By Ryan C. Showers
If you have had the feeling that this year’s contest for Best Picture is a bit lackluster, you are not alone. This Best Picture race has led many of us to the same conclusion: Films that would be “on the bubble” to be nominated in other years will likely occupy allotted slots in the Oscar Best Picture lineup. A side effect of the financial hit the entertainment industry has endured due to the global pandemic is that this awards season cycle is less complete than past years. This has made it difficult to separate the race between feasible frontrunners, apathetic horses in the running for a nomination but not a win, and passion projects that are most fantasy than reality in an Academy Awards Best Picture competition. This has left many of us wondering what is to come in the race with no undeniable frontrunner to win thus far. Some may disagree with this characterization of the race, citing “The Trial of the Chicago 7” as having checked all of the boxes the Academy usually embraces in a Best Picture winner. And every day, here at Next Best Picture, we speculate how likely it is that Academy members fitting specific demographics may react in a resoundingly positive manner. Some have insisted “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is a real indomitable threat to be this year’s consensus film which will sizzle its way through the preferential ballot on the strength of its talented cast and social relevancy. The best asset working in its favor to win Best Picture is that it is mostly flying under the radar at the moment, while also slyly and gently making its presence known early on in the season last month. Personally, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” left something to be desired. I found much of it to be dull, one of the weakest scripts Aaron Sorkin has written for the screen, and evidence that he is not that type of filmmaker who can make a Best Picture winner at this point in his directorial efforts. The Oscar pundit counter to this take is that “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is a traditional film that members of the Academy will ultimately see as innocuous, and if it shows strength by winning the SAG ensemble award, a path to winning Best Picture will be effortless. There have been times when updating my Best Picture prediction ranking where I felt more insecure about other contenders and I begrudgingly moved “The Trial of the Chicago 7” back into the top spot – a nimble default choice. The most exciting aspect of this hypothetical Best Picture win: A historic moment for Netflix, whose efforts to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other cinematic powerhouse studios and distributors will have finally materialized after strong efforts with “Roma,” “The Irishman,” and “Marriage Story” in recent years. But “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is not the only film which could lead Netflix to its first Best Picture win in the 2020-2021 cycle. David Fincher’s return to filmmaking after six years in “Mank” is going to be a crucial contender this year. Despite being a black-and-white cinematic event about Orson Welles, “Citizen Kane,” and Old Hollywood, the skepticism most have about predicting it for Best Picture is that it is too much of a niche entity, and its greatness will be more appreciated by history buffs and cinephiles rather than the broad swath of the Academy. I have not written off “Mank” from winning Best Picture like many of my colleagues. The narrative against “Mank” is that “only ‘movie people’ will care about it.” This makes me ponder the following: “Do they know that the voters in the Academy are, quite literally, ‘movie people’ and most definitely have a paramount admiration for ‘Citizen Kane?’” Regardless, a potential lack of accessibility will not stop “Mank” from winning more Academy Awards than any other film at the next ceremony. “Mank” is the frontrunner for Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and Best Sound. Even if “Mank” fails to win Best Picture, it will still win more Oscars than any film since “La La Land.”
I would like to push back and offer a precedent to make sense of a possible “Mank” Best Picture win. In 2014, the wild and controversial “Birdman” halted the rise of “Boyhood” based on the strength of industry support through what many of us speculated was a visceral identification and connection to the plot and story about struggling artists and the storytelling industry. Despite “Birdman” having eccentric elements, it dominated the guild awards and went on to handily win Best Picture at the Oscars. It is possible “Mank” could follow a similar trajectory and connect with Academy members in its ode to Old Hollywood and the defining cinematic masterpiece of “Citizen Kane.” Some could see ignoring a film about the making of “Citizen Kane” to be cinematic blasphemy, especially since Fincher is on such a steady track of finally win Best Director after three decades of exemplary work.
Netflix could finally have its day in the sun with the Academy and win Best Picture for either “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or “Mank.” From where I stand, the only foil to this success for Netflix is Pixar’s “Soul.” It’s ironic considering Netflix’s greatest hurdle in gaining validation from the Academy was its industry-revolutionizing streaming concept, which is seen as a threat to the theatrical experience. Due to the pandemic, Pixar, a typical box office magnet, will release its latest film on Disney+ on Christmas Day. “Soul” has been received so far by critics as one of Pixar’s greatest achievements. Critics have raved about the aesthetic beauty in its animation, but they also say it tugs on the emotional strings of our hearts in quintessential Pixar fashion. In such a strange year for Best Picture where most of us are unsure where to commit ourselves in our predictions, “Soul” could make a play to win Best Picture. If this were to materialize, “Soul” would become the first animated feature to ever win the top prize at the Academy Awards. If you sound unconvinced of this, I cannot blame you. Only three films have ever been nominated for Best Picture: “Beauty and the Beast,” “Up,” and “Toy Story 3,” and the latter two made the cut in years of a mandated ten slots in Best Picture. Some have interpreted this as the Academy decidedly prioritizing against animated films for the top category, passing them off as “silly kids movies.” Maybe another way to explain this ten-year hiatus is that no animated film has earned the Academy’s respect as much as the literally perfect film in “Beauty and the Beast” and the emotional triumphs of “Up” and “Toy Story 3.” By virtue of this year’s relatively empty field, with so many major films being pushed from outside this year’s Oscar eligibility window due to COVID-19, and the risk of attending a theater poses to public health, “Soul” sliding into Best Picture for a nomination would be a big deal. If a Best Picture nomination for “Soul” were to transpire, it would be the first animated film memorialized in the category in ten years. Look ahead to the December holidays: There is a very likely chance everyone and their brother will tune into “Soul” as they celebrate and have time off. Pixar’s horse in the race has the advantage of being widely seen at home by most voters and even more members of the general public than even “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or “Mank.” Perhaps “Soul” reaches those heights of quality as past animated Best Picture nominees and would have been competitive for a nomination in this category during a normal year. And perhaps, in a rather otherwise melancholy year of 2020, “Soul” is exactly what will appeal to the widest faction of people within the Academy and it will succeed on a preferential ballot. Also, “Soul” may strike the precise cord for voters who still fear Netflix as a source of theatrical obsolesce – a theory many have used to understand the 2018 victory of “Green Book” over “Roma.” If ever there was an alternative to “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or “Mank,” neither of which fit unanimously as a Best Picture winner, it could be “Soul.” My advice to those not completely sold on the idea of “Soul” winning Best Picture? Your skepticism is justified, however, the opportunity of “Soul” is real, even if it is not the most likely course of action now. As a final note, for “Nomadland,” “One Night in Miami" and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” – though smaller productions than those explored thus far in this piece – there is a path. Or at the very least, a claim to fame for each of them in this race.
What do you make of the Best Picture race? What do you think will be nominated and what do you think will win? Let us know in the comments section down below or on our Twitter account and be sure to check out our latest Oscar predictions here. You can follow Ryan and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @rc818
Comments
|
BEST PICTURE Nomadland (37) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LEJA, LFCC, LVFCS, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, OFCS, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, TIFF, VENICE, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC Promising Young Woman (10) - AACTA, COFCA, HCA, KCFCC, MCFCA, NFCS, OAFFC, SCA, SDFCS, WFCC Minari (7) - AFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFTA, PCC, UFCA Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3) - BFCC, CIC, PFCC The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (3) - DFCS, HFCS, SAG Da 5 Bloods (2) - CIC, NBR First Cow (2) - FFCC, NYFCC Another Round - EFA Bad Boys For Life - NAACP Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS Judas And The Black Messiah - AAFCA Rocks - BIFA Small Axe - LAFCA The United States vs. Billie Holiday - AARP BEST DIRECTOR Chloé Zhao (48) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BFCC, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, DGA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, MSFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NTFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Regina King (3) - AAFCA, BFCC, UFCA Spike Lee (3) - CIC, HFCS, NBR Lee Isaac Chung - AFCA Emerald Fennell - NFCS Darius Marder - SCA Steve McQueen - LFCC Andrew Patterson - GOTHAM Gina Prince-Bythewood - NAACP Kelly Reichardt - ICS Aaron Sorkin - AARP Thomas Vinterberg - EFA Remi Weekes - BIFA BEST ACTRESS Carey Mulligan (26) - AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, CCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SCA, SDFCS, StLFCA, WFCC Frances McDormand (24) - AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, LFCC, LVFCS, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Viola Davis (5) - BFCC, CIC, NAACP, PFCC, SAG Andra Day (2) - AAFCA, GG Sidney Flanigan (2) - BSFC, NYFCC Maria Bakalova - IPA Paula Beer - EFA Nicole Beharie - GOTHAM Sophia Loren - AARP Rosamund Pike - GG Wunmi Mosaku - BIFA Isabel Sandoval - ICS BEST ACTOR Chadwick Boseman (26) - AACTA, AAFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, IFCA, LAFCA, LEJA, LFCC, MSFCA, NAACP, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC Riz Ahmed (21) - AFCA, AFCC, COFCA, GFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LVFCS, NBR, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Delroy Lindo (10) - BOFCA, DFCS, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, NCFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, PFCC Anthony Hopkins (5) - AARP, BIFA, BSFC, FFCC, NFCS Sacha Baron Cohen (2) - GG, IPA Mads Mikkelsen - EFA Aditya Modak - ICS Steven Yeun - NTFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Youn Yuh-jung (32) - AFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BSFC, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, IFCA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SCA, SEFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, VFCC, WAFCA Maria Bakalova (16) - AFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, HFCS, IFJA, LFCC, MCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCS, TFCA, UFCA Amanda Seyfried (4) - DFWFCA, IPA, LVFCS, PFCC Ellen Burstyn (2) - DFCS, NYFCO Jodie Foster (2) - AARP, GG Kosar Ali - BIFA Sônia Braga - ICS Glenn Close - NFCS Olivia Colman - AACTA Olivia Cooke - HFCS Dominque Fishback - AAFCA Phylicia Rashad - NAACP BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Raci (18) - AFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, COFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCA, NBR, NSFC, OFCC, SCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, StLFCA Daniel Kaluuya (17) - AAFCA, AFCA, CCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, LEJA, LVFCS, NFCS, OAFFC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SAG, SFCS, TFCA, VFCC Leslie Odom Jr. (9) - AWFJ, BFCC, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, NYFCO, OFCS, UFCA, WAFCA Sacha Baron Cohen (7) - AACTA, DFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, SEFCA Chadwick Boseman (5) - CIC, IPA, NAACP, NYFCC, PFCC Francisco Barreiro - ICS Demián Bichir - AARP D’angelou Osei Kissiedu - BIFA Shaun Parkes - LFCC Glynn Turman - LAFCA BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nomadland (20) - AFCA, AWFJ, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, SEFCA, USC, WAFCA One Night In Miami (6) - AAFCA, HCA, LEJA, LVFCS, PCC, PFCS The Father (5) - BIFA, IPA, NFCS, SCA, SDFCS I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (5) - BOFCA, BSFC, FFCC, StLFCA, UFCA First Cow (4) - DFCS, ICS, PFCC, SFBAFCC Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2) - BFCC, CIC Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - WGA News Of The World - NBR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Promising Young Woman (23) - AFCC, AWFJ, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA, WGA Minari (11) - AFCA, BFCC, DFCS, FFCC, LEJA, NBR, NCFCA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, TFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (10) - AACTA, AARP, CIC, DFCS, GG, HFCS, MCFCA, PFCS, UFCA, VFCC Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (7) - CFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, NSFC, NYFCC, OAFFC, WFCC The Forty-Year-Old-Version (2) - GOTHAM, NAACP Another Round - EFA Bacurau - ICS Fourteen - GOTHAM Judas And The Black Messiah - LVFCS BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Nomadland (33) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFWFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, OFTA, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Mank (4) - FFCC, IPA, OFCC, SCA Tenet (4) - BFCC, HFCS, NFCS, NTFCA Small Axe (2) - LAFCA, NYFCC Dwelling In The Fuchun Mountains - ICS First Cow - SFBAFCC Hidden Away - EFA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things - PCC Saint Maud - BIFA The Vast Of Night - KCFCC BEST COSTUME DESIGN Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HFCS, LVFCS, OFTA, PFCS, SFCS Emma. (3) - CFCA, LEJA, SDFCS The Personal History Of David Copperfield (2) - HCA, IPA Hidden Away - EFA Misbehaviour - BIFA BEST FILM EDITING Nomadland (10) - AFCA, AWFJ, BOFCA, GWNYFCA, LEJA, NDFS, OFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (9) - CCA, CIC, COFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, MCFCA, PFCS, UFCA Sound Of Metal (3) - CCA, LVFCS, OFTA The Father (2) - BIFA, LAFCA I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (2) - BSFC, CFCA The Invisible Man (2) - MCFCA, SDFCS Once More Unto The Breach - EFA Tenet - WAFCA The Wasteland - ICS BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, LEJA, MUAHS Birds Of Prey (2) - MUAHS, OFTA The Endless Trench - EFA Mank - HFCS Misbehaviour - BIFA Pinocchio - MUAHS BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Soul (30) - AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HMMA, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, NCFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SCL, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Tenet (4) - HMMA, IFJA, MCFCA, SCA Mank (3) - DFWFCA, HFCS, NDFS David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet (2) - HMMA, IFMCA Minari (2) - BSFC, HMMA Berlin Alexanderplatz - EFA Blizzard Of Souls - SCL The Call Of The Wild - IFMCA Fukushima 50 - IFMCA The Invisible Man - HMMA The Midnight Sky - IPA News Of The World - HMMA Nomadland - IFCA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - IFMCA Preparations To Be Together For An Unknown Period Of Time - ICS Wolfwalkers - IFMCA Wonder Woman 1984 - IFMCA BEST ORIGINAL SONG One Night In Miami (11) - CCA, CIC, DFCS, GFCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, OFTA, PFCS The Life Ahead (3) - GG, HMMA, IPA Eurovision (2) - HCA, SCL Giving Voice - HMMA Judas And The Black Messiah - LVFCS The Outpost - HMMA Over The Moon - NDFS Trolls: World Tour - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Mank (22) - ADG, BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, FFCC, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, IPA, LAFCA, LVFCS, MCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, OFTA, PFCS, SDFCS, SDSA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA Tenet (2) - ADG, SDSA Da 5 Bloods - ADG First Cow - SFBAFCC His House - BIFA Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - LEJA The Personal History Of David Copperfield - EFA Promising Young Woman - SDSA A Portuguesa - ICS Soul - ADG BEST SOUND Sound Of Metal (7) - BAFTA, DFCS, HFCS, ICS, IPA, LEJA, OFTA Little Girl - EFA The Reason I Jump - BIFA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Tenet (12) - BAFTA, CCA, DFCS, HFCS, HFCS, IPA, NCFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA The Invisible Man (6) - CFCA, CIC, HCA, LEJA, LVFCS, OFTA Mank - VES The Midnight Sky - VES Mulan - VES The One And Only Ivan - VES The Platform - EFA Possessor - FFCC Project Power - VES Soul - VES BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Soul (36) - AAFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BFCC, CCA, CIC, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, LEJA, LVFCS, MSFCA, NAACP, NBR, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, WAFCA Wolfwalkers (15) - AFCA, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, NYFCC, OAFFC, SDFCS, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA Josep (2) - EFA, ICS The Wolf House - BSFC BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Another Round (17) - AFCC, AWFJ, CFCA, EFA, GFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, PFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Minari (14) - AFCA, CCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, SFCS, VFCC La Llorona (6) - BSFC, HCA, IPA, LEJA, NBR, WFCC Bacurau (3) - BOFCA, NYFCC, TFCA Night Of The Kings (3) - AAFCA, BFCC, NAACP Collective (2) - AARP, NSFC The Life Ahead (2) - HFCS, SDFCS And Then We Danced - NDFS A Sun - HFCS Beanpole - LAFCA His House - CIC Identifying Features - GOTHAM Jumbo - PFCC Los Fuertes - FFCC Martin Eden - OFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Time (13) - AFCC, BFCC, DFWFCA, GFCA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, LAFCA, NBR, NYFCC, OFTA, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA Collective (10) - BSFC, CEHA, EFA, IPA, LFCC, OAFFC, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC Dick Johnson Is Dead (9) - CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, IFCA, IFJA, NCFCA, OFCS, UFCA Boys State (8) - AFCA, CIC, DFCS, LVFCS, OFCC, PCC, PFCS, WAFCA All In: The Fight For Democracy (5) - AAFCA, AWFJ, HCA, NDFS, NTFCA The Dissident (2) - KCFCC, NFCS My Octopus Teacher (2) - HFCS, PGA The Painter And The Thief (2) - AWFJ, BOFCA Beastie Boys Story - HFCS Class Action Park - HCA Crip Camp - IDA The History of the Seattle Mariners: Supercut Edition - SFCS Mucho Amor - LEJA John Lewis: Good Trouble - NAACP The Reason I Jump - BIFA A Secret Love - AARP The Social Dilemma - MCFCA Stuntwomen: The Untold Holywood Story -WFCC A Thousand Cuts - GOTHAM The Way I See It - NYFCO The Year Of The Discovery - ICS You Don't Nomi - FFCC AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
April 2021
Categories
All
|