By Daniel Howat
After yesterday's Golden Globe nominations, today's SAG Award nominations are here to truly help us get a sense of where this season is headed. There were absolutely some surprises, some snubs, and at least one baffling moment. Let's break it all down and see how it could affect the Oscar race! Jared Leto Again?? Let's start with the most bizarre thing to happen all season long: Jared Leto just scored his second major nomination for his role in "The Little Things." I want to be clear; his performance isn't bad in the film. That's not why this is bizarre. It's just...so random. The film came out to middling reviews with little-to-no fanfare and seemingly no one singling out his performance. And yet, here we are now with Golden Globe and SAG nominations. It's a bit baffling, to be honest. My gut still tells me there's no way he can make it to the final lineup since he likely won't make it at Critics Choice, and he didn't make the BAFTA longlist. Still, we can't completely rule him out at this point. Chadwick Boseman Makes SAG History Alongside individual nominations for Best Actor for "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" and Best Supporting Actor for "Da 5 Bloods," Boseman snagged Ensemble nominations for those films as well. This is the first time any actor has scored four SAG nominations in a single year. Boseman is still the odds-on favorite to win this category both here and at the Oscars, though Hopkins will be a formidable competitor. Still, for me personally, I can't imagine a scenario where Boseman loses. These nominations continue to confirm that bet. For Those Still In Doubt: Glenn Close Is Winning I've been saying it for months now: Glenn Close is winning the Oscar. Today's nominees, or more accurately, those who were snubbed, confirm it. Despite very poor reviews for "Hillbilly Elegy," which certainly doesn't help, there is no clear frontrunner who could beat her to the win. Many have been saying Amanda Seyfried could win for her ingenue-esque role in "Mank," she failed to receive a nomination today. And for those pointing to Regina King's Oscar win after she failed to receive a SAG nomination: she was already far and away the frontrunner, so the SAG miss fueled her campaign to the win. The same can't be said for Seyfriend. Olivia Colman is Close's closest competition, but she just won an Oscar (defeating Close) two years ago. It's extremely unlikely she would win again for an underseen, under-campaigned film. The Oscar is Close's to lose, like it or not. What's Up With Supporting Actress? We've already covered Close's inevitable win, along with Seyfried's snub, but Supporting Actress had plenty of other surprises in store. First of all, those it seemed truly improbable just a few months ago, the likelihood of Maria Bakalova scoring an Oscar nomination is going up by the day. After yesterday's Globe nomination (in Lead Actress - Musical/Comedy) and today's SAG nom, it's hard to doubt her, especially when she's almost certainly winning the Globe. Additionally, Helena Zengel is doing well to battle against the inherent bias that award season typically has against child performers. I would call her a lock, but with Globe and SAG noms, she's in a very good spot. Alongside Seyfried, the biggest miss today was Ellen Burstyn, who also missed the Globe nomination. Not a good sign. Minari Gets Big Boost After a near-total shutout at the Golden Globes, "Minari" scored huge today. The film was nominated for Best Ensemble, Best Actor (Steven Yeun), and Best Supporting Actress (Youn Yuh-Jung). This is a desperately needed boost for the film that many expected to remain on the sidelines this season. Yuh-Jung has been received numerous critics awards, making her the critics favorite in her category, but with an understated campaign from A24 (to put it nicely), an Oscar nomination would be an uphill battle. The film needed this today to stay alive in the race, and it got exactly what it needed. No Delroy Lindo...Again! As surprised as many of us were yesterday to see Delroy Lindo left out, today hurt worse. While "Da 5 Bloods" was completely shut out at the Globes, SAG still nominated Boseman and the Ensemble, so why did Lindo get snubbed? It's really hard to say. I have a hard time seeing Yeun make the final lineup due to the languid campaign, and there aren't any competitors that feel strong enough to push him out. I still feel good about predicting Lindo to make the Oscar lineup, but these misses are troubling. Furthermore, Spike Lee missed the BAFTA longlist for Director, not a good sign. It's been a weird couple of days for this movie's awards hopes. The Trial Of The Chicago 7 Stays Steady Nothing unexpected happened with "The Trial of the Chicago 7," which is exactly where it needs to be. It scored two nominations: Ensemble and Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen). An Ensemble nomination is typically a great barometer for Best Picture, though there have been exceptions in recent years. Notably, "Nomadland" didn't get an Ensemble nomination today. So, if Best Picture is a race between "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and "Nomadland," does this hurt "Nomadland's" chances? Sort of, but not as much as you might think. In 2017 and 2018, "The Shape of Water" and "Green Book" became the first two films to miss an Ensemble nomination but still win Best Picture. "The Shape of Water" was an especially big miss in Ensemble, considering how many great performances are in the film. For "Nomadland," the Ensemble miss hurts a bit less, considering it's largely centered on one main performance from Frances McDormand. So I don't think this at all means "Nomadland's" chances are over. But it's unquestionably a heated race between "Nomadland" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7." Other Notable Moments:
There's still plenty of time before the Academy Awards nominations on March 15th, so this race is anything but over. There are more critics' groups, along with BAFTA and Critics Choice to come, so anything could happen. What were the biggest surprises for you this morning? Did these nominations confirm any of your predictions for the Oscars? Who did you think will win Ensemble? Chime in below in the comments section or over on our Twitter account. You can follow Daniel and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @howatdk
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BEST PICTURE The Power Of The Dog (33) - AACTA, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GG, HFCS, KCFCC, LEJA, LFCC, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCS, OFTA, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, UFCA, VFCC Belfast (7) - AARP, IFCA, IPA, LVFCS, PFCS, TIFF, WAFCA CODA (6) - CIC, HCA, NFCS, OSCAR, PGA, SAG Drive My Car (6) - BSFC, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SFCS, TFCA Licorice Pizza (5) - AFCC, GFCA, NBR, OFCC, StLFCA The Green Knight (2) - NTFCA, PCA Happening (2) - ICS, VENICE The Harder They Fall (2) - AAFCA, NAACP King Richard (2) - BFCC, BRA The Lost Daughter (2) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT After Love - BIFA Cyrano - DFCS Last Night In Soho - HFCS Mass - IFJA Pig - GWNYFCA Quo Vadis, Aida? - EFA Tick, Tick...Boom! - IPA Titane - CANNES The Tragedy of Macbeth - CACF West Side Story - GG The Worst Person In The World - IFSC BEST DIRECTOR Jane Campion (52) - AARP, AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, DGA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, ICS, IFCA, IFCS, IFJA, IFSC, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, LFCC, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PCC, PFCC, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, TFCA, UFCA, VENICE, WAFCA Denis Villeneuve (6) - AACTA, BFCC, CACF, HCA, NTFCA, VFCC Ryūsuke Hamaguchi (3) - BSFC, NSFC, SFCS Guillermo del Toro (2) - HFCS, NFCS Maggie Gyllenhaal (2) - GOTHAM, SPIRIT Jeymes Samuel (2) - AAFCA, BRA Paul Thomas Anderson - NBR Kenneth Branagh - PFCS Leos Carax - CANNES Alex Khan - BIFA Shaka King - NAACP Lin-Manuel Miranda - DFCS Steven Spielberg - LVFCS Jasmila Zbanic - EFA BEST ACTRESS Kristen Stewart (27) - AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFCS, IFJA, IPA, MFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA, WFCC Jessica Chastain (8) - CCA, DFCS, HFCS, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, OSCAR, SAG Olivia Colman (8) - AWFJ, GOTHAM, KCFCC, LFCC, OFCS, SFBAFCC, TFCA, VFCC Alana Haim (7) - AFCC, BSFC, COFCA, FFCC, GFCA, IPA, OFCC Penelope Cruz (5) - LAFCA, LEJA, NSFC, SDFCS, VENICE Tessa Thompson (4) - BFCC, BRA, CIC, NYFCO Nicole Kidman (3) - AACTA, AARP, GG Renate Reinsve (3) - CACF, CANNES, IFSC Lady Gaga (2) - IFCA, NYFCC Jennifer Hudson (2) - AAFCA, NAACP Joanna Scanlan (2) - BAFTA, BIFA Rachel Zegler (2) - GG, NBR Caitriona Balfe - SDFCS Jasna Duricic - EFA Lee Hye-yeong - ICS Emilia Jones - UFCA Taylour Paige - SPIRIT Agathe Rousselle - AFCA BEST ACTOR Benedict Cumberbatch (26) - AACTA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCS, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC Nicolas Cage (13) - AFCA, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCS, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NTFCA, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA Will Smith (12) - AAFCA, AARP, BAFTA, BFCC, BRA, CCA, GG, NAACP, NBR, OSCAR, SAG, WFCC Andrew Garfield (11) - CACF, CIC, GG, HCA, IFCA, IFSC, IPA, LEJA, OAFFC, VFCC, WAFCA Hidetoshi Nishijima (2) - BSFC, NSFC Simon Rex (2) - LAFCA, SPIRIT Adeel Akhtar - BIFA John Arcilla - VENICE Peter Dinklage - DFCS Adam Driver - FFCC Frankie Faison - GOTHAM Oscar Isaac - IFJA Caleb Landry Jones - CANNES Jack Lowden - ICS Denzel Washington - TFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Ariana DeBose (21) - BAFTA, CCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GFCA, GG, HCA, LAFCA, LEJA, LVFCS, MFCA, OAFFC, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SAG, SFCS Kirsten Dunst (11) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, IPA, NDFS, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC Ruth Negga (11) - CFCA, CIC, COFCA, GWNYFCA, ICS, LFCC, NSFC, NYFCO, PFCC, SDFCS, SPIRIT Ann Dowd (9) - CACF, HFCS, IFSC, KCFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, VFCC Aunjanue Ellis (8) - AAFCA, AARP, BFCC, BRA, CACF, NBR, NFCS, WAFCA Jessie Buckley (2) - BSFC, TFCA Caitríona Balfe - IFCA Judi Dench - AACTA Gaby Hoffmann - IFJA Kathryn Hunter - NYFCC Regina King - NAACP Marlee Matlin - HFCS Vinette Robinson - BIFA Tilda Swinton - NTFCA BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Kodi Smit-McPhee (31) - AACTA, AFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, LAFCA, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PFCC, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA Troy Kotsur (15) - BAFTA, BSFC, CCA, GOTHAM, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, LEJA, LVFCS, MFCA, NFCS, OSCAR, SAG, SPIRIT, VFCC Bradley Cooper (4) - AFCC, CACF, GFCA, TFCA Ciarán Hinds (3) - KCFCC, NBR, PFCS Jeffrey Wright (3) - CIC, NTFCA, PCA Jason Isaacs (2) - IFSC, SDFCS Talid Ariss - BIFA Jon Bernthal - DFCS Anders Danielsen Lie (2) - ICS, NSFC Colman Domingo - BRA Mike Faist - PCC Corey Hawkins - AAFCA Daniel Kaluuya - NAACP Jared Leto - AARP Vincent Lindon - LAFCA J.K. 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(2) - ACE, WAFCA The Harder They Fall - BRA In The Heights - SDFCS King Richard - ACE No Time To Die - BAFTA The Souvenir Part II - BIFA Summer Of Soul - LAFCA Titane - IFSC Unclenching The Fists - EFA The Velvet Underground - BSFC What Do We See When We Look At The Sky? - ICS Zola - SPIRIT BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Eyes Of Tammy Faye (7) - BAFTA, CCA, CIC, HCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR Cruella (5) - HFCS, IFSC, LEJA, MUAHS, NCFCA Being The Ricardos - MUAHS Coming 2 America - MUAHS The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain - BIFA Dune - MFCA Titane - EFA BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Dune (23) - AFCC, BAFTA, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GG, HCA, HMMA, IPA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, WAFCA The Power Of The Dog (14) - AFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, NDFS, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, SFBAFCC, UFCA Spencer (4) - BSFC, GWNYFCA, LVFCS, MFCA Parallel Mothers (3) - HMMA, IFSC, LAFCA Encanto (2) - LEJA, SCL The Harder They Fall (2) - BRA, HFCS The Addams Family 2 - HMMA Ali & Ava - BIFA Annette - ICS C'mon C'mon - HMMA Don't Look Up - HMMA Great Freedom - EFA The Green Knight - SCL Julia - HMMA A Quiet Place: Part II - HMMA BEST ORIGINAL SONG No Time To Die (18) - CACF, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GFCA, GG, HFCS, HFCS, HMMA, IFSC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PFCS, SCL Encanto (3) - GMS, IPA, LEJA Bruised - BRA CODA - HMMA Don't Look Up - SCL The Harder They Fall - IFCA King Richard - HCA PAW Patrol: The Movie - HMMA Rebel Hearts - HMMA BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Dune (14) - ADG, BAFTA, CCA, FFCC, GFCA, HFCS, LEJA, MCFCA, NCFCA, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDSA, WAFCA Nightmare Alley (8) - ADG, CIC, HCA, MFCA, NFCS, PFCS, SDFCS, SFBAFCC The French Dispatch (6) - CFCA, IFSC, NDFS, OFCS, SDSA, StLFCA No Time To Die (2) - ADG, SDSA The Souvenir Part II (2) - BIFA, ICS The Tragedy Of Macbeth (2) - BRA, IPA Barb And Star Go To Vista Del Mar - LAFCA Being The Ricardos - SDSA The Green Knight - SFCS Natural Light - EFA West Side Story - LVFCS BEST SOUND Dune (13) - BAFTA, CAS, IFSC, LEJA, MCFCA, MFCA, MPSE, NCFCA, NDFS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, SDFCS Boiling Point - BIFA The Innocents - EFA Last Night In Soho - HFCS Memoria - ICS Tick, Tick...Boom! - IPA BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Dune (25) - BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, HCA, HFCS, IFSC, IPA, LEJA, LVFCS, MCFCA, MFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NFCS, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCA, PFCS, SDFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, VES Spider-Man: No Way Home (2) - CIC, HFCS Dashcam - BIFA Lamb - EFA BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Mitchells vs. The Machines (33) - AFCA, AFCC, ANNIE, AWFJ, BFCC, BOFCA, CACF, CCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, KCFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NCFCA, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA Encanto (13) - AWFJ, BAFTA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, IFCA, IPA, LEJA, MFCA, NAACP, NBR, NDFS, OSCAR Flee (12) - BSFC, CFCA, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, IFJA, IFSC, LAFCA, PFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA The Crossing - ICS Luca - SDFCS Raya And The Last Dragon - NTFCA BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Drive My Car (34) - AFCA, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, IFSC, IPA, KCFCC, LFCC, MCFCA, NCFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, OSCAR, PCC, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, StLFCA, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (4) - BIFA, LVFCS, NDFS, UFCA The Hand Of God (4) - BFCC, FFCC, HFCS, PFCS The Worst Person In The World (4) - BOFCA, NYFCC, PCA, VFCC Parallel Mothers (3) - CIC, LEJA, SDFCS A Hero (2) - CACF, NBR African America - BRA Lamb - NTFCA Petite Maman - LAFCA Sheep Without A Shepherd - AARP Titane - PFCC BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Summer Of Soul (45) - AAFCA, AARP, AFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BFCC, BRA, BSFC, CCA, CFCA, CIC, COFCA, DFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, FFCC, GFCA, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, IPA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, NBR, NCFCA, NTFCA, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, SPIRIT, TFCA, WAFCA Flee (20) - AFCC, AWFJ, BOFCA, CACF, CEH, DFCS, EFA, GALECA, GOTHAM, IDA, IFSC, LEJA, NDFS, NFCS, NYFCC, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, StLFCA, VFCC Attica - DGA Barbara Lee: Speaking Truth to Power - NAACP The First Wave - UFCA Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck In Time - IFJA Mr. Bachmann And His Class - ICS Poly Styrene: I Am A Cliche - BIFA AuthorsNicole Ackman Archives
May 2022
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