I'm going to lean more towards Taikia on this one but it's really close.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Jojo Rabbit"
RUNNER-UP: "Little Women"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Little Women"

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ah the acting categories. The most competitive categories of the season...usually. But not this year. Nope. Much like 2017, the four acting categories are all sewn up as each actor has swept the major precursors this year, giving them all an unstoppable march to Oscar glory on February 9th.

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
​Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I've included the charts for fun but there's no need to even discuss these in detail. There has only been one situation where a single actor won Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA and then went on to lose the Oscar. Russell Crowe for Best Actor in 2001 for "A Beautiful Mind" and we can pretty much chalk that up to his phone throwing incident at BAFTA while the voting was taking place. And all four actors have not thrown a phone or a temper tantrum this year so... Congratulations to Brad Pitt on his first acting Oscar and second Oscar overall (he previously won for producing 2013 Best Picture winner "12 Years A Slave").

PREDICTED WINNER: "Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
RUNNER-UP: "Joe Pesci - The Irishman"
PREFERRED WINNER: "​Al Pacino - The Irishman"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Same as the above. Nothing to discuss.

Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

I'm very happy that Laura Dern will finally have an Oscar. It's been a long time coming. Much like Allison Janney's sweep year in 2017, I wish it was for perhaps a different role but I will never be upset that either one of them has an Oscar after putting in years of great work. Congratulations Laura Dern!

PREDICTED WINNER: "Laura Dern - Marriage Story"
RUNNER-UP: "Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Florence Pugh - Little Women"

BEST ACTOR

We're just moving along here...

Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
​Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

One of the most competitive Best Actor categories in years to become a nominee for all boiled down to 4 nominees inevitably losing to Joaquin Phoenix for his brilliantly tormented performance in "Joker." Much like Laura Dern, this has been a long time coming for Joaquin and while I know many also wish it wasn't happening for this film or this role, we should all be happy that one of our most beloved and talented actors finally got this moment of recognition, even if he himself hates the attention and the spotlight it casts upon him.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Joaquin Phoenix - Joker"
RUNNER-UP: "Adam Driver - Marriage Story"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Joaquin Phoenix - Joker"

BEST ACTRESS

And finally...

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
​Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellweger - Judy

I'll admit it. I was skeptical of whether or not Zellweger could pull off a second win. When I saw the film at Telluride, I knew the performance had the goods to be nominated but winning a second Oscar is always difficult, especially if it's in a non-Best Picture nominee. We knew that Zellweger had to sweep the season and she has done just that. Congratulations to her and as my friend Erik Anderson pointed out, she now joins Daniel Day Lewis as only the second person to twice sweep the entire season including the Oscar. Pretty awesome stuff!

​Now watch one of these four lose and this entire article looks ridiculous!

PREDICTED WINNER: "Renee Zellweger - Judy"
RUNNER-UP: "​Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Saoirse Ronan - Little Women"

​BEST DIRECTOR

Another easy category to predict this year is Best Director as one man has swept the entire season as well.

Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Todd Phillips - Joker
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

After winning his first Oscar for his debut feature "American Beauty" 20 years ago, Sam Mendes is going to win his second Oscar for directing "1917." No director has ever won Critics Choice, Golden Globe, DGA and BAFTA and then gone on to lose the Oscar for Best Director. We've also seen how in recent years, Best Director is rewarded to the more showy achievement which also wins a couple of technical awards as well ("Life Of Pi," "Gravity," "The Revenant," "La La Land, " "Roma," etc.) Sam Mendes' WWI epic "1917" perfectly fits that bill as I currently have it winning 5 of its 10 nominations. Will number 6 be next...?

PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Mendes - "1917"
RUNNER-UP: Bong Joon Ho - "Parasite"
PREFERRED WINNER: Bong Joon Ho - "Parasite"

BEST PICTURE

And now, we finally come down to this....Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees for Best Picture...

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

It's a battle between "1917" and "Parasite" with other craziness that could happen due to the preferential ballot style of voting. Technically, screenplay contenders "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," "Jojo Rabbit" and yes, even "Little Women" could all be in the hunt to win the whole thing if either one of them win early on in the night for their respective screenplay category. However, due to the precursors, the buzz and the passion, this race is down to "1917" and "Parasite."

Heading into the night "1917" has guild wins from...CAS, ASC, DGA & PGA

"Parasite" has guild wins from...ACE, ADG, WGA & SAG

"1917" has won Best Picture from the Golden Globes and the BAFTA. It has 10 Oscar nominations compared to "Parasite's" 6. It is going to win the most Oscars on the night no questions asked. It has the PGA win, the only other award to use a preferential ballot like the Academy does for Best Picture. All the stats say that "1917" is going to win Best Picture. However, all of the stats also said that "La La Land" was going to win Best Picture as well. And if you ask me, "Parasite" is in a far better position to win than "Moonlight" was a few years ago.

There are knocks against both films no matter how you think this will go. No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. "1917" would become the first film to win Best Picture since "Braveheart" without a single SAG nomination. It would also only be the tenth film to win without a Best Film Editing nomination.

Something to keep in mind is how the win tally looks when you're done making your predictions and what makes the most sense on paper. I currently have "Parasite" winning Best International Feature, Best Film Editing and Best Original Screenplay. I also currently have "1917" winning Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing.

I'm not sure about all of you but just based on how the preferential ballot has gone in recent years, I think "1917" looks a lot like "Gravity" while "Parasite" is looking like "12 Years A Slave," "Moonlight" and "Spotlight." All of them had to fight hard to win that Best Picture prize and they did so based on passion and heart. The standing ovation which "Parasite" received at SAG (the largest voting block of the Academy is actors) was a sign of the passionate support this film has. But if that passion is strong, why wasn't it able to win at PGA? My feeling is that the two thousand or so producers who voted are threatened by a film coming from outside the Hollywood studio system to take their industry's highest honor. That may feel like an archaic way of thinking but one must remember the demographic type we're dealing with here. The Academy itself is much larger and diversified. I believe that "Roma's" near Best Picture win last year may have paved the way for "Parasite" to finish what "Roma" could not last year. It's already well established that audiences both mainstream and within the industry enjoy "Parasite" more than they did "Roma," plus "Parasite" feels like more of an underdog film to root for versus "Roma" which had considerable (some would say intimidating) support from Netflix last year. The question becomes will enough people rank it high on their ballot regardless of the fact that there is another designated Oscar category already waiting for "Parasite" with its name engraved on it?

My head says "1917." It came out at the right time. It made a lot of money at the box office. It's a stunning technical achievement which leaves an impression on you when you leave the theater. But then there's "Parasite." A film that no one hates and is already regarded as one of the best films of the 2010s. "Parasite" may resonate stronger on a thematic level for Oscar voters with its ties to many social issues of today, while "1917" may feel like the status quo of same old, same old when it comes to the Academy and the types of films they tend to reward. I personally love both films and would be happy with either one as a Best Picture winner. However, I can't help but follow my heart towards "Parasite" and its chance to make history, its chance to kick down doors, its chance to be revered as one of the best Best Picture winners of all time. Isn't that what we're all about? Finding the Next Best Picture? Well, it's here. It's been here since it won the Palme d'Or at Cannes earlier last year. Now the question is, will enough Academy voters be able to look past the 1-inch-tall barrier of subtitles and see that a masterpiece is staring at them in the face? The stats and the cynic in me says no. But my heart and my desire for a hopeful bright future says yes.

PREDICTED WINNER: "Parasite"
RUNNER-UP: "1917"
PREFERRED WINNER: "Parasite"

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS RECAP
Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Sam Mendes - ​1917
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger - Judy
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Film Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: I’m Gonna Love Me Again - Rocketman
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Visual Effects: 1917
Best Animated Feature: Klaus
Best Documentary Feature: For Sama
Best International Feature Film: Parasite
Best Animated Short: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)
Best Live Action Short: The Neighbors’ Window

What do you all think of my final Oscar predictions? Be sure to let me know in the comments section below or on my Twitter account. Thank you all for an amazing season!

​You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture