By Matt Neglia
Are you ready? It's that wonderful and fascinating time here at Next Best Picture, starting today with the National Board Of Review and continuing into the week with the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA). Last year, "La La Land," "Moonlight" and "Manchester By The Sea" were solidified with their wins here and they all went on to great success at last year's Oscars. What will be the big winners this time that will emerge as early awards season favorites as we enter Phase Two of the race (The critics awards). Click below to see our thoughts and enter into our contest with your own predictions (Yes, there is a prize).
Let's start with the NYFCC first and see how well they usually align with Best Picture/Best Director...
2016 Best Picture: La La Land (NYFCC), Moonlight (Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (NYFCC), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Carol (NYFCC), Spotlight (Oscar) Best Director: Todd Haynes (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (NYFCC), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: American Hustle (NYFCC), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Steve McQueen (NYFCC), Alfonso Cuaron (Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Artist (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (NYFCC & Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (NYFCC), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: David Fincher (NYFCC), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) 2009 Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC & Oscar) 2008 Best Picture: Milk (NYFCC), Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar) Best Director: Mike Leigh (NYFCC), Danny Boyle (Oscar) 2007 Best Picture: No Country For Old Men (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: The Coen Bros. (NYFCC & Oscar) So we can see that in the last 10 years the NYFCC has correctly matched with the Oscars in Director three times while for Best Picture they have matched up three times (And they also happened to all be in the same years). So this year, I think it's fair to predict a split where Picture will go to one film and Director to another and only one of them will match up with Oscar. The LAFCA is even more wild and inconsistent but they do give us the benefit of knowing their runner ups which can help provide more context. 2016 Best Picture: Moonlight (Runner Up: La La Land) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (Runner Up: Damien Chazelle) (LAFCA), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Spotlight (Runner Up: Mad Max: Fury Road) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: George Miller (Runner Up: Todd Haynes) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (Runner Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel) (LAFCA), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (Runner Up: Wes Anderson) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: Gravity & Her (TIE) (LAFCA), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Runner Up: Spike Jonze) (LAFCA & Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Amour (Runner Up: The Master) (LAFCA), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Runner Up: Kathryn Bigelow) (LAFCA), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Descendants (Runner Up: The Tree Of Life) (LAFCA), The Artist (Oscar) Best Director: Terrence Malick (Runner Up: Martin Scorsese) (LAFCA), Michel Hazanavicius (Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (Runner Up: Carlos) (LAFCA), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: Oliver Assayas & David Fincher (TIE), Tom Hooper (Oscar) So as you can see, LAFCA rarely matches with Oscars. Only "Spotlight" & "Moonlight" for Best Picture (At least they're on a two year win streak!) and Alfonso Cuaron for directing "Gravity" are the only three that have matched this decade. Where NYFCC are likely to go with the Oscar favorites that have a lot of critical support in the acting categories, LAFCA has a tendency to throw all of that to the wind by rewarding whoever they damn well please. So what does this all mean? Last year's NYFCC winners can be seen here while the full list of winners can be found on their website here. Same for LAFCA winners last year and all of the other years. My advice when making your own predictions is to look at previous years, find trends and pick accordingly. MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR BOTH AWARDS GROUPS. WHOEVER GETS THE MOST RIGHT WINS (YES, THERE IS A PRIZE!) IF THERE IS A TIE, THE WINNER WILL BE CHOSEN RANDOMLY. VOTING ENDS ON NOVEMBER 28TH AT 11:59pm
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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(10) - AARP, AWFJ, BSFC, FFCC, IPA, LAFCA, PFCS, SPIRIT, WAFCA, WGA If Beale Street Could Talk (10) - AFCA, BFCC, CC, CFCA, GWNYFCA, LEJA, NBR, NCFCA, OAFFC, OFCS The Hate U Give (3) - IFJA, LAOFCS, PFCC The Death Of Stalin (2) - NSFC, SDFCS Leave No Trace (2) - LVFCS, USC Black Panther - NFCS Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse - UFCA BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Favourite (19) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BIFA, DFWFCA, GALECA, HFCS, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, PCC, SEFCA, SFCS, TFCA, WAFCA First Reformed (12) - BOFCA, CC, CFCA, IFJA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC, OFCC, OFCS, SFFCC, TFCA, VFCS Eighth Grade (7) - CIFCC, COFCA, GFCA, SDFCS, SPIRIT, UFCA, WGA Sorry To Bother You (5) - AFCA, BFCC, FFCC, GWNYFCA, MCFCA Green Book (4) - DFCS, GG, OSCAR, PFCS Vice (3) - DFCS, LAOFCS, StLFCA A Quiet Place (2) - DFCS, LVFCS Roma (2) - IPA, LEJA Cold War - EFA BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Roma (37) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NSFC, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, OSCAR, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Cold War (2) - ASC, FFCC The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs - SDFCS The Favourite - BIFA First Man - DFCC U-July 22 - EFA The Rider - SDFCS Suspiria - SPIRIT A Star Is Born - IPA BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Favourite (7) - BAFTA, BIFA, CDG, IPA, LVFCS, PFCS, SDFCS Black Panther (6) - CC, CDG, CIFCC, LEJA, OSCAR, SFCS Crazy Rich Asians - CDG Dogman - EFA BEST FILM EDITING Roma (7) - AWFJ, CFCA, CIFCC, IPA, LEJA, LVFCS, PFCS First Man (4) - AFCA, BSFC, CC, WAFCA Bohemian Rhapsody (2) - ACE, OSCAR Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2) - OFCS, SFCS Vice (2) - BAFTA, StLFCA Widows (2) - COFCA, MCFCA You Were Never Really Here (2) - BOFCA, SPIRIT American Animals - BIFA Cold War - EFA The Favourite - ACE Game Night - SDFCS If Beale Street Could Talk - GWNYFCA Minding The Gap - LAFCA The Other Side Of The Wind - SFFCC Searching - LAOFCS BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Vice (3) - CC, MUAHS, OSCAR The Favourite (2) - BAFTA, BIFA Black Panther - LEJA Crazy Rich Asians - MUAHS Dogman - EFA Mary Queen of Scots - MUAHS A Star Is Born -MUAHS BEST ORIGINAL SCORE If Beale Street Could Talk (13) - BSFC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, HFCS, IFCA, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LEJA, NYFCO, OFCS, PCC, WAFCA First Man (7) - AFCC, CC, FFCC, GFCA, GG, IPA, PFCS Black Panther (4) - DFCS, HMMA, MCFCA, OSCAR BlacKkKlansman (2) - SFFCC, StLFCA Isle Of Dogs (2) - DFWFCA, HMMA Mandy (2) - AFCA, SFCS Suspiria (2) - IFJA, LVFCS You Were Never Really Here (2) - BIFA, BOFCA Annihilation - UFCA Mary Queen Of Scots - HMMA BEST ORIGINAL SONG A Star Is Born (14) - CC, DFCS, GFCA, GG, HFCS, HMMA, IFCA, IPA, LAOFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, OSCAR, PFCS Black Panther (2) - AAFCA, HMMA RBG - HMMA Sherlock Gnomes - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Favourite (11) - ADG, BAFTA, BIFA, CFCA, CIFCC, FFCC, GFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS Black Panther (8) - ADG, CC, LAFCA, MCFCA, OSCAR, SFFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Crazy Rich Asians - ADG Isle Of Dogs - LVFCS Mary Poppins Returns - IPA Roma - LEJA The Summer - EFA BEST SOUND MIXING Bohemian Rhapsody (3) - BAFTA, CAS, OSCAR The Captain - EFA First Man - MCFCA A Quiet Place - IPA Roma - LEJA You Were Never Really Here - BIFA BEST SOUND EDITING A Quiet Place (2) - IPA, MPSE Bohemian Rhapsody - OSCAR BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Black Panther (6) - BAFTA, CC, IPA, LEJA, NCFCA, PFCS Avengers: Infinity War (5) - DFCS, LAOFCS, NFCS, StLFCA, VES First Man (4) - CIFCC, HFCS, OSCAR, VES Ready Player One (2) - LVFCS, SDFCS Annihilation - FFCC Border - EFA Early Man - BIFA Mission: Impossible - Fallout - SFCS BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (33) - AFCA, AAFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LAOFCS, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PGA, SFCS, SFFCC, StLFCA, UFCA Isle Of Dogs (13) - BSFC, DFWFCA, HFCS, IPA, LVFCS, NFCS, NTFCA, OAFFC, PFCS, SEFCA, SDFCS, TFCA, WAFCA Incredibles 2 (3) - IFCA, NBR, PFCC Mirai - FFCC BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Roma (41) - AAFCA, AARP, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BOFCA, CC, CFCA, CIFCC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LAOFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, SFFCC, SPIRIT, StLFCA, UFCA, VFCS, WAFCA Shoplifters (5) - BSFC, COFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, SDFCS Burning (4) - AFCA, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, TFCA Cold War (4) - LFCC, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Won't You Be My Neighbor? (37) - AARP, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LAOFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFFCC, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Minding The Gap (8) - CFCA, CIFCC, GWNYFCA, IDA, IPA, NSFC, NYFCC, VFCS Free Solo (3) - BAFTA, OSCAR, SFCS Shirkers (3) - COFCA, FFCC, LAFCA Three Identical Strangers - (3) DFCC, DFCS, SDFCS Quincy (2) - AAFCA, BFCC Bergman - A Year In A Life - EFA Hale County This Morning, This Evening - IFP RBG - NBR AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
April 2019
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