By Matt Neglia
Are you ready? It's that wonderful and fascinating time here at Next Best Picture, starting today with the National Board Of Review and continuing into the week with the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA). Last year, "La La Land," "Moonlight" and "Manchester By The Sea" were solidified with their wins here and they all went on to great success at last year's Oscars. What will be the big winners this time that will emerge as early awards season favorites as we enter Phase Two of the race (The critics awards). Click below to see our thoughts and enter into our contest with your own predictions (Yes, there is a prize).
Let's start with the NYFCC first and see how well they usually align with Best Picture/Best Director...
2016 Best Picture: La La Land (NYFCC), Moonlight (Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (NYFCC), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Carol (NYFCC), Spotlight (Oscar) Best Director: Todd Haynes (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (NYFCC), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (NYFCC), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: American Hustle (NYFCC), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Steve McQueen (NYFCC), Alfonso Cuaron (Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty (NYFCC), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Artist (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (NYFCC & Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (NYFCC), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: David Fincher (NYFCC), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) 2009 Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (NYFCC & Oscar) 2008 Best Picture: Milk (NYFCC), Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar) Best Director: Mike Leigh (NYFCC), Danny Boyle (Oscar) 2007 Best Picture: No Country For Old Men (NYFCC & Oscar) Best Director: The Coen Bros. (NYFCC & Oscar) So we can see that in the last 10 years the NYFCC has correctly matched with the Oscars in Director three times while for Best Picture they have matched up three times (And they also happened to all be in the same years). So this year, I think it's fair to predict a split where Picture will go to one film and Director to another and only one of them will match up with Oscar. The LAFCA is even more wild and inconsistent but they do give us the benefit of knowing their runner ups which can help provide more context. 2016 Best Picture: Moonlight (Runner Up: La La Land) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: Barry Jenkins (Runner Up: Damien Chazelle) (LAFCA), Damien Chazelle (Oscar) 2015 Best Picture: Spotlight (Runner Up: Mad Max: Fury Road) (LAFCA & Oscar) Best Director: George Miller (Runner Up: Todd Haynes) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2014 Best Picture: Boyhood (Runner Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel) (LAFCA), Birdman (Oscar) Best Director: Richard Linklater (Runner Up: Wes Anderson) (LAFCA), Alejandro G. Inarritu (Oscar) 2013 Best Picture: Gravity & Her (TIE) (LAFCA), 12 Years A Slave (Oscar) Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Runner Up: Spike Jonze) (LAFCA & Oscar) 2012 Best Picture: Amour (Runner Up: The Master) (LAFCA), Argo (Oscar) Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Runner Up: Kathryn Bigelow) (LAFCA), Ang Lee (Oscar) 2011 Best Picture: The Descendants (Runner Up: The Tree Of Life) (LAFCA), The Artist (Oscar) Best Director: Terrence Malick (Runner Up: Martin Scorsese) (LAFCA), Michel Hazanavicius (Oscar) 2010 Best Picture: The Social Network (Runner Up: Carlos) (LAFCA), The King's Speech (Oscar) Best Director: Oliver Assayas & David Fincher (TIE), Tom Hooper (Oscar) So as you can see, LAFCA rarely matches with Oscars. Only "Spotlight" & "Moonlight" for Best Picture (At least they're on a two year win streak!) and Alfonso Cuaron for directing "Gravity" are the only three that have matched this decade. Where NYFCC are likely to go with the Oscar favorites that have a lot of critical support in the acting categories, LAFCA has a tendency to throw all of that to the wind by rewarding whoever they damn well please. So what does this all mean? Last year's NYFCC winners can be seen here while the full list of winners can be found on their website here. Same for LAFCA winners last year and all of the other years. My advice when making your own predictions is to look at previous years, find trends and pick accordingly. MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR BOTH AWARDS GROUPS. WHOEVER GETS THE MOST RIGHT WINS (YES, THERE IS A PRIZE!) IF THERE IS A TIE, THE WINNER WILL BE CHOSEN RANDOMLY. VOTING ENDS ON NOVEMBER 28TH AT 11:59pm
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
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Simmons - DFCS BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Power Of The Dog (33) - AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Drive My Car (11) - AFCA, BSFC, CANNES, ICS, IFJA, IFSC, LAFCA, LFCC, NSFC, SFCS, TFCA CODA (7) - BAFTA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, OSCAR, UFCA, WGA The Lost Daughter (4) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT, USC, VENICE West Side Story (2) - AARP, KCFCC Nightmare Alley - NFCS Passing - BRA The Tragedy Of Macbeth - NBR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Licorice Pizza (12) - AFCC, BAFTA, CFCA, COFCA, GFCA, KCFCC, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, OFCC, PCC, SEFCA Belfast (9) - AWFJ, CCA, GG, HFCS, IPA, LVFCS, OSCAR, PFCS, WAFCA Mass (6) - CACF, HCA, IFJA, OFTA, SDFCS, StLFCA Pig (5) - AFCA, CIC, DFCS, OAFFC, OFCS Don't Look Up (4) - AAFCA, DFCS, VFCC, WGA C'mon C'mon (2) - LEJA, SFBAFCC Being The Ricardos - AACTA Benediction - ICS The French Dispatch - FFCC A Hero - NBR Judas And The Black Messiah - NAACP King Richard - BFCC The Mitchells vs. The Machines - UFCA The Worst Person In The World - IFSC BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Dune (22) - ASC, BAFTA, BFCC, CACF, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, LEJA, MFCA, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, WAFCA The Power Of The Dog (15) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSC, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, FFCC, LAFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OFCS, StLFCA The Tragedy Of Macbeth (7) - BRA, COFCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, NBR, PCC, SFBAFCC The Green Knight (6) - AFCA, CIC, GWNYFCA, NSFC, SFCS, UFCA Nightmare Alley (2) - NFCS, PFCC West Side Story (2) - LVFCS, NYFCC Benediction - ICS Boiling Point - BIFA Great Freedom - EFA Passing - SPIRIT Spencer - IFSC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Cruella (12) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, IFSC, LEJA, LVFCS, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, SDFCS, StLFCA Dune (5) - MFCA, NCFCA, OFCS, PCA, PFCS Ammonite - EFA Cyrano - IPA The Green Knight - SFCS The Harder They Fall - BRA House Of Gucci - HFCS Spencer - CFCA The Souvenir Part II - BIFA BEST FILM EDITING Dune (8) - AFCA, BOFCA, IPA, MFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PFCS, SFCS The Power Of The Dog (6) - AWFJ, GWNYFCA, LEJA, NDFS, OFCS, SFBAFCC West Side Story (5) - CCA, CIC, COFCA, LVFCS, UFCA Last Night In Soho (4) - HCA, HFCS, MCFCA, StLFCA The French Dispatch (2) - CFCA, NCFCA Tick, Tick...Boom! (2) - ACE, WAFCA The Harder They Fall - BRA In The Heights - SDFCS King Richard - ACE No Time To Die - BAFTA The Souvenir Part II - BIFA Summer Of Soul - LAFCA Titane - IFSC Unclenching The Fists - EFA The Velvet Underground - BSFC What Do We See When We Look At The Sky? - ICS Zola - SPIRIT BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Eyes Of Tammy Faye (7) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR Cruella (5) - HFCS, IFSC, LEJA, MUAHS, NCFCA Being The Ricardos - MUAHS Coming 2 America - MUAHS The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain - BIFA Dune - MFCA Titane - EFA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Dune (23) - AFCC, BAFTA, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HCA, HMMA, IPA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA The Power Of The Dog (14) - AFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, NDFS, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SFBAFCC, UFCA Spencer (4) - BSFC, GWNYFCA, LVFCS, MFCA Parallel Mothers (3) - HMMA, IFSC, LAFCA Encanto (2) - LEJA, SCL The Harder They Fall (2) - BRA, HFCS The Addams Family 2 - HMMA Ali & Ava - BIFA Annette - ICS C'mon C'mon - HMMA Don't Look Up - HMMA Great Freedom - EFA The Green Knight - SCL Julia - HMMA A Quiet Place: Part II - HMMA BEST ORIGINAL SONG No Time To Die (18) - CACF, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GFCA, GG, HFCS, HFCS, HMMA, IFSC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PFCS, SCL Encanto (3) - GMS, IPA, LEJA Bruised - BRA CODA - HMMA Don't Look Up - SCL The Harder They Fall - IFCA King Richard - HCA PAW Patrol: The Movie - HMMA Rebel Hearts - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Dune (14) - ADG, BAFTA, CCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDSA, WAFCA Nightmare Alley (8) - ADG, CIC, HCA, MFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFBAFCC The French Dispatch (6) - CFCA, IFSC, NDFS, OFCS, SDSA, StLFCA No Time To Die (2) - ADG, SDSA The Souvenir Part II (2) - BIFA, ICS The Tragedy Of Macbeth (2) - BRA, IPA Barb And Star Go To Vista Del Mar - LAFCA Being The Ricardos - SDSA The Green Knight - SFCS Natural Light - EFA West Side Story - LVFCS BEST SOUND Dune (13) - BAFTA, CAS, IFSC, LEJA, MCFCA, MFCA, MPSE, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDFCS Boiling Point - BIFA The Innocents - EFA Last Night In Soho - HFCS Memoria - ICS Tick, Tick...Boom! - IPA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Dune (25) - BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, HCA, HFCS, IFSC, IPA, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, VES Spider-Man: No Way Home (2) - CIC, HFCS Dashcam - BIFA Lamb - EFA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Mitchells vs. The Machines (33) - AFCA, AFCC, ANNIE, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, KCFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA Encanto (13) - AWFJ, BAFTA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, IFCA, IPA, LEJA, MFCA, NAACP, NBR, NDFS, OSCAR Flee (12) - BSFC, CFCA, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, IFJA, IFSC, LAFCA, PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA The Crossing - ICS Luca - SDFCS Raya And The Last Dragon - NTFCA BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Drive My Car (34) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, IFSC, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCC, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (4) - BIFA, LVFCS, NDFS, UFCA The Hand Of God (4) - BFCC, FFCC, HFCS, PFCS The Worst Person In The World (4) - BOFCA, NYFCC, PCA, VFCC Parallel Mothers (3) - CIC, LEJA, SDFCS A Hero (2) - CACF, NBR African America - BRA Lamb - NTFCA Petite Maman - LAFCA Sheep Without A Shepherd - AARP Titane - PFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Summer Of Soul (45) - AAFCA, AARP, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BRA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (20) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CACF, CEH, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, GOTHAM, IDA, IFSC, LEJA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, StLFCA, VFCC Attica - DGA Barbara Lee: Speaking Truth to Power - NAACP The First Wave - UFCA Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck In Time - IFJA Mr. Bachmann And His Class - ICS Poly Styrene: I Am A Cliche - BIFA AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
June 2022
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