By Matt Neglia
Are you ready? It's that wonderful and fascinating time here at Next Best Picture, starting today with the National Board Of Review and continuing into the week with the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA). Last year, "La La Land," "Moonlight" and "Manchester By The Sea" were solidified with their wins here and they all went on to great success at last year's Oscars. What will be the big winners this time that will emerge as early awards season favorites as we enter Phase Two of the race (The critics awards). Click below to see our thoughts and enter into our contest with your own predictions (Yes, there is a prize).
Let's start with the NYFCC first and see how well they usually align with Best Picture/Best Director...
2016 Best Picture: La La Land (NYFCC), Moonlight (Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (NYFCC), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Carol (NYFCC), Spotlight (Oscar) Best Director: Todd Haynes (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (NYFCC), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: American Hustle (NYFCC), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Steve McQueen (NYFCC), Alfonso Cuaron (Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Artist (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (NYFCC & Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (NYFCC), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: David Fincher (NYFCC), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) 2009 Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC & Oscar) 2008 Best Picture: Milk (NYFCC), Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar) Best Director: Mike Leigh (NYFCC), Danny Boyle (Oscar) 2007 Best Picture: No Country For Old Men (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: The Coen Bros. (NYFCC & Oscar) So we can see that in the last 10 years the NYFCC has correctly matched with the Oscars in Director three times while for Best Picture they have matched up three times (And they also happened to all be in the same years). So this year, I think it's fair to predict a split where Picture will go to one film and Director to another and only one of them will match up with Oscar. The LAFCA is even more wild and inconsistent but they do give us the benefit of knowing their runner ups which can help provide more context. 2016 Best Picture: Moonlight (Runner Up: La La Land) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (Runner Up: Damien Chazelle) (LAFCA), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Spotlight (Runner Up: Mad Max: Fury Road) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: George Miller (Runner Up: Todd Haynes) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (Runner Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel) (LAFCA), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (Runner Up: Wes Anderson) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: Gravity & Her (TIE) (LAFCA), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Runner Up: Spike Jonze) (LAFCA & Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Amour (Runner Up: The Master) (LAFCA), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Runner Up: Kathryn Bigelow) (LAFCA), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Descendants (Runner Up: The Tree Of Life) (LAFCA), The Artist (Oscar) Best Director: Terrence Malick (Runner Up: Martin Scorsese) (LAFCA), Michel Hazanavicius (Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (Runner Up: Carlos) (LAFCA), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: Oliver Assayas & David Fincher (TIE), Tom Hooper (Oscar) So as you can see, LAFCA rarely matches with Oscars. Only "Spotlight" & "Moonlight" for Best Picture (At least they're on a two year win streak!) and Alfonso Cuaron for directing "Gravity" are the only three that have matched this decade. Where NYFCC are likely to go with the Oscar favorites that have a lot of critical support in the acting categories, LAFCA has a tendency to throw all of that to the wind by rewarding whoever they damn well please. So what does this all mean? Last year's NYFCC winners can be seen here while the full list of winners can be found on their website here. Same for LAFCA winners last year and all of the other years. My advice when making your own predictions is to look at previous years, find trends and pick accordingly. MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR BOTH AWARDS GROUPS. WHOEVER GETS THE MOST RIGHT WINS (YES, THERE IS A PRIZE!) IF THERE IS A TIE, THE WINNER WILL BE CHOSEN RANDOMLY. VOTING ENDS ON NOVEMBER 28TH AT 11:59pm
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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BEST PICTURE Get Out (15) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, BOFCA, BRA, KCFCC, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PFFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, WAFCA Lady Bird (10) - CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCC The Shape Of Water (9) - AWFJ, CC, DFWFCA, LAOFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, PGA, StLFCA Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (8) - AACTA, BAFTA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, SAG The Florida Project (4) - DFCSA, NYFCO, SFFCC, TFCA Call Me By Your Name (3) - GALECA, IFP, LAFCA Dunkirk (2) - DFCC, FFCC Mudbound (2) - BFCC, NYFCO The Post (2) - NBR, NTFCA Detroit - NAACP A Ghost Story - UFCA Girls Trip - NAACP Logan - CIFCC Phantom Thread - BSFC BEST DIRECTOR Guillermo del Toro (18) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, DGA, GG, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, StLFCA Greta Gerwig (10) - COFCA, GALECA, GFCA,HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, NBR, NSFC, SDFCS, TFCA Christopher Nolan (10) - AACTA, AFCC, DFCC, CFCA, FFCC, OFCS, PCC, SFCS, UFCA, WAFCA Jordan Peele (10) - AAFCA, BFCC, BRA, CIFCC, IFP, NAACP, NCFCA, OFCC, PFCC, SPIRIT Sean Baker (3) - DFCSA, LFCC, NYFCC Paul Thomas Anderson (3) - BOFCA, BSFC, VFCC Luca Guadagnino - LAFCA Dee Rees - NYFCO BEST ACTOR Gary Oldman (23) - AACTA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, CC, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SAG, SFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Timothee Chalamet (12) - AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, FFCC, GALECA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, NYFCC, PCC, SPIRIT Daniel Kaluuya (8) - AAFCA, BRA, BSFC, CIFCC, GFCA, LVFCS, NAACP, NSFC James Franco (7) - CC, DFCC, DFCSA, GG, HFCS, IFP, NFCS Daniel Day-Lewis (4) - PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC Andy Serkis (2) - SFFCC, UFCA Harry Dean Stanton - IFJA Tom Hanks - NBR James McAvoy - SDFCS BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand (21) - AAFCA, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NTFCA, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Sally Hawkins (19) - AFCC, BSFC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GALECA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, UFCA Saoirse Ronan (9) - CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, GG, IFJA, IFP, NYFCC, SFCS, VFCC Margot Robbie (5) - AACTA, CC, FFCC, NYFCO, SFFCC Natalie Paul - BRA Meryl Streep - NBR Octavia Spencer - NAACP BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe (25) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCSA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, SFCS, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC Sam Rockwell (19) - AACTA, BAFTA, CC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SFCA, SPIRIT, WAFCA Michael Stuhlbarg (2) - GALECA, LAOFCS Idris Elba - NAACP Laurence Fishburne - AAFCA Hugh Grant - LFCC Woody Harrelson - PFCC Richard Jenkins - StLFCA Jason Mitchell - BRA Patrick Stewart - LAOFCS BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laurie Metcalf (28) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Allison Janney (19) - AACTA, AFCA, BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, DFCSA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, LAOFCS, NFCS, NYFCO, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SAG, SDFCS, SPIRIT Tiffany Haddish (4) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP, NYFCC Mary J. Blige - BFCC Lesley Manville - LFCC Tatiana Maslany - UFCA BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Get Out (34) - AAFCA, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, BRA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, IFP, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, NAACP, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WGA Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (9) - AACTA, BAFTA, DFCSA, GG, LFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, PCC, PFCS Lady Bird (8) - BSFC, DFWFCA, HFCS, IFJA, NSFC, PCC, SFCS, SPIRIT Phantom Thread (2) - NBR, NYFCC The Shape Of Water - StLFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Call Me By Your Name (15) - AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, CC, CFCA, FFCC, KCFCC, LVFCS, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, SFCA, SFFCC, USC, WGA The Disaster Artist (8) - CIFCC, GFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, StLFCA Mudbound (3) - BFCC, COFCA, WAFCA Logan (2) - IFJA, KCFCC Molly's Game (2) - LAOFCS, NCFCA Blade Runner 2049 - UFCA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Coco (38) - AFCA, AFCC, AAFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA The Breadwinner (2) - LAFCA, TFCA The LEGO Batman Movie - DFCSA Loving Vincent - AWFJ My Life As A Zucchini - SDFCS BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Blade Runner 2049 (28) - AFCA, ASC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCC, FFCC, HFCS, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Dunkirk (5) - AFCA, BSFC, GFCA, SDFCS, SFCA The Shape Of Water (3) - DFWFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO Call Me By Your Man - SPIRIT Mudbound - NYFCC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Phantom Thread (6) - BAFTA, CC, CIFCC, OSCAR, SDFCS, SFCS Beauty And The Beast (2) - PFCS, SDFCS Blade Runner 2049 - LVFCS I, Tonya - CDG The Shape Of Water - CDG Wonder Woman - CDG BEST FILM EDITING Baby Driver (11) - BAFTA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Dunkirk (9) - ACE, AWFJ, BOFCA, CC, LAFCA, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCS I, Tonya (2) - ACE, SPIRIT Coco - ACE A Ghost Story - BSFC Jane - ACE BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Darkest Hour (4) - BAFTA, CC, MHG, OSCAR Phantom Thread - CIFCC BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Blade Runner 2049 (9) - ADG, CFCA, CIFCC, GFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, LVFCS, SFCS, WAFCA The Shape Of Water (9) - ADG, BAFTA, CC, NFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, SDFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA Coco - ADG Logan - ADG BEST SOUND MIXING Dunkirk (3) - BAFTA, CAS, OSCAR BEST SOUND EDITING Dunkirk (2) - BAFTA, OSCAR Blade Runner 2049 - MPSE BEST VISUAL EFFECTS War For The Planet Of The Apes (8) - CC, CIFCC, LAOFCS, NCFCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, VES Blade Runner 2049 (7) - BAFTA, FFCC, HFCS, LVFCS, NFCS, OSCAR, StLFCA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Shape Of Water (14) - AFCA, BAFTA, BOFCA, CC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GG, HFCS, IFJA, LAOFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, UFCA Phantom Thread (9) - BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, LAFCA, PCC, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA Blade Runner 2049 (2) - FFCC, WAFCA Coco - PFCC Dunkirk - GFCA Get Out - BRA BEST ORIGINAL SONG Coco (6) - CC, GFCA, HFCS, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS Detroit - AAFCA The Greatest Showman - GG Mudbound - BRA BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM BPM (Beats Per Minute) (10) - AFCC, COFCA, FFCC, GALECA, LAFCA, NYFCC, OFCS, SFFCC, VFCC, WAFCA The Square (8) - AWFJ, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, LAOFCS, OFCC, TFCA First They Killed My Father (4) - BOFCA, LVFCS, PFCS, SFCA In The Fade (4) - CC, GG, KCFCC, NYFCO Raw (4) - CIFCC, NTFCA, PCC, SFCS A Fantastic Woman (3) - BFCC, OSCAR, SPIRIT Thelma (3) - HFCS, SDFCS, UFCA Graduation (2) - PFCC, NSFC Okja (2) - AFCA, NCFCA The Wound (2) - AAFCA, BRA Faces Places - IFJA Foxtrot - NBR Loveless - LAFCA BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Jane (17) - AFCC, CFCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAOFCS, LVFCS, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, PFCC, SDFCS, SFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Faces Places (14) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, GALECA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, SFCS, SFFCC, SPIRIT, TFCA City Of Ghosts (3) - DFWFCA, PCC, PFCS Step (3) - AAFCA, BRA, NAACP Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond (2) - DFCSA, LAOFCS Kedi (2) - AFCC, NCFCA Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story - NYFCO Dawson City: Frozen Time - BSFC Ex Libris: The New York Public Library - VFCC The Farthest - DFCC Icarus - OSCAR Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992 - IFJA Oklahoma City - OFCC Strong Island - IFP AuthorsMatt Neglia Archives
May 2018
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