By Matt Neglia
Are you ready? It's that wonderful and fascinating time here at Next Best Picture, starting today with the National Board Of Review and continuing into the week with the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA). Last year, "La La Land," "Moonlight" and "Manchester By The Sea" were solidified with their wins here and they all went on to great success at last year's Oscars. What will be the big winners this time that will emerge as early awards season favorites as we enter Phase Two of the race (The critics awards). Click below to see our thoughts and enter into our contest with your own predictions (Yes, there is a prize).
Let's start with the NYFCC first and see how well they usually align with Best Picture/Best Director...
2016 Best Picture: La La Land (NYFCC), Moonlight (Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (NYFCC), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Carol (NYFCC), Spotlight (Oscar) Best Director: Todd Haynes (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (NYFCC), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: American Hustle (NYFCC), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Steve McQueen (NYFCC), Alfonso Cuaron (Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Artist (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (NYFCC & Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (NYFCC), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: David Fincher (NYFCC), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) 2009 Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC & Oscar) 2008 Best Picture: Milk (NYFCC), Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar) Best Director: Mike Leigh (NYFCC), Danny Boyle (Oscar) 2007 Best Picture: No Country For Old Men (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: The Coen Bros. (NYFCC & Oscar) So we can see that in the last 10 years the NYFCC has correctly matched with the Oscars in Director three times while for Best Picture they have matched up three times (And they also happened to all be in the same years). So this year, I think it's fair to predict a split where Picture will go to one film and Director to another and only one of them will match up with Oscar. The LAFCA is even more wild and inconsistent but they do give us the benefit of knowing their runner ups which can help provide more context. 2016 Best Picture: Moonlight (Runner Up: La La Land) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (Runner Up: Damien Chazelle) (LAFCA), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Spotlight (Runner Up: Mad Max: Fury Road) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: George Miller (Runner Up: Todd Haynes) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (Runner Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel) (LAFCA), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (Runner Up: Wes Anderson) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: Gravity & Her (TIE) (LAFCA), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Runner Up: Spike Jonze) (LAFCA & Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Amour (Runner Up: The Master) (LAFCA), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Runner Up: Kathryn Bigelow) (LAFCA), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Descendants (Runner Up: The Tree Of Life) (LAFCA), The Artist (Oscar) Best Director: Terrence Malick (Runner Up: Martin Scorsese) (LAFCA), Michel Hazanavicius (Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (Runner Up: Carlos) (LAFCA), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: Oliver Assayas & David Fincher (TIE), Tom Hooper (Oscar) So as you can see, LAFCA rarely matches with Oscars. Only "Spotlight" & "Moonlight" for Best Picture (At least they're on a two year win streak!) and Alfonso Cuaron for directing "Gravity" are the only three that have matched this decade. Where NYFCC are likely to go with the Oscar favorites that have a lot of critical support in the acting categories, LAFCA has a tendency to throw all of that to the wind by rewarding whoever they damn well please. So what does this all mean? Last year's NYFCC winners can be seen here while the full list of winners can be found on their website here. Same for LAFCA winners last year and all of the other years. My advice when making your own predictions is to look at previous years, find trends and pick accordingly. MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR BOTH AWARDS GROUPS. WHOEVER GETS THE MOST RIGHT WINS (YES, THERE IS A PRIZE!) IF THERE IS A TIE, THE WINNER WILL BE CHOSEN RANDOMLY. VOTING ENDS ON NOVEMBER 28TH AT 11:59pm
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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January 2019
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