By Ryan C. Showers 
​
It’s difficult for a film to grow a high profile without a coordinated effort to build a name for itself. Going to film festivals is an easy way for a movie aiming for awards season to gain great prestige and notoriety, but there are always a few stragglers who bypass the festival opportunities, or films that are simply not ready to be screened so early in the season. The best way for a non-festival late release to find success at the Oscars is by making a big splash upon release. I would argue that leaving an impression on one cohort of the Academy, in particular, is key to Oscar success for films that skip the festival circuit: the acting branch. The two examples of this that jump to mind are “American Hustle” and “Vice,” both released late in December of their respective years without festival exposure. The former received four acting nominations (one in each category) and the latter was awarded three. There were nominations across the board for “American Hustle” and “Vice,” but actors were the beating hearts of these films and the indisputable aspect that people who disliked the two could appreciate.

By Matt Neglia 

We're all heading for the grave. The infinite darkness that we all fear, hoping there will be something else instead. Another life? Possibly the afterlife? No matter how we live our lives, one way or another, we're going. As I continue to get older, the finality of death is something that I've continued to obsess over from a psychological standpoint, as I seek to understand how everyone approaches it. We deal with grief in our unique ways and I believe our own death carries its own foreboding grief that we all eventually need to come to terms with. Martin Scorsese's latest film "The Irishman" is a reckoning for its lead character, Frank Sheeran, as we watch him live a life of crime, loyalty, and betrayal. By the time he comes to the end of that life, he is filled with regret despite his own survival through the cold and vicious world of organized crime.  Scorsese's storytelling, through the final act of "The Irishman" and his haunting final shot, has lingered with me long after I saw it at its world premiere at this year's New York Film Festival. You've probably read my written review of the film and you've also probably heard our podcast review, but now I want to hone in on the thing that I think makes this particular gangster film, not just a great film in Scorsese's filmography but a great film for all time that could resonate strongly enough to win Best Picture.

By Ryan C. Showers 
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The way the Academy votes for Best Picture has dominated the awards season pundit discourse since the 2015 and, more prominently, 2016 Best Picture races. When the Academy expanded the Best Picture lineup from five to ten nominees, it implemented a preferential ballot, where voters rank the Best Picture nominees from their favorite to least favorite, and a process goes underway to find a “consensus” movie ranked highly enough by all the voters on their ballots. The Academy has since reversed course, allowing a range between five to ten possible Best Picture nominees from 2011 through the present day. The pundit community didn't think about the preferential ballot back then in the same way we do now. “The Hurt Locker,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Artist,” “Argo,” “12 Years a Slave,” and “Birdman” would have probably won just as easily if not more easily had the Academy voted with a plural ballot, where whichever film receives the most votes would be the winner.

By Michael Schwartz 
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As the Best Picture race continues to heat up, we must consider what categories will be swept along with top tier contenders. One such category that often aligns with Best Picture is Best Director. The Academy’s director’s branch is notoriously fickle and prefers to reward so-called “members of the club.” Yet when they manage to surprise, the results are often sensational.

​Let’s take a look at what filmmakers will be in the mix this season.

By Ryan C. Showers 

​Best Supporting Actress has shifted as a horserace in the few months into phase one (the film festivals) of the year. Though now that late-breaking December releases are helping to fill out this category a bit more than before, Best Supporting Actress is still very much up in the air. It’s exciting to have such unpredictability just a month out before phase two (the precursor awards) begins. This category will materialize based on how other related factors shake out. For example, depending on how intensely the Academy decides to support “The Farewell,” “Jojo Rabbit,” and “Bombshell” could dictate certain spots being filled quickly. Similarly, if voters remember to take seriously certain films, like “The Laundromat” and “Downton Abbey,” the trajectory of the category could be very fluid

By Matt Neglia 

​​As I said last week, I'm going to be devoting more time towards commenting on this year's awards race here rather than just on the podcast. The hope is that many of you will be able to get a more clear picture as to where my head is at as I continue to make my predictions this awards season. One such category that I've been thinking about a lot over these past few weeks since Telluride has been Best Actress. As of today, I have seen all of the Best Actress contenders with the exception of Saoirse Ronan in "Little Women." Knowing what I know and looking into my crystal ball, it is my belief that the path is beginning to clear for Scarlett Johansson to emerge as the winner on February 9th 2020 for her performance in "Marriage Story."

How did I come to this conclusion? Why do I feel so confident about it and what could possibly change my mind? We all want races for the Oscar to be competitive and this one very well could be. However, there are a few factors that have contributed towards my decision to settle on Johansson as the front-runner...

By Matt Neglia 

​​Over the past few years, I've devoted a lot of my time and energy to the Next Best Picture Podcast, to provide you with my explanations and thought process behind the Oscar race. One thing I want to try this year (if time allows), is to put that into writing as best as I possibly can for those who may not listen to the show (which you totally should by the way). So here we are, post-Gotham Nominations, less than a month away from Phase Two officially kicking off (the critics' awards) and I am here to survey the Oscar field.

By Lauren LaMagna 

Every awards season, one of two actors finds themselves in a unique situation where two or more of their films receive award season buzz. It is not uncommon, but it’s certainly a pleasant surprise. Throughout the years, respected actors have found themselves in this position like Kate Winslet in 2009 (for her works in “The Reader” & “Revolutionary Road”) and newcomers such as Jessica Chastain in 2011 ("Take Shelter," "The Tree Of Life" & "The Help"), Alicia Vikander in 2016 (“Ex Machina” & “The Danish Girl”). This year, one of the actors to find themselves in a strange yet exciting position is Scarlett Johansson, who is projected to earn her first Oscar nomination.

By Ryan C. Showers 

In the world of Oscar Buzz right now, there are two performances that are dominating the conversation: Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker” and Renée Zellweger in “Judy.” These performances are inextricably linked, despite out of the context of the world of awards season, they may appear to have nothing in common. They vary in ways, but they will likely proceed along the same trajectories for the next four months. It’s a very early, some may say irresponsible prediction that these are our Best Actor and Best Actress winning performances this year.

By Ryan C. Showers ​

The recent trend in awards seasons has seen very few films with late release dates make it through to a high amount of nominations. There are some obvious examples, like “American Hustle” and “Vice,” which both skipped the festival circuit and went straight to theatrical release in late December. But these are few and far between. The flip side of that is “Selma” and “The Post,” which were released too late in the game to gain the traction those films deserved. Over the past ten years, I would say this has been the overall trend. Festival exposure and pre-ordinated campaigns have become more essential than having a big release very close to Oscar voting. For example: In the early 2000s, mid- to late-December was considered to be the prime time for release. Take 2002 for example: all five Best Picture nominees were all released in December, 4/5 of them hit theaters in the second half of December, and 4/5 of them debuted in limited release for the first month in theaters. That’s a rule from the playbook of yesterday.

By Michael Schwartz 

As the New York Film Festival is underway and Telluride and Toronto have come and gone, the 2019 Best Picture lineup is beginning to take shape. After nearly claiming victory last year with Roma, Netflix is back with a vengeance in the form of three top tier contenders. Noah Baumbach’s "Marriage Story," Martin Scorsese’s "The Irishman" and Fernando Meirelles’ "The Two Popes," make up a lineup that seems to have something for everyone, at least if you’re an Academy member. Between a brilliant publicity team and star power enough to make the old studio system jealous, the big prize this year could be Netflix’s for the taking.

By Tom O'Brien ​

Thank God for documentaries. In a summer when few narrative features have clicked with art-house audiences (with only "The Last Black Man in San Francisco" and "The Farewell" really breaking through), it was a steady stream of top-notch documentaries that kept the lights on in many of the nation's limited-release movie theaters.

In 2018, five different documentaries ("RBG," "Free Solo," "Three Identical Strangers," "They Shall Not Grow Old" and "Won't You Be My Neighbor?") each grossed over $10 million in the U.S., an almost unheard-of achievement. Although no non-fiction film this year has reached that mark yet, the crop of 2019 documentaries have proven to be of very high quality, thus setting the table for what promises to be an extremely competitive race for this year's Best Feature Documentary Oscar. Several favorites are already playing in theaters, while many more, which have screened at film festivals, are awaiting release. Let's take a look at 10 that we have seen already that should not be forgotten come Oscar voting time.

By Will Mavity 

With James Gray’s interstellar sci-fi film "Ad Astra" receiving positive reviews as it opens in theaters this past weekend, there is, as always, the question of Oscar potential. While it is a default to say “The Academy” doesn’t go for sci-fi, that is not entirely true. Certainly, AMPAS are more predisposed to lean towards a period piece in Best Picture than it is a sci-fi, but across all 24 categories, especially in the below the line categories, sci-fi is better represented than one might expect. While it would be excessive to attempt to list “every sci-fi film ever nominated for ANY Oscar,” it is feasible to look at every movie about space travel ever nominated for an Oscar.

I have been liberal in my definition of space travel (IE is the film primarily set on one planet, but the protagonists had to travel through space to reach the planet, that would count). I will not include films set in “cyberspace” (“Ready Player One”) or films involving encounters with aliens who were merely hidden on earth (“The Abyss”). There needs to be some degree of actual travel through space in the film in order to qualify here. Films that are not sci-fi (“First Man” & “Apollo 13”) count, since they involve space travel, even if the space travel is not fictional. Finally, I will not be counting “special achievement” Oscars, but only competitive ones.

With all that said, here are the biggest takeaways.

By Ryan C. Showers ​

The schedule outlined in a typical awards season has produced a contradictory pattern: if you want to win, especially Best Picture, your film must be widely seen, yet it can’t be released too early as to be fresh in voters minds or become subject to controversies or a “frontrunner” status. In my mind, October would be the ideal time to fit this characterization. Think about “The Departed.” But even prime October releases from last year, “A Star is Born” and “First Man,” despite the unique qualities and success and failures of each film, were stilted by the time the Academy Awards came around. There is an incentive for the Oscar-contending films to grow a profile with moderate buzz at film festivals in September and October and then hit theaters in November and December. It seems to what worked for the success stories. Some recent examples are “The Shape of Water,” “Roma,” “The Favourite,” and “Green Book.”

By Will Mavity

Almost every Oscar season, we can count on at least a few films that offer pundits near-endless opportunities for haggling over whether or no a film constitutes an “Original Screenplay” or an “Adapted Screenplay” as defined by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

AMPAS offers a loose definition of what constitutes an adapted screenplay. And it is a definition that often differs with the definitions of other writing awards, such as the WGA, the USC Scripter, and BAFTA. Years ago, the Best Original Screenplay category was named “ Best Story and Screenplay - Based on Factual Material or Material Not Previously Published or Produced,” which would of course by extension mean that Adapted nominees were based on material that was in fact previously published or produced. Additionally, it left the door open for Screenwriters to argue (like "Spotlight") that though the film was based on extensive research into real-life facts, it was technically still an “Original Screenplay.” The specific title for Best Adapted Screenplay was previously “Based on Material from Another Medium.”

By Daniel Howat ​

With potential contenders “Jojo Rabbit” and “The Laundromat” getting decidedly mixed reviews out of Telluride and TIFF, are their Oscar hopes dead and buried? It may not be so simple. Reviews may be a strong indication of how well a film will last in awards season, while many films have overcome a tepid reception to score some Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the recent history of mixed reviews at the Academy Awards.

By Will Mavity 

After a good deal of anticipation (and controversy), Joaquin Phoenix’s standalone “Joker” film has premiered to primarily strong reviews. And for the most part, even reviews that do not praise the film itself praise Phoenix’s performance. There is a long way to go until Oscar Nomination morning, so it remains up in the air as to whether or not Phoenix will snag an Oscar nomination. Historically, the Academy has been cold towards superhero films in above the line categories ("Black Panther" notwithstanding). As such, there is an idea that awards season as a whole is unfriendly to superhero movie performances. What is interesting though, is that even if Phoenix does not make it all the way to the Oscars, history has shown that other awards season groups (especially regional critics groups) are much more friendly to superhero movie performances than AMPAS.  

Admittedly, superhero performances typically are relegated to obligatory mentions in the “best action movie performance” category at the critics choice awards (Robert Downey Jr. has like 5 of those). And of course, organizations like the Saturn awards, which specialize in sci-fi and horror films are friendly to them. But what we care about here, in regard to Phoenix, are which performances have gone beyond those areas to nominations in major categories from groups that we in the Awards world typically consider to be part of “awards season.”

By Ryan C. Showers ​​​

Happy August, Next Best Picture readers. And it is a happy time because we have yet to enter phase one of award season this year. Before the festivals begin and the films that go on to become big dogs in the awards conversation are actually screened for critics and audiences, everything is speculation. We’re all speculating right now. While some find this process annoying, others find it invigorating. Anything can happen at this point. And despite however the individual facts and trends develop once we really get started, sometimes you can sense larger trends in the structure of the season based on the information available at this point. There’s one grim trend about which that we all deserve a forewarning.

By Will Mavity 

​After the initial Twitter reactions to “The Lion King” dropped, there were many online saying “this has the Best Visual Effects Oscar in the bag” and “all other VFX contenders can go home now.”

And then the actual reviews dropped. And reactions were much much more divided. Some people blamed all of their problems with the film as a whole on the film’s effects. Terms like “uncanny valley” kept getting thrown around, along with comparisons to the Peter Cushing CGI work in “Rogue One.” And then people started thinking…maybe we’ve been looking at the wrong giant cat movie in this category. Maybe we should start looking at “Cats.” Surely, it will look bet-- Oh my god, kill it with fire!

So…obviously, the “Cats” VFX work is incomplete, and it could be dramatically improved by December - who knows. But right now, it seems like it might be too creepy looking to win the category as well. So who does that leave as viable contenders?

As far as I can tell, aside from “Cats” and “The Lion King,” neither of which are sure things, there are only 9 other films that feel as though they end up in the hunt to win the Visual Effects Oscar…and they all have detractors as well.

By Ryan C. Showers ​​

​I’m about to suggest something a few weeks ago I was dismissing right and left: Lupita Nyong’o could earn a Best Actress nomination for “Us.” As a disclaimer, I’m writing this piece before seeing “Us,” as to not bias myself and instincts based on an objective case that can be made for Nyong’o’s Best Actress chances. I’m writing this purely because I see potential in a possible staying power with this performance.